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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�8�bjbj�n�n2��a��a�: ��""��8� l�dylyyyyy��x�x�x�x�x�x�x$�z�f]<�x9��x��yy4�xi$i$i$�� y�y�xi$��xi$i$i$y��w#4i$�xy0dyi$�]�#f�]i$i$�/�]�gtd��i$��x�x�#x��dy��]��"qs: world development volume 158, issue 10, october 2022 1. title: negotiating spaces of marginality and independence: on women entrepreneurs within ethiopian urbanization and water precarity authors: marina korzenevica, catherine fallon grasham, zo� johnson, amleset gebreegzabher, ... katrina jane charles abstract: in the context of the growth of ethiopia�s market economy the importance of women-owned enterprises is acknowledged, with barriers to economic success outlined in a limited number of studies. however, the daily struggles and embodied experiences of low-skilled women entrepreneurs in informal economies, as well as precarious and unequal intermittent water environments, have been insufficiently understood. we analyse how women strive for and negotiate their independence through spatiality and how services, specifically water, affect their ability to develop their business spaces. the evidence derives from five studies, using mixed methods, conducted in the small town of wukro, ethiopia. the methods used were household surveys, a water diary, and interviews with women entrepreneurs - owners of coffee, alcohol, and hair salons businesses. our study finds that they develop their businesses through the simultaneous presence of various, multilevel spaces of marginality/paradoxical spaces and articulation of independence as control over one�s business and body. unlike the positive term �empowerment�, the lens of negotiating �independence� integrates spaces of conflicting subjectivities, where marginality and resistance, suffering and claimed control, interpellation, and re-construction of own identities are simultaneously present. we suggest that water struggles are analysed not only through the evaluation of water shortages and unequal geographical sectorization but also through the perspective of �water precarity� (sultana, 2020) as in our study it was a water-induced lack of control over businesses and daily lives that caused the most suffering. we highlight that this multidimensional approach is pivotal in supporting women�s entrepreneurship and gender equality. 2. title: when clients vote for brokers: how elections improve public goods provision in urban slums authors: victoria paniagua abstract: does electoral democracy improve public goods provision for the poor? this paper considers whether and how the introduction of elections to choose slum-level representatives affects the provision of basic public goods and services in these communities. to address this question i take advantage of an unexpected interruption in the judicial process that introduced elections in urban slums in argentina. drawing on an original household survey, an expert survey, and insights from in-depth interviews, i show that the introduction of elections enhanced public goods and services provision only in slums with high organizational density. in such a context, existing organizational structures and citizens� organizational experience facilitated individuals� endeavors to demand and monitor the provision of public goods and the emergence of new leaders other than partisan brokers that skewed political competition towards the provision of public goods. these findings contribute to our understanding of the relationship between elections, organizational activity and public goods provision in urban informal settlements and have implications for development practitioners: under the right conditions, the democratic selection of slum intermediaries vis-�-vis the state can substantially improve the livelihood of these communities. 3. title: intersectionality, gender, and project-induced displacement in the informal city: the struggle over stormwater development in los platanitos, dominican republic authors: bj�rn sletto, alexandra magaly lamina luguana, kayla rakes, mary stycos abstract: despite the inclusion of gender assessments in climate action and disaster risk reduction and management (drrm) projects, gender is often conceptualized in dichotomous ways based on a poor understanding of situated realities and informal water related practices, leading to disempowering redevelopment strategies that replicate traditional gender roles. an intersectional approach allows for more nuanced analysis of the ways in which multiple identities, social roles, and economic, racial, and other markers of difference influence vulnerability, thus providing a better understanding of situated gender relations and the role of community-based organizations in shaping recovery capacities. a case study of a stormwater development project in los platanitos, santo domingo, dominican republic, illustrates how social impacts of project-induced displacement are both spatialized and contingent on situated markers of difference, including gender. women experienced a range of consequences and emotional responses to the project depending on age, marital and property rights status, and location of their demolished homes within the community. these impacts were mitigated by the efforts of the women-led community-based organization mujeres unidas to pressure state agencies to provide housing for displaced families and more genuine community representation in the project planning process. 4. title: the impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-saharan africa: a spatial panel data approach authors: lotanna e. emediegwu, ada wossink, alastair hall abstract: this paper reports estimates of the economic impact of changes in weather variables on sub-saharan african pearl millet yield based on panel data for 1970�2016. we control for spatial effects in all the components of our exposure�response function, plus a lag in time of the covariates through spatio-temporal econometrics techniques. our results indicate own-location weather variables have significant contemporaneous impacts on millet yield. specifically, we find that vapor pressure deficit, wet day frequency and temperature are important determinants of millet yield. in addition, accounting for spatial and temporal spillovers exacerbates and attenuates wet day cumulative effect, respectively, and local crop production is affected by neighboring countries� production. the results are robust to several sensitivity checks, including accounting for adaptation using long-term averages, and are consistent across country-income groups. we also use our estimates to forecast how crop production would respond to climate change in the mid-future. 5. title: transforming food systems through inclusive agribusiness authors: george c. schoneveld abstract: corporations and independent experts alike consider inclusive agribusiness (iab) instrumental to achieving sustainable and equitable development for small farmers. as businesses that productively integrate small farmers into commercial agrifood chains, iabs could help resolve some of the coordination and market and input access problems confronting many rural economies. they are therefore increasingly regarded as important private innovations to address systemic inequalities and inefficiencies within modern food systems. this article critically interrogates iab narratives inspiring recent policy innovations. by reviewing recent iab literature, discourse and strategies, as well as past iab scaling experiences, it shows that iab models such as contract farming and producer cooperatives are liable to discriminatory practices, uneven benefit capture and socio-ecological trade-offs, especially at scale. this article challenges iab orthodoxies and the unconsidered definitions, big-business biases and value creation assumptions pervading emergent iab policy discourse. it argues that in order for iabs to contribute to transformational change, the phenomenon deserves to be more explicitly positioned within a sustainable food systems framework. to help move the needle on iab scholarship and policy, this article reimagines iab along these lines. 6. title: commodity price fluctuations and child malnutrition authors: tseday j. mekasha, kiflu g. molla, finn tarp, jehovaness aikaeli abstract: in this paper, we empirically examine the potential impact of commodity price fluctuations on the nutritional status of children in the 0�5 age category. this is important as adverse shocks that children experience at the time of birth will have an irreversible long-term impact that can adversely affect subsequent human capital formation. unlike the bulk of the literature in the area that focuses on the impacts of drought-induced income shocks, we focus on changes in income caused by fluctuations in international coffee prices. we thus aim to estimate the potential impacts of international commodity price fluctuations on the nutritional status of children in commodity-export-dependent developing countries. to this end, we use the three waves of the tanzanian national panel survey (nps), together with data on international coffee prices. our results show that an upward coffee price fluctuation is associated with an improvement in childhood nutritional status in rural tanzania. this result is robust to the inclusion of household (sibling) fixed effects and data choices. the main result of our paper underlines the importance of international commodity price fluctuations for the wellbeing of communities in commodity-export-dependent countries. in the case of tanzania, for example, the coffee sector creates direct income for about 400,000 smallholder farmers who produce 90 percent of tanzania�s coffee, which is mainly produced for export. thus, if not well-managed, international commodity price fluctuations put a strain on the poverty reduction endeavors of developing countries that depend on exports of one or a few non-oil commodities. the results of the paper also have implications for goal number 2 of the sustainable development goals (sdgs) which aims to end all forms of malnutrition by 2030. 