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��ࡱ�>�� fh����e��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������u �r� (bjbj�n�n2d��a��a� �������""������������8�tm�pnliiiii����m�m�m�m�m�m�m$�o�rr<�m�������m��ii4 n   ��i�i�m ��m   i�����ٓyǎ������ �m n0pn �r�^�r  �/�r��j��� ������m�m)����pn�������������������������������������������������������������������������r���������"q s: the american economic review volume 111, issue 8, august 2021 1. title: lapse-based insurance. authors: gottlieb, daniel; smetters, kent. abstract: most individual life insurance policies lapse, with lapsers cross-subsidizing non-lapsers. we show that policies and lapse patterns predicted by standard rational expectations models are the opposite of those observed empirically. we propose two behavioral models consistent with the evidence: (i) consumers forget to pay premiums and (ii) consumers understate future liquidity needs. we conduct two surveys with a large insurer. new buyers believe that their own lapse probabilities are small compared to the insurer's actual experience. for recent lapsers, forgetfulness accounts for 37.8 percent of lapses while unexpected liquidity accounts for 15.4 percent. 2. title: daily labor supply and adaptive reference points. authors: thakral, neil; t�, linh t. abstract: this paper provides field evidence on how reference points adjust, a degree of freedom in reference-dependence models. examining this in the context of cabdrivers' daily labor-supply behavior, we ask how the within-day timing of earnings affects decisions. drivers work less in response to higher accumulated income, with a strong effect for recent earnings that gradually diminishes for earlier earnings. we estimate a structural model in which drivers work toward a reference point that adjusts to deviations from expected earnings with a lag. this dynamic view of reference dependence reconciles conflicting "neoclassical" and "behavioral" interpretations of evidence on daily labor-supply decisions. 3. title: mediation in reputational bargaining. authors: fanninga, jack. abstract: can an uninformed mediator improve outcomes in a dynamic reputational bargaining model? i show that a simple communication protocol used by professional mediators, of announcing an agreement only if both parties privately accept its terms, can increase the payoffs of rational bargainers, but only if communication is noisy: the mediator must sometimes fail to suggest a deal even when both bargainers accept it. 4. title: what to expect from the lower bound on interest rates: evidence from derivatives prices. authors: mertens, thomas m.; williams, john c. abstract: this paper analyzes the effects of the lower bound for interest rates on the distributions of inflation and interest rates. in a new keynesian model with a lower bound, two equilibria emerge: policy is mostly unconstrained in the "target equilibrium," whereas policy is mostly constrained in the "liquidity trap equilibrium." using options data on interest rates and inflation, we find forecast densities consistent with the target equilibrium and find no evidence in favor of the liquidity trap equilibrium. the lower bound has a sizable effect on the distribution of interest rates, but its impact on inflation is relatively modest. 5. title: the impacts of a multifaceted prenatal intervention on human capital accumulation in early life. authors: carneiro, pedro; kraftman, lucy; mason, giacomo; moore, lucie; rasul, imran; scott, molly. abstract: we evaluate an intervention targeting early life nutrition and well-being for households in extreme poverty in northern nigeria. the intervention leads to large and sustained improvements in children's anthropometric and health outcomes, including an 8 percent reduction in stunting 4 years, post-intervention. these impacts are partly driven by information-related channels. however, the certain and substantial flow of cash transfers is also key. they induce positive labor supply responses among women, and enables them to undertake productive investments in livestock. these provide protein rich diets for children, and generate higher household earnings streams long after the cash transfers expire. 6. title: the long-run effects of childhood insurance coverage: medicaid implementation, adult health, and labor market outcomes. authors: goodman-bacon, andrew. abstract: this paper estimates the long- run effects of childhood medicaid eligibility on adult health and economic outcomes using the program's original introduction (1966-1970) and its mandated coverage of welfare recipients. the design compares cohorts born in different years relative to medicaid implementation, in states with different preexisting welfare- based eligibility. early childhood medicaid eligibility reduces mortality and disability, increases employment, and reduces receipt of disability transfer programs up to 50 years later. medicaid has saved the government more than its original cost and saved more than 10 million quality adjusted life years. 7. title: identifying present bias from the timing of choices. authors: heidhues, paul; strack, philipp. abstract: a (partially na�ve) quasi-hyperbolic discounter repeatedly chooses whether to complete a task. her net benefits of task completion are drawn independently between periods from a time-invariant distribution. we show that the probability of completing the task conditional on not having done so earlier increases towards the deadline. conversely, we establish nonidentifiability by proving that for any time-preference parameters and any dataset with such (weakly increasing) task-completion probabilities, there exists a stationary payoff distribution that rationalizes the agent's behavior if she is either sophisticated or fully na�ve. additionally, we provide sharp partial identification for the case of observable continuation values. 8. title: entry-proofness and discriminatory pricing under adverse selection. authors: attar, andrea; mariotti, thomas; salani�, fran�ois. abstract: this paper studies competitive allocations under adverse selection. we first provide a general necessary and sufficient condition for entry on an inactive market to be unprofitable. we then use this result to characterize, for an active market, a unique budget-balanced allocation implemented by a market tariff making additional trades with an entrant unprofitable. motivated by the recursive structure of this allocation, we finally show that it emerges as the essentially unique equilibrium outcome of a discriminatory ascending auction. these results yield sharp predictions for competitive nonexclusive markets. 9. title: targeting in-kind transfers through market design: a revealed preference analysis of public housing allocation. authors: waldinger, daniel. abstract: public housing benefits are rationed through wait lists. theoretical work on public housing allocation has debated how much choice applicants should have over units, identifying a possible trade-off between efficiency and redistribution. this paper empirically establishes the existence and economic importance of this trade-off using wait list data from cambridge, massachusetts. i estimate a model of public housing preferences in a setting where heterogeneous apartments are rationed through waiting time. eliminating choice would improve targeting but reduce tenant welfare by more than 30 percent. such a change is only justified on targeting grounds by a strong social preference for redistribution. 10. title: place-based drivers of mortality: evidence from migration. authors: finkelstein, amy; gentzkow, matthew; williams, heidi. abstract: we estimate the effect of current location on elderly mortality by analyzing outcomes of movers in the medicare population. we control for movers' origin locations as well as a rich vector of pre-move health measures. we also develop a novel strategy to adjust for remaining unobservables, using the correlation of residual mortality with movers' origins to gauge the importance of omitted variables. we estimate substantial effects of current location. moving from a tenth to a ninetieth percentile location would increase life expectancy at age 65 by 1.1 years, and equalizing location effects would reduce cross-sectional variation in life expectancy by 15 percent. places with favorable life expectancy effects tend to have higher quality and quantity of health care, less extreme climates, lower crime rates, and higher socioeconomic status.     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