7. title: decentralization and local industrial policy in mexico authors: steven samford abstract: globally, local officials increasingly employ tools of industrial policy, once considered the prerogative of national governments. on one hand, some research suggests officials who are sensitive to the needs of local industry may be better able to design appropriate policy interventions. on the other, many studies of decentralization suggest that dynamics common to local discretion � including uneven capacity, capture by local elite, and narrow political motivations � may undermine effective industrial policymaking. there is little comparative scholarship that adjudicates between these potential outcomes by examining how local policymakers intervene in industrial development. accordingly, this paper examines how state governments used discretion allowed by a business development program in mexico (fondo pyme) to shape their own approaches to industrial development. it examines the design of state-level interventions under the fondo pyme and compares these interventions with effective industrial policies employed by so-called developmental states. quantitative evidence indicates a tendency for mexican states to use horizontal and passive interventions that address the immediate, short-term needs of local firms, rather than the targeted, risk-mitigating, conditional interventions that were historically effective for developmental states. these findings raise questions about how much local discretion will contribute to effective national industrial development policies. 8. title: taxing dissent: the impact of a social media tax in uganda authors: levi boxell, zachary steinert-threlkeld abstract: we examine the impact of a new tool for digital repression�a daily tax on social media use in uganda. using a synthetic control framework and exploiting the exogenous timing of the tax induced by the legislative calendar, we estimate that the tax reduced the number of georeferenced twitter users by 13 percent. the effects are larger for poorer and less frequent users. despite the overall decline in twitter use, tweets referencing collective action and observed protests both increased around the onset of the tax relative to the synthetic control. the high salience of the tax as digital repression and its impact on the composition of users are two potential mechanisms for this backlash effect. 9. title: climate change, comparative advantage and the water capability to produce agricultural goods authors: fabien candau, charles regnacq, julie schlick abstract: this article analyzes how climate change influences the exports of agricultural goods and the specialization of nations (e.g., comparative advantages) by altering farmers� capability to use available water. our main contribution is methodological since we present the first attempt to link precisely the micro-determinants of production to the macro-determinants governing the specialization of countries. we use a rich set of data both locally (at the crop level analyzing thousand fields that cover the earth�s surface) and at the global level (analyzing bilaterally the international trade of nations). at the local level, we estimate the elasticity of production to the thermal and hydrologic conditions (including blue and green water as well as groundwater storage) along with fixed effects (at country-product and at the crop level) to control for omitted variables. at the global level, we use the predicted value of these elasticities to compute an indicator of the water capability to export agricultural goods, which is then used in a trade gravity equation to control for trade costs that also shape the specialization of countries. from these estimates, we finally build an indicator of comparative advantage in agricultural goods and analyze how these relative advantages are affected by climate change in 2050. we present unexpected results at first sight, that are however in line with the ricardian theory, such as cases where a deterioration of the local conditions to produce a good does not prevent an improvement in the comparative advantage to produce it (representing 32.51% of cases in our simulation), or the reverse, when the improvement of the local conditions happens simultaneously with a deterioration of the comparative advantages (representing 18.16% of cases in our simulation). 10. title: long-term finance provision: national development banks vs commercial banks authors: bo hu, alfredo schclarek, jiajun xu, jianye yan abstract: despite its practical significance in promoting long-term economic growth, long-term finance is often in short supply, especially in developing countries. governments in both developed and developing countries have established national development banks (ndbs) to provide much-needed long-term loans. we have built the first database on ndbs worldwide to systematically examine whether ndbs lend longer than commercial banks in deciding the maturity of their loans. we find that long-term loans constitute a larger proportion of the total loan portfolio in ndbs than that in commercial banks in general and privately owned commercial banks in particular. this result is statistically significant after controlling for country- and bank-level factors. our study contributes to the literature on loan maturity because we are the first to use a comprehensive panel data to systematically examine whether ndbs�an understudied but important financial intermediary�play a maturity-lengthening role in filling the financing gap. 11. title: progressing gender equality in fisheries by building strategic partnerships with development organisations authors: sangeeta mangubhai, sarah lawless, anna cowley, jayshree p. mangubhai, meryl j. williams abstract: gender equality, a universal agreed principle and value, has been adopted widely but implemented to varying levels in different sectors. our study was designed to contrast how gender development (hereafter 'development') and fisheries sectors view and invest in gender, and then explore opportunities to strengthen collaborative relationships and networks between the two, with the aim of improving capacity for gender inclusion in practice in fisheries. we conducted key informant interviews with fisheries (n = 68) and development (n = 32) practitioners (including managers) in fiji, solomon islands and vanuatu between 2018 and 2019. we found three points of divergence between fisheries and development practitioners and/or their organisations when it comes to the inclusion of gender into their work: (1) fundamental differences in organisational motivations for working on gender � (i.e., fisheries organisations viewed gender equality as a means to achieve fisheries objectives (instrumental), while development organisations viewed it as a core value or principle (inherent); (2) fisheries practitioners had comparatively little to no access to qualified gender focal points and training, and limited networks with gender experts; and (3) differences in what each considered successful versus failed approaches to gender integration. our findings illustrate opportunities, as well as limitations or challenges (e.g. resistance and indifference), to transfer knowledge and capacity to integrate gender into fisheries policies and practice. we suggest using these divergences to �pivot change� in the fisheries sector by building on decades of knowledge, learning and experience from the development sector focusing on four areas for strategic partnership: (1) shifting values; (2) gender mainstreaming; (3) adopting gender best practice; and (4) investing in gender networks and coalitions. we argue that fundamental to the success of such a partnership will be the ability and willingness of fisheries and development practitioners and their organisations to break down silos and work collaboratively towards gender equality in the fisheries sector. 12. title: the cash crop revolution, colonialism and economic reorganization in africa authors: philip roessler, yannick i. pengl, robert marty, kyle sorlie titlow, nicolas van de walle abstract: in the 19th and 20th centuries, african economies experienced a significant structural transformation from the slave trades to commercial agriculture. we analyze the long-run impact of this economic transition focusing on the dynamic effects of: shifting geographic fundamentals to favor agro-climatic suitability for cash crops; infrastructural investments to reduce trade costs; and external forward production linkages. using agro-climatic suitability scores and historical data on the source location of more than 95 percent of all exports across 38 african states, we assess the consequences of these changes on economic reorganization across the continent. we find that colonial cash crop production had positive long-run effects on urbanization, road infrastructure, nighttime luminosity, and household wealth. these effects rival or surpass other geographic and historical forces. exploring causal mechanisms, we show that path dependence due to colonial infrastructure investments is the more important channel than continued advantages in agricultural productivity. however, these agglomerating effects were highly localized; we find limited evidence that commercial agriculture spurred broader regional growth, in contrast to other cash crop regions around the world. if anything, we observe in africa the economic gains accruing to cash crop zones came at the expense of nearby areas, which are worse off today than expected based on underlying characteristics. overall, our analysis has important implications for the debate on the long-run effects of colonialism on development in the region. rather than offsetting negative institutional effects, subnational extractive processes may have reinforced them by sowing economic and social inequalities. 13. title: ethnic diversity and forest commons authors: francisco m. barba, dany jaimovich abstract: the management of forest commons requires coordination within a community and between communities. this coordination is usually challenging given the incentives for free riding. the literature suggests that communities with heterogeneous members, particularly from different ethnic groups, are less effective in commons management and public goods provision. in this paper, we empirically test if forest degradation differs within and between ethnically diverse communities. using data for the majority of villages in rural gambia, our first set of results suggest that ethno-linguistic fractionalization within villages correlates with a reduction in forest cover and an increase in forest loss over a period of 15 years. then, we propose a new approach to assess forest management between heterogeneous communities. forest units within exclusively shared territory between pairs of neighboring villages are defined by dyadic polygons, which are used to apply dyadic regression methods. in our second set of results, we find evidence suggesting that spaces shared between ethnically distant communities exhibit higher forest cover and lower forest loss. further analyses suggest that the effect of ethnic distance on reduced forest degradation is present mainly when villages are heterogeneous in other characteristics as well. our study motivates the identification of relevant spaces for the analysis of competition over local commons, providing a novel approach of potential interest to applications beyond our area of study. 14. title: the unfolding of women�s economic empowerment outcomes: time path of impacts in an indonesia trial authors: mayra buvinic, james c. knowles, firman witoelar abstract: this paper makes the case that some interventions designed to improve women�s economic lives need to be tracked long enough for women to manifest new and beneficial behaviors. the study analyzes the time paths of the predicted impacts in a randomized trial providing financial incentives to bank agents (on the supply-side) and basic business training to women business owners (on the demand-side) to facilitate their access to and use of formal financial services. the trial took place over a two-year period in 401 villages in five regencies of east java province, indonesia. although predicted impacts of the treatments are positive and increasing over time for seven of eight economic empowerment outcomes analyzed, their time paths vary, with business profits and household income increasing sharply in the second year after increasing very little during the first year while business capital, improved business practices, personal savings and women�s agency increased linearly with time following treatment. a mediation analysis using a structural equations model finds significant direct and indirect effects between these economic empowerment-related outcomes: business practices, business capital and women�s agency contribute directly to increased business profits while personal savings, business profits itself and household income are indirect drivers; further, both treatments had a strong direct impact on household income that was reinforced by the direct effects of increased business profits. the article�s findings are consistent with other incipient evidence on the delayed effects of some interventions targeting women�s economic empowerment. they underline the need to measure impacts over a sufficiently long period, which in this case is at least two years after exposure to the treatments. 15. title: aid effectiveness: human rights as a conditionality measure authors: mustapha douch, huw edwards, todd landman, sushanta mallick abstract: the �aid conditionality� hypothesis as documented in the literature suggests that aid is effective in augmenting growth only in the presence of a sound policy environment. this hypothesis was so influential that its policy recommendation, to provide aid conditional upon recipient domestic policies, is currently the dominant oda allocation criterion. however non-economic dimensions of development (political and institutional) are increasingly seen as fundamental. for this reason, this paper focuses on the linkage between aid and a non-economic factor like human rights (reflecting repression and corruption) as a measure of aid effectiveness, in explaining growth outcomes across 42 least developed economies. we find that countries with better protection of human rights experience positive growth from aid receipts, signifying the role of stronger institutions in enabling more effective use of aid. the paper thus concludes that the measurement and monitoring of human rights provision is a useful tool in gauging the likely effectiveness of foreign aid. 16. title: presidential extraversion: understanding the politics of sino-african mega-infrastructure projects authors: yuan wang abstract: the past two decades have witnessed increasing scholarly analysis of china�s growing presence in africa. how does african agency operate within the asymmetric power relations between china and african states? how do african actors use foreign-sponsored projects to achieve domestic objectives? some analyses take a china-centered perspective, with divergent views about how chinese economic engagement promotes or inhibits african development. scholarly work increasingly recognizes the agency of african actors. i advance upon the african agency argument by proposing a concept of presidential extraversion. i argue that chinese-sponsored projects in africa have coincided with the host ruler�s strategies for political survival. internationally, african rulers have strategized among their available options to ensure that the state received foreign finance and services on the most favorable terms. domestically, they have instrumentalized chinese-sponsored projects and loans to demonstrate their performance legitimacy and sustain patronage networks. i process-trace the kenyan standard gauge railway and angolan kilamba kiaxi housing project, primarily relying on evidence collected in kenya, angola, and china from 2017 to 2019. the findings challenge the neo-dependency argument and show that despite sino-african power asymmetry, african leaders have had the agency to shape this relationship to their advantage. the presidential extraversion argument advances upon african extraversion theory by locating the agency within the african political leaders rather than elites broadly. 17. title: �what�s in the middle�: scratching beneath the surface of the middle class(es) in brazil, c�te d�ivoire, turkey and vietnam authors: matthieu cl�ment, eric rougier, jean-philippe berrou, fran�ois combarnous, dominique darbon abstract: the term �middle class� is increasingly used to qualify the mass of people in developing countries who are neither poor nor rich and share consumption patterns historically associated with the western middle class. however, what differentiates them from the ideal-typical middle class, as well as the extent to which emerging middle classes differ across developing countries, has only been marginally documented by economists to date. this article proposes to scratch beneath the surface of the so-called middle-class that is burgeoning in developing countries by documenting the commonalities and differences hidden by the all-encompassing term of �middle class� for a set of developing countries exhibiting different levels of income, economic structures and socio-political systems: brazil, c�te d�ivoire, turkey and vietnam. relying on quantitative and qualitative micro-economic data, our paper compares the objective characteristics (occupation, education, income), behavior and subjective expectations of the people standing in the middle of the income distribution in the four countries. four main research questions structure the paper. where is the middle? how is the middle specific? who is in the middle? what does the middle aspire to? results show that the middle-income group in each country covers distinct realities. although some similar characteristics and behaviors are observable, our results reveal a strong heterogeneity within each national middle class, with no fewer than four to seven socio-economic subgroups, and strong country-specific traits as most of the subgroups are deeply rooted in the country�s specific historical trajectory. in each country, our analysis also unveils a pattern of bipolarization between a rather affluent and stable middle class and a �new� or more vulnerable one. finally, middle class members appear to be characterized by an individualist positioning and the absence of a marked political commitment, challenging the common assumption that developing countries� middle classes are agents of political change. 18. title: armed conflicts, forced displacement and food security in host communities authors: justin george, adesoji adelaja abstract: in the last decade, the number of forcibly displaced people increased dramatically globally. in africa, conflict has been one of the primary sources of forced displacement. very few studies have examined the micro economic impacts of forced displacement on household welfare outcomes in host communities, especially on food security. in this study, we investigate how the inflow of internally displaced persons (idp) impacts on household-level food security outcomes in nigeria, a country that has experienced significant displacements due to the boko haram insurgency, farmer-herder conflicts and other communal conflicts. to uncover the hypothesized effects, we use an instrumental variable (iv) approach, where a spatially weighted idp outflow variable is used as an instrument for the main independent variable. we find that idp influx negatively impacts the household level food security conditions in host communities. we specifically uncover differential impacts of displacement drivers such as armed conflicts, natural disasters and communal violence. the results are consistent across alternate model specifications and sensitivity analyses. 19. title: sanitation and work time: evidence from the toilet revolution in rural china authors: dongqin wang, yanni shen abstract: in 2020, 46% of the global population lacked safely managed sanitation services. poor sanitation may lead to health problems and restrict economic activities. this study is the first to focus on the government-subsided toilet revolution in rural china and empirically investigates the causal effects of sanitation coverage increase on labor supply in developing countries. using the china health and nutrition survey data, we exploit the temporal and regional variation during the revolution and employ a difference-in-differences methodology. our study finds that rural households with access to clean flush toilets significantly increase their work time by 0.253�0.431 h/day, and the effects are more prominent among women than men. as for the mechanism, clean toilets significantly decrease housework related to cleaning the house and raising livestock and poultry, allowing people to reallocate their time and invest more into work, which is more salient for women. our findings highlight the importance of sanitation coverage in improving the economic outcomes in the rural areas of china. for policymakers concerned with the provision of sanitary facilities and the supply of labor force in developing countries, this study indicates that improved sanitation facilities also unexpectedly increase labor supply, particularly for women. 20. title: does project-level foreign aid increase access to improved water sources? evidence from household panel data in uganda authors: lynda pickbourn, raymond caraher, l�once ndikumana abstract: empirical evidence from cross-country studies on the effectiveness of aid to the water, sanitation and hygiene sector (wash aid) points to significant heterogeneity across countries and highlights the need for further research at the sub-national level to assess and quantify the effectiveness of wash aid within countries. this paper combines geocoded sub-national data on the location of wash aid projects in uganda with nationally representative household-level panel survey data to examine whether proximity to aid-funded wash projects improves household access to water. access to water is evaluated along three dimensions: access to an improved water source, travel time to an improved water source and waiting time at an improved water source. the results of a difference-in-difference regression analysis suggest that while aid-funded wash projects increase household access to improved sources of water, households may also see the time burden of water collection increase, as they may need to travel longer distances and also experience longer wait times due to congestion at water service points. this is an indication that the supply of improved water sources financed by wash aid in uganda remains insufficient relative to demand as measured by the population density. 21. title: state capacity, economic output, and public goods in china authors: hua cheng, kishore gawande, shusen qi abstract: we attempt a causal examination of the role of state capacity in driving public goods provision and economic performance across regions in china. to identify the geographical variation of state capacity in modern china, we use historical variation in population losses arising from three concurrent rebellions during 1851�1880 as an instrument. these wars enhance governments� ability to collect taxes and create institutions upon which the modern state capacity of china�s local governments rests. in counties with one standard deviation stronger state capacity, socio-economic activities are almost 84 percent higher. this increase in economic performance is due to higher government spending, resulting in better provision of public goods and more incentivized private investment. 22. title: the long-term effects of early european settlement on local development: evidence from indonesia authors: rossi rizki bestari, yusuf reza kurniawan, muhammad halley yudhistira abstract: this study addresses the long-term effects of early european settlement on today�s regional economic development in areas of indonesia in which such settlements have been ubiquitous for more than three centuries. to establish a potential causal relationship, we exploit variations in the year that settlement began at the district level. we find that while the overall impact of the length of the settlement has a significant negative association with per capita gdp, the impacts are heterogeneous across regions. longer exposure to settlements negatively (positively) affects per capita gdp today for districts outside java (in java). longer exposure to settlements is associated with: (i) lower poverty level and poverty gap and (ii) lower birth attendance and morbidity rate. we partly explained our findings using the institutional transfer channel via improvement in the education infrastructure. our findings imply that the increased accumulation of human capital might have a long-term impact on economic performance in the present through productivity and improvement in the quality of institutions. 23. title: csr and local conflicts in african mining communities authors: selina bezzola, isabel g�nther, fritz brugger, erwin lefoll abstract: recent research finds that the opening of mines in africa increases the risk of local protests and conflict. however, few empirical studies have analysed the effect of �corporate social responsibility� (csr) of mining companies on conflicts in extraction areas. this study investigates the relationship between csr payments and conflicts in african mining communities using econometric techniques. we create and explore a large dataset on csr payments by 292 mining companies across 17 african countries and eight years. our study finds that mining companies are more likely to engage in csr activities when they are exposed to conflict in their areas of operation in previous years. once conducted, csr activities attenuate tensions. however, csr does not lead to lower levels of conflict than in mining areas that have never received any csr. the latter might be less in �need� of csr to manage operational risks in the first place. these findings support the view that mining companies engage in csr activities to counter operational risks associated with local conflict, but that the effects are moderate. 24. title: convergence in resource productivity authors: philip kerner, tobias wendler abstract: are countries converging to the same levels of productivity in transforming natural resources into economic output? this question is of high importance as it determines the need for policy intervention in the pursuit of sustainable economic development. in this paper, we explore convergence patterns in resource productivity across more than 100 countries between 1970 and 2012. additionally, we analyze the role of fundamental factors for convergence patterns and compare these patterns to labor productivity. instead of overall convergence, our findings show club convergence in resource productivity, with convergence clubs closely mirroring levels of economic development. the clubs converge towards the same growth rates, not the same levels of productivity. we find that initial levels of gdp per capita, human capital, and population density are strongly associated with club membership. there are noticeable differences between the convergence patterns of labor and resource productivity. democracy, human capital and temperate climate are particularly strong predictors for club membership in the case of labor productivity, whereas population density is exclusively associated with club membership for resource productivity. 25. title: national policies encounter municipal realities: a critical analysis of the outcomes of the list of priority municipalities in curbing deforestation in the brazilian amazon authors: paulo eduardo dos santos massoca, eduardo sonnewend brond�zio abstract: at the peak of amazonian deforestation in the mid-2000s, a suite of initiatives to curb deforestation was implemented, narrowing their scopes to particular agents, critical municipalities, and economic activities and supply chains. the list of priority municipalities (lpm) launched in 2008 became a central tenet of these efforts. it requires local agents in listed municipalities to individually and collectively reduce deforestation and implement a comprehensive farm-geocoding registry across the municipality. we combine region-wide spatial�temporal land-cover analysis and census data with in-depth fieldwork to examine the lpm policy at regional and municipal levels, discussing the policy's limitations in inducing effective responses across diverse municipalities. at the regional level, our study presents a new historical-geographic categorization and map of 530 amazonian municipalities. we propose four regional clusters of municipalities according to patterns of deforestation, agricultural activities, demographic and agrarian structures, emancipation history, and socioenvironmental protection. we draw on this analysis to contextualize the trajectories of the 62 listed municipalities within the region�s moving deforestation frontier and discuss why many of the achievements observed locally have not been replicated regionally. at the municipal level, we investigate four case studies in-depth to unveil the factors underlying the lpm policy mixed outcomes. we discuss how local agents� responses to the lpm policy are context-specific, reflecting their perception of trade-offs between the economic impacts of sanctions, incentives to collaborate, and potential benefits arising from environmental compliance. we detail and discuss how dynamic macro-political and institutional settings altering law enforcement mechanisms and market incentives interact with subnational environmental governance, either facilitating or inhibiting individual and collective actions locally. finally, we discuss the role of inter-institutional collaboration and coordination among command-and-control policies, market-oriented initiatives, and incentives for local collective actions in triggering incentives for land-use and governance innovations against deforestation, both locally and regionally. 26. title: global food price surge, in-kind transfers and household welfare: evidence from india authors: digvijay s. negi abstract: this paper studies the impact of high global rice and wheat prices on household welfare in india. i use the 2007�08 surge in global food prices and household share of area under rice and wheat at the baseline to show that rice and wheat cultivating households gain from high prices. these welfare gains mainly accrue to net producers. i observe that net producer households were able to maintain their per capita spending and consumption of rice and wheat by decreasing consumption of market purchased rice and wheat and increasing consumption of government-subsidized rice and wheat. net consumers, on the other hand, experienced a decline in the total per capita consumption of rice and wheat even though they substituted their market purchases with homegrown produce and subsidized grains. the role of in-kind food transfers in insulating households from high prices was evident for both net producers and consumers. the combined effect of substitution within food staples from different sources was that both net consumer and producer households could maintain their total calorie intakes and resist an increase in the total food expenditure. finally, i find evidence that high rice and wheat prices induced working-age adult males in net producer households to increase total workdays and workdays on their own farm. 27. title: the impacts of maternal migration on the cognitive development of preschool-aged children left behind in rural china authors: yu bai, ning yang, lei wang, siqi zhang abstract: preschool-aged children account for over 38 per cent of those left behind. previous research suggests that maternal migration during early childhood may create a greater negative impact, however, the literature on the effect of maternal migration on cognitive development of preschool aged children is rare. this study uses a unique panel dataset following children from infancy to 63 months and their caregivers to estimate the causal effects of maternal migration on the critical cognitive development of children left behind. we find that maternal migration increases the probability of cognitive delay by six percentage points. possible mechanisms include a generational shift in parenting and feeding practices leading to reduced engagement in stimulating activities and dietary diversity. to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the causal effects of maternal migration on cognition during the first six years of life in rural china. 28. title: does accountability enhance service delivery? assessment of a local scorecard initiative in uganda authors: wil hout, natascha wagner, binyam a. demena abstract: this article assesses whether the local government council�s scorecard initiative, implemented in uganda since 2009, achieved its intended impact of enhancing service delivery by providing information on the performance of local government. we analyse a district-level panel dataset (2005�2016) with administrative data, as well as afrobarometer data on citizen perceptions (2005�2017). empirically, we exploit the phasing in of the scorecard for a meticulous difference-in-difference framework with district-specific trends. the results show some small measurable impacts of the scorecard along the so-called �long route of accountability� on public service delivery. scorecard districts appear to spend less of their budgets in comparison with non-scorecard districts. this points to greater budgetary restraint of local government councils in scorecard districts. although no direct impacts on service delivery can be detected, districts with more electoral competition in their constituencies perform better on one service-delivery indicator, the primary school leaving exam pass rate. concomitantly, the scorecard impacts on perceptions of corruption, as citizens of scorecard districts perceive the local councillors as less corrupt compared to citizens of non-scorecard districts. this result can be interpreted as an indication of the trust-enhancing effect of government scorecards and civic engagement. overall, our results provide a quantitative contribution to the literature on accountability by demonstrating that civil society reporting mechanisms about the performance of political representatives only trickle down slowly to improved services. the findings suggest that the sustained implementation of instruments to provide citizens with more information about their political representatives may have a positive impact on civil society perceptions as well as relevant political and policy outcomes. like earlier research, we find that impacts also depend on political competitiveness, thus highlighting the positive role of democracy. 29. title: female autonomy generated successful long-term human capital development: evidence from 16th to 19th century europe authors: joerg baten, alexandra m. de pleijt abstract: does higher female autonomy increase human capital formation? to find out, we employ novel data on numeracy as a proxy for human capital and the demographic indicator female age at marriage as a measure for female autonomy for 27 countries and 153 regions in europe between 1500 and 1900. our empirical analysis shows that countries and regions with a relatively high level of female autonomy became success cases and pioneers in long-term human capital development. because women had an advantage in dairy-farming, we approach endogeneity issues by exploiting variation in gender-biased agricultural specialization. 30. title: the confusions of democracy: the arab spring and beyond authors: daniel w. bromley abstract: celebration of democracy makes it politically difficult to extend development assistance to poor countries for fear of appearing to support non-democratic regimes. unfortunately, there is little evidence that democracy fosters economic development. democracy is insufficient in the absence of instrumental transmissions mechanisms that are capable of reciprocating the �upward� expression of livelihood aspirations back �down� to households so that life prospects might improve. most developing countries�regardless of their political attributes�lack such transmission mechanisms. the arab spring revolts of 2010�11 have been hailed as popular demands for democracy. the empirical evidence from two econometric specifications�logit and a linear probability model�fail to support that claim. rather, general anger and frustration at defective life prospects�high unemployment, delayed marriage, reduced population growth, high inflation, and low economic growth�are revealed as highly statistically significant reasons for the revolts. five countries experiencing revolts�egypt, libya, stria, tunisia, and yemen�all showed trajectories of increasing alienation in the decade leading up to 2010. the international donor community must find a way to support economic development in regimes that lack the full complement of democratic ideals. otherwise, defective livelihoods will continue to spawn political revolts. 31. title: designing development interventions: the application of service design and discrete choice experiments in complex settings authors: matthew osborne, fiona lambe, ylva ran, naira dehmel, ... arjan verschoor abstract: the persistence of problems such as endemic poverty, rising inequalities, climate change and biodiversity loss demands us to find solutions which are embedded in a highly complex web of interacting social, technological, and ecological processes. service design (sd), an approach to directly involve citizens in the development and improvement of services and systems, shows promise as a tool to support the design of interventions to address complex development challenges in the global south. in this paper we describe how service design was used alongside discrete choice experiments (dces) to inform the design of a weather index insurance product for small holder farmers in uganda. as part of the service design process, we used archetypes to capture and articulate the multiple vulnerabilities of farmers and quickly test prototype insurance packages to identify important design features. dces tested promising design features in a manner that complemented as well as triangulated the service design phase. the results of both phases were used to inform the design of a wii product that has been taken up by major insurance providers in uganda. the approach complements and builds on qualitative work typically done to inform dces by opening up space for research participants to question core assumptions, and by involving respondents directly in the process of designing a future service. 32. title: consolidating and improving the assets indicator in the global multidimensional poverty index authors: frank vollmer, sabina alkire abstract: this article traces a methodological path for constructing a statistically and normatively validated assets indicator, that in turn can be used within an internationally comparable measure of multidimensional poverty. the article validates a revision to the assets indicator of the global multidimensional poverty index (global mpi) that makes the best possible use of existing data. our normative focus is shaped by amartya sen�s capability approach, framing assets in relation to human activities. but surprisingly few asset items were available for 75 countries and 3.5 billion people, the standard set for indicator revisions, so the paper notes the lack of comparable data, as well as the lack of data on the quality, quantity or gendered ownership of assets. drawing on empirical antecedents and complemented by normative reasoning, this article uses tetrachoric exploratory factor analysis, multiple correspondence analysis, classical test theory, item response theory and a non-parametric mokken scale procedure to identify a set of items that proxy asset deprivations. measures were trialled across 26 purposefully-selected countries. the final counting-based assets index includes nine statistically validated items (adding computer and animal cart to the original global mpi assets indicator). it has higher reliability than other options, and is arguably the most rigorous feasible indicator to compare asset deprivations that can be constructed from existing global mpi data sources. the methodological approach outlined here could be used to design and validate assets indicators within national, regional, or bespoke multidimensional poverty measures elsewhere. 33. title: impact of a homestead food production program on women's empowerment: pro-weai results from the faarm trial in bangladesh authors: jillian l. waid, amanda s. wendt, sheela s. sinharoy, abdul kader, sabine gabrysch abstract: nutrition-sensitive agricultural programs have the potential to improve women's and children's nutrition, along with women's empowerment. the project-level women's empowerment in agriculture index (pro-weai) aims to standardize the measurement of women's agency and enable the assessment of impact over typical project timelines. within the food and agricultural approaches to reducing malnutrition (faarm) cluster-randomized controlled trial in rural habiganj, sylhet, bangladesh, we examined quantitative pro-weai data collected from a subsample of trial participants and their husbands (n = 885) approximately four months after the end of the intervention. we evaluated the impact of a three-year homestead food production program on men�s and women's agency separately by pro-weai domain and indicator, using multilevel logistic and linear regression. we show that women in the faarm intervention group had levels of agency similar to men and much higher than women in the control group (odds ratio [or] 7.7, p < 0.001), corresponding to better gender equity in intervention areas (or 3.5, p < 0.001). the higher levels of agency among intervention women were driven by greater intrinsic and collective agency but not by instrumental agency. compared to controls, more women in the intervention group found intimate partner violence unacceptable (or 3.5, p < 0.001), had greater ownership of assets (or 2.6, p = 0.001), better control of income (or 1.8, p = 0.042), higher levels of group membership (or 14.0, p < 0.001), and membership in groups they considered influential (or 166.8, p < 0.001). self-efficacy was greater in intervention areas for both women (or 3.2, p < 0.001) and men (or 2.3, p = 0.002). our results contribute to the development of benchmarks for interpreting pro-weai scores across programs. our assessment of the impact of a homestead food production program on women's agency provides additional rationale for women-led agricultural projects. we plan to build on these findings by examining the role of improved women's agency on the pathway from the intervention to nutritional impacts. 34. title: farmers� perspectives and context are key for the success and sustainability of farmer-managed natural regeneration (fmnr) in northeastern ghana authors: matt kandel, daniela anghileri, rahinatu s. alare, peter n. lovett, ... kate schreckenberg abstract: restoring degraded landscapes is critical for achieving global environmental and development goals, and agroforestry is increasingly promoted as a nature-based solution to land degradation. farmer-managed natural regeneration (fmnr) is an agroforestry-based approach for restoring degraded agricultural land and it has been widely implemented in african drylands. however, a recent systematic review found significant gaps in the evidence base for fmnr, including that its upscaling has been based on inadequate understandings of local contexts. furthermore, studies reporting on farmer adoption of fmnr have mainly relied on quantitative data from household surveys, resulting in limited understandings of what motivates farmers who practice fmnr. this paper draws on the results of a qualitative study in northeastern ghana to address two questions: 1) how and why do farmers practice fmnr? and 2) how does context influence farmers� rationales for practicing fmnr? we found that farmers grounded their perspectives on the utility of fmnr in nuanced understandings of the local farming and land and tree tenure systems. the results of our study also demonstrate how farmers� decision-making was situated within socially and agroecologically differentiated contexts, which were conditioned by long-term, multi-faceted change in the region. we conclude that in spite of the rush to scale up fmnr, more attention should be directed to assessing where, when, and for whom fmnr might be appropriate. such assessments should be grounded in resource managers� preferences, local agricultural and land and tree tenure systems, and the requisite biophysical conditions for fmnr. to support these efforts, we propose an fmnr suitability assessment framework, based on our findings and those from related studies. as landscape restoration is scaled up globally, initiatives should be informed by evidence demonstrating how and why resource managers might practice a restoration activity as well as how context influences their choices. 35. title: lost in transition? modernization, formal education and violence in karamoja authors: simone datzberger abstract: there is a shift from pastoralism towards agro-pastoralism and systematized agricultural production in karamoja, a sub-region of uganda. at the same time, aid agencies and the government want to formally educate the karamojong, in line with global education norms and policies. this creates a lot of ambiguities and in-betweens for the karamojong as formal education impels sedentarization and socio-economic division. the karamojong have a long history of using resistance to formal education as a tool to protect their pastoralist lifestyle and cultural values. this paper sheds light on the complex and often violent intersections of modernization, development and formal education. it argues that while formal education has delivered some benefits to the karamojong, it has also led to multiple forms of violence, aid paradoxes and dead ends. the karamojong�s relationship with formal education is shaped by resistance, cultural repression, irrelevance and structural violence. if pastoralism ought to be invigorated in karamoja, there is an urgency to rethink the purpose and potential of formal education in the region. this includes to build on, expand and re-invest in locally developed, flexible and alternative learning programmes that are more suited to fit the everyday lives and realities of the karamojong. 36. title: what do we know about rural and informal non-farming labour? evidence from a mixed methods study of artisanal and small-scale mining in northwest tanzania authors: julian m. goetz abstract: despite its relevance for millions living in rural areas in the global south, scholarly knowledge on the dynamics and structure of informal non-farming rural labour and its impact on poverty is limited. however, such knowledge is paramount for programming effective poverty-reduction and formalisation policies. this article investigates such dynamics through the lens of artisanal and small-scale gold mining (asgm) by analysing two case study sites in northwest tanzania. it presents and analyses qualitative and quantitative primary data collected during five months of fieldwork, drawing on political economy analysis. the article empirically challenges both scholarship championing self-employment as the main and only informal labour relation in the global south as well as literature portraying asgm as potentially poverty-reducing. its main argument is that waged labour is common in asgm and that the type of asgm job linked to a specific labour relation translates into heterogeneous labour market outcomes. the article shows that a number of asgm jobs such as waged processing activities feature heterogeneous and much lower incomes than the high average incomes for diggers reported by previous contributions. moreover, it finds that workers alternate between waged and self-employment. both dimensions are important, because two-thirds of the sampled asgm labour force engage in waged labour and one-third in processing tasks. the article empirically grounds the debate on informal non-farming rural labour markets. in so doing, it highlights that understanding internal differentiation and labour market structures is paramount for formalisation processes given the different needs of distinct groups. lastly, this study emphasises the necessity to combine qualitative and quantitative data for work on the nexus of labour markets and poverty. 37. title: a novel measure of developing countries' agricultural and food policy readiness authors: james f. oehmke, sera l. young, allen w. heinemann, mandivamba rukuni, ... lori a. post abstract: positive agricultural and food policy environments are critically important to the success and inclusiveness of agricultural growth and transformation. despite the catalytic potential of enabling policies, countries vary in their willingness, capacity, and ability to improve policy: in other words they have varying degrees of policy readiness. the profession has spawned a plethora of 'policy readiness' indices over the past decade. these indices are welcome first steps, but they are non-statistical compilations of a collection of inherently different measures with unclear relationships: to borrow ravallion's term, they are mash-up indices. in this paper we propose a novel, empirically-based policy readiness index. in contrast to prior literature, we approach the problem from a measurement perspective. this perspective enables us to aggregate items into a multi-component index such that their combination achieves superior statistical properties and assures cross-country comparability, through the application of rasch modeling. with these empirical qualities, the meaning and robustness of the scores then become clear. we apply the model to a unique data set of policy actions prioritized in 2012/13, and the extent to which these actions were executed by fall of 2015. the results are statistically- and measurement-valid measures of both country policy readiness and the degree of difficulty of various dimensions of policy actions. the resulting policy readiness scores are a novel index that significantly advances the dialogue on countries' abilities to execute those agricultural and food policy changes that are priorities for accelerating agricultural transformation. policy implications include continued support for capacity building in low-readiness countries and cross-country support through continental or global processes for lowering the burden across all countries of making progress in the most difficult policy areas. 38. title: who communicates the information matters for technology adoption authors: cans1n arslan, meike wollni, judith oduol, karl hughes abstract: the role of information in agricultural technology adoption in developing countries has been widely documented in the literature, but much less is known about the importance of the identity of the communicator of the information. we conduct a randomized experiment to assess the effects of information delivered through two approaches wherein either a peer farmer or a market actor supports the extension worker in communicating the standardized information regarding product-quality-enhancing practices and high-value market participation. results show that farmers in the peer-farmer treatment arm improve the quality of their produce, whereas farmers in the market actor treatment participate in high-value markets to a larger extent than the extension-worker-only treatment farmers. we document positive but marginal treatment effects on coffee revenues. this study contributes to the literature by testing whether incorporating non-traditional communicators, such as private sector actors, into the extension programs is effective in removing the informational barriers to agricultural technology adoption. 39. title: spatial interdependence and spillovers of fiscal grants in benin: static and dynamic diffusions authors: rose camille vincent, victor osei kwadwo abstract: this paper investigates the spatial diffusion of an intergovernmental grant in benin. using static and dynamic spatial models, we estimate the spillover effects of the fonds d�appui au d�veloppement des communes (fadec) on per capita local government expenditure in the 77 municipalities from 2008 to 2015. neighborliness � a measure of interdependence � is captured through geographic and distance-based spatial weighting schemes. in addition, we constructed a measurement of ethnic affinity as an alternative spatial weighting scheme to test for the existence of an ethno-spatial interdependence in local public finance in benin. the empirical results suggest that a statistically significant share of the total effects of the fadec stems from indirect elasticities or the diffusion process of grants received by neighboring jurisdictions, regardless of how we measure neighborliness. the results also confirm the existence of a robust ethno-spatial interdependence and complementarity in local government expenditure in benin. the spillovers across ethnic neighbors are estimated to be 13.9% of the total effects in the short-run and 15.5% in the long-run. put differently, the effects of the fadec in a given municipality are influenced by the transfers received by its ethnic (and linguistic) neighbors. the findings point to the appeal of inter-governmental transfers for the decentralized financing of public services, especially in low-income countries where local bureaucratic capacity in raising own-source revenues might be limited. supporting local governments with well-structured grants can not only be a channel to foster local public provision but also contribute to pushing geographic or ethnic neighboring localities to increase their own spending and generate positive spillovers that are crucial for wholistic regional development. 40. title: marital status and women�s nutrition in africa authors: marie albertine djuikom, dominique van de walle abstract: marriage can provide protection (in various forms) to women but also comes with vulnerabilities. how much so will depend on the context. marriage and marital shocks are both common in sub-saharan africa, but the institutions relevant to women�s security vary within the region. the paper investigates whether women who have never married or have suffered a marital rupture have worse nutritional status relative to married women in their first union. conditional means for women�s nutritional status are compared by marital status across 20 countries. overall, the results indicate significantly lower nutritional status for africa�s widowed and divorced women between ages 15 and 49. this is generally found to be the case with country and household fixed effects and controls for hiv status. however, looking at country-specific results underlines that disadvantage is by no means universal. once one controls for likely confounders, a few countries stand out as places where women are especially vulnerable to marital shocks, notably ethiopia, rwanda, swaziland and zambia. this is the first study to systematically investigate the individual welfare consequences of marital dissolution for women in africa, and to assess how widespread and generalizable the events and outcomes noted in the existing literature are within and across countries. 41. title: framing the frame: cause and effect in climate-related migration authors: fabien cottier, marie-laurence flahaux, jesse ribot, richard seager, godfreyb ssekajja abstract: analytic frames shape the causality we identify in climate-related crises. here we contrast examples from two primary categories of analytic frames, which we label �environmental-drivers� and �social-causal� to draw attention to the implications of each frame with regards to causality. we explore each frame via cases of �climate-related� migration. the article illustrates that each analytic frame carries implicit causal assumptions that prefigure causal findings. analysis can be done within either category of frame; yet the findings, however rigorous, remain contingent on the chosen frame and its assumptions. an environmental-drivers model will hold the social context as fixed and quantify the incremental damages of a measure of climate change, while a social-causal model will show how damages are generated by social vulnerability and its antecedents. the latter may show that a given climate event may have no effect on a secure population but lead to massive damages among the vulnerable � and thus that the damage cannot be solely attributed to the climate event. frame choice is normative as frames prefigure causes, potential solutions, the locus of responsibility, and suggested policy interventions. the article poses the question of how a productive dialogue between these two frames can be generated and recommends that causal predisposition of models be made explicit so that the findings they indicate can be understood as partial to the choice of models. as causal findings imply policy options, making the assumptions explicit while exploring the directions that other models would point in, will help broaden the range of possible policy responses. 42. title: changing male perceptions of gender equality: evidence from a randomised controlled trial study authors: cuong viet nguyen, finn tarp abstract: in this study, we use a randomized control trial to examine whether asking vietnamese men to reflect on gender equality can reduce their gender bias. we randomly selected two groups of married men in four rural provinces and asked the first group to make comments on gender-related laws and the second group to write stories about gender equality. we find that commenting on gender-related laws does not reduce men�s bias against women, while writing stories has a strong effect on reducing prejudice against women. writing stories increases the index of gender attitudes of men in the second group by 0.29 standard deviations. the assignment also has a small effect on their contribution to housework. changing men�s behaviour in practice requires stronger and more sustained interventions. 43. title: challenging conventional wisdom on illicit economies and rural development in latin america authors: laura aileen sauls, anthony dest, kendra mcsweeney abstract: illicit economies have become a major driver of socio-environmental change in latin america�s rural spaces. the arrival of transnational drug trade networks in rural communities has significantly altered the economic, political, and social dynamics of entire regions. the drug trade has particularly affected the ancestral territories of indigenous and afro-descendent peoples, which coincide with significant areas of forests and high biodiversity, increasingly making trafficking an issue of racial and environmental justice as well. furthermore, the decades-long drug wars, sponsored in large part by the united states government, have fundamentally altered economic, social, environmental, and political conditions in areas of production and transshipment. the convergence of competing claims on rural spaces coupled with the violence provoked by the drug trade and state reactions to it enable and constrain possibilities for transformative action on the part of rural communities, and for development and governance projects. in this introduction to the special issue, we provide an overview of cross-cutting insights and key conceptual and methodological themes from the nine included papers. these findings challenge normative narratives of how illicit economies negatively affect political stability and economic development, problematizing especially the role of the state and market economies in this nexus. these papers also make clear the importance of mixed methods and ethnographic research that attends to questions of power to describe, explain, and transform illicit economies� roles in this dynamic region. 44. title: social capital as a double-edged sword for sustained poverty escapes in ethiopia authors: tassew woldehanna, yisak tafere, manex b. yonis abstract: what enables social capital to contribute to sustained poverty escapes, and what could compensate for the negative effects of adverse social norms that inhibit pathways out of poverty? this paper seeks to answer these questions in ethiopia by analysing three rounds of the ethiopian socioeconomic survey (2011/12, 2013/14, and 2015/16) alongside fieldwork in tigray, amhara, oromia, and snnpr comprising focus group discussions, life history interviews, and key informant interviews. the study finds that families able to sustain poverty escapes typically possess a combination of material wealth, human, political and social capital, all underpinned by an enabling environment marked by factors including an evolving education system and pro-poor political settlement. better-off households are then able to draw on social capital during shocks that could otherwise precipitate declines in wellbeing. however, the social events which sustain social capital can be a double-edged sword. families may spend much on weddings, funerals, children�s christenings and birthdays, and inaugurations of newly houses. reciprocity is expected when organizing these feasts, which poor families find difficult to maintain. accordingly, some take credit and become indebted, others sell livestock and limit their ability to cope with shocks, and some young people are also forced to migrate to generate income to settle family debt. based on these findings, policy suggestions are offered, such as through promoting public discussion of migration risks and mitigation of these risks, group-based insurance to help support costs for feasts, and expanding the scope of psnp transfers to recognize the importance of idiosyncratic shocks. 45. title: the effects of social infrastructure and gender equality on output and employment: the case of south korea authors: cem oyvat, �zlem onaran abstract: this paper examines the short-run and medium-run impact of spending in social infrastructure, defined as expenditure in education, childcare, health and social care, wages and gender pay gap on output and employment of men and women for the case of south korea. based on a gendered post-kaleckian feminist macroeconomic theoretical model, we estimate the macroeconomic effects of social expenditure, wages and gender pay gap using a structural vector autoregression (svar) analysis for the period of 1970�2012. the results show that an increase in the public social infrastructure significantly increases the total non-agricultural output and employment in south korea both in the short and medium run. moreover, we find that higher social infrastructure expenditure increases female employment more than male employment in the short run and raises both male and female employment in the medium run due to increasing output. finally, the results show that south korean economy is gender equality-led in the medium run, although the effects are economically small in comparison to the strong effects of increases social infrastructure spending. the results indicate that sustainable equitable development and a substantial increase in employment requires a mix of both labour market and fiscal policies. 46. title: repatriation during conflict: a signaling analysis authors: kara ross camarena abstract: more than 28 million refugees have repatriated to their countries of origin since 1990. the united nations high commissioner for refugees (unhcr) often organizes repatriation under tripartite repatriation agreements (tras) and uses these agreements to raise funds to help refugees return. human rights organizations often view these agreements as signals about forced repatriation and campaign against funding repatriation. scholars explain these tras as part of a broader problem with the global focus on repatriation at the expense of refugee rights. with these arguments it is impossible to distinguish when it is time to support repatriation and when an agreement is premature and would promote unsafe return. yet, sometimes countries do not sign repatriation agreements at all. other times repatriation agreements occur when safety in the origin country is on the horizon. still other times these agreements are signed, and there is little evidence that the origin country is safe from violence. under what conditions do tras signal that it is safer in a country of origin? i develop a signaling model of negotiated repatriation and discuss cases studies that exemplify the equilibria. i theorize repatriation agreements arise out of a bilateral negotiation where the refugee-hosting country needs information and the refugee-sending country must signal capacity. a costly signal convinces the refugee-hosting country that the sending country can provide stability and that refugees will not flee again. within-country quantitative analysis shows that host countries with leverage over countries of origin can elicit credible signals about violence. host country leverage, measured by share of trade, is associated with waiting to sign repatriation agreements until violence is low. donor countries should be skeptical of repatriation agreements signed when origin countries have leverage and forced repatriation is more likely. as the number of refugees in the world grows, pressure to repatriate refugees increases. interstate relationships can help to distinguish among repatriation agreements, and the international community can use these differences to identify when refugee return is more likely to be safe and sustainable. 47. title: maternity benefits mandate and women�s choice of work in vietnam authors: khoa vu, paul glewwe abstract: despite a sizable literature on the labor market effects of maternity leave regulation on women in developed countries, how these policies affect women�s work in developing countries with a large informal sector remains poorly understood. this study examines how extending the maternity leave requirement affects women�s decision to work in the informal or formal sector in vietnam. we use a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the 2012 amendments to the vietnam labor law, which imposes a longer maternity leave requirement than before. we find that the law increases formal employment and decreases unpaid work among women. this is driven by women switching from agricultural household work to employment in the private formal sector, especially in the manufacturing industry and among the middle-skilled occupations such as plant and machine workers, craft and related workers, as well as clerks. 48. title: receiving more, expecting less? social ties, clientelism and the poor�s expectations of future service provision authors: prisca j�st, ellen lust abstract: do citizens expect candidates who hand out goods at election time to provide services once they take office? the literature provides competing views of the relationship between electoral handouts and service provision. one sees handouts as pre-payment for the vote in lieu of future services; the second understands them as signaling the candidate�s ability to provide future services. in this paper, we examine how electoral handouts may affect expectations of future service provision. we focus on the poor because they are most dependent on such service provision, and on expectations because they are more easily identified and are likely to reflect past experience. we argue the density of social ties within the community should moderate the relationship between candidates� campaign handouts and expectations of future services. we test this argument using hierarchical models to analyze observational and experimental data from over 14,000 poor kenyans, malawians, and zambians in 631 communities. we find that respondents generally view monetary handouts to be in lieu of future services. however, we also find important differences in communities with more and less dense social ties. vote-buying is more common and seen as more acceptable in socially dense than in less dense communities. respondents from socially dense communities are also less likely to expect future service provision; however, they do not see candidates who give handouts as significantly less likely to provide services than those who do not. indeed, there is evidence that not providing handouts in these communities may signal the candidate�s inability to provide services. these findings highlight the importance of considering how communities� social density affects expectations over service provision and the need to consider, more broadly, how social context affects the distributive consequences of clientelism. 49. title: clientelism, corruption and the rule of law authors: staffan i. lindberg, maria c. lo bue, kunal sen abstract: it is widely believed that clientelism-the giving of material goods in return for electoral support-is associated with poorer governance outcomes. however, systematic cross-country evidence on the deleterious effects of clientelism on governance outcmes is lacking. in this paper we examine the relationship between political clientelism, corruption and rule of law using cross-country panel data for 134 countries for the period 1900�2018. we distinguish between two manifestations of political clientelism-whether vote buying exists, and whether political parties offer material goods to their constituents in exchange for political support (non-programmatic party linkages). we provide evidence of a negative relationship existing between political clientelism on governance outcomes, with increases in clientelism leading to increased political corruption, and weaker rule of law. we also find that the deleterious effects of political clientelism are mainly through non-programmatic party linkages $%&(/24568��ʻ�ʘ��whye=0h�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h��5�cjojqj^jajh 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