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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�y�bjbj�n�n2��a��ak} ��""��8��$�:rl��q�q�q�q�q�q�q$�s�\vf�q��q��4�q�n��q��q��@��3�q r0:r�vor�v�/�v�ynl��q�q��:r��v��"qs: world development volume 154, issue 6, june 2022 1. title: the effects of occupational mobility on wages of rehabilitated workers in brazil authors: rayssa alexandre costa, alexandre nunes de almeida, edward martins costa, pablo urano de carvalho castelar, erivelton de souza nunes abstract: this work investigates how occupational mobility, after a professional rehabilitation process, affects the hourly wages of workers who are inserted in the formal job market in the commerce, services and industry sectors of brazil. for that purpose, a data panel was used with individual information from the annual list of social information (rela��o anual de informa��es sociais- rais) for the period of 2007 to 2016. the methodology used was the staggered difference in differences and dynamic treatment effects, through an event study design. the results show a positive effect of occupational mobility on hourly wages in the sectors analyzed, however, this effect is decreasing in the period after the professional change. 2. title: trade-offs or synergies? hybridity and sustainable performance of dairy cooperatives in india authors: sanchayan nath, rakesh arrawatia abstract: india has come a long way in achieving milk security since it attained independence in 1947. during the 1950s india had to import about 55,000 tons of milk powder. by the year 2018�19 it had become one of the largest producers of milk in the world. the credit for this goes to the successful promotion of dairy cooperatives (dcs) in india. however, milk productivity in the country has continued to lag behind global averages. to increase milk productivity in india, the national dairy plan (ndp) was launched in 2011�12. limited research appears to have been conducted on the effect of ndp on dc performance. therefore, this article analyzes the effect of ndp on dc performance by conceptualizing dcs as hybrid organizations. however, there is limited research on how the hybrid character of cooperatives affects their performance. regression analysis using 2-stage doubly robust, augmented inverse probability weighted (aipw) estimator based on the potential outcomes framework on dc data collected via surveys and secondary reveals that ndp is imbibing characteristics of hybrid organizations in indian dcs. hybridity is statistically significant after controlling for village-level and dc-level variables. financial hybridity is significant for four dependent variables: unit profit, quality of milk, human capability-building and community support. autonomy, the other measure of hybridity, is significant for two dependent variables: growth of sales and unit profit. in other words, indian dcs with hybrid characteristics actually pursue three different kinds of objectives: a) maximization of market-based logics (pursuit of self-interest, economic efficiency and profit maximization); b) maximization of community-oriented logics (pursuit of values such democracy, solidarity and autonomy); and, c) maximization of public benefit (public-sector led local economic development). the above discussion shows that indian dcs are characterized by synergetic outcomes and not by trade-offs which contrasts with theoretical literature. 3. title: predicting wasteful spending in tree planting programs in indian himalaya authors: pushpendra rana, forrest fleischman, vijay ramprasad, kangjae lee abstract: tree planting is widely promoted as a cost-effective natural climate solution, yet there are few evaluations of the implementation of tree planting. our analysis of a unique dataset on tree planting in the indian himalayan state of himachal pradesh shows that over half of the state�s budget for tree planting is wasted on plantations that are unlikely to survive and/or are poorly designed to achieve the state�s goal of increasing forest cover. himachal pradesh (and india more generally) has been identified as a high potential area for natural climate solutions due to high government capacity, adequate funding, and government agencies with extensive planting experience. we combine data on the location and financial outlay for plantations, which allow us to analyze the relationship between plantations and social and biophysical conditions, with a machine learning model, trained on past land cover change, which predicts the likelihood of future tree cover loss in plantation areas. our finding that even in this high potential area tree planting programs involve considerable wasted expenditure on ineffective plantations raises questions about optimistic assessments of the potential for tree planting to serve as a cost-effective natural climate solution. we suggest deemphasizing the target-based approaches that dominate present policy-making and high-profile scientific publications, which we argue are the cause of wasted expenditures in himachal pradesh. instead policy-makers and scientists interested in natural climate solutions should focus on developing solutions that respond to local biophysical, social, and economic realities, and are implemented through transparent procedures that increase accountability to and reinforce the rights of forest dependent people. 4. title: a simplified measure of nutritional empowerment: using machine learning to abbreviate the women�s empowerment in nutrition index (weni) authors: shree saha, sudha narayanan abstract: measuring empowerment is both complicated and time consuming. a number of recent efforts have focused on how to better measure this complex multidimensional concept such that it is easy to implement. in this paper, we use machine learning techniques, specifically lasso, using survey data from five indian states to abbreviate a recently developed measure of nutritional empowerment, the women�s empowerment in nutrition index (weni) that has 33 distinct indicators. our preferred abridged women�s empowerment in nutrition index (a-weni) consists of 20 indicators. we validate the a-weni via a field survey from a new context, the western indian state of maharashtra. we find that the 20-indicator a-weni is both capable of reproducing well the empowerment scores and status generated by the 33-indicator weni and predicting nutritional outcomes such as bmi and dietary diversity. using this index, we find that in our maharashtra sample, on average, only 35.9% of mothers of children under the age of 5 years are nutritionally empowered, whereas 77.2% of their spouses are nutritionally empowered. we also find that only 14.6% of the elderly women are nutritionally empowered. these estimates are broadly consistent with those based on the 33-indicator weni. the a-weni will reduce the time burden on respondents and can be incorporated in any general purpose survey conducted in rural contexts. many of the indicators in a-weni are often collected routinely in contemporary household surveys. hence, capturing nutritional empowerment does not entail significant additional burden. developing a-weni can thus aid in an expansion of efforts to measure nutritional empowerment; this is key to understanding better the barriers and challenges women face and help identify ways in which women can improve their nutritional well-being in meaningful ways. 5. title: female entrepreneurs and productivity around the world: rule of law, network, culture, and gender equality authors: sheng fang, chorching goh, mark roberts, lixin colin xu, albert zeufack abstract: we use worldwide firm-level data to study how women-led firms differ from male-led firms in productivity, and investigate potential explanations for these differences. women-led firms are more prevalent in countries with better rule of law, gender equality, and stronger individualistic culture, and in small firms and services industries. relative to men-led firms, women-led ones have lower levels and growth of labor productivity, but similar levels of total factor productivity. the disadvantage is mainly in manufacturing firms, nonexistent in service firms, and only in small firms. furthermore, the disadvantage in performance for women-led firms is smaller for countries with higher gender equality and lower burdens of household chores and domestic care for women. finally, it is smaller where there is less emphasis on personal networks, less competition from informal firms, and the culture is more collective. the study does not find that the female leader disadvantage is amplified in corrupt environments. 6. title: do refugees cause crime? authors: aysegul kayaoglu abstract: the impact of immigration on crime continues to stir heated debates in public policy circles around the world. surveys indicate that host societies favor controversial measures because they are concerned about what they perceive to be an impingement exacted on their security with each new wave of migration. seeking whether there is any truth to such perceptions, this paper analyzes the refugees� impact on crime rates, using the case of turkey which has started to host the world�s largest refugee population within any national borders due to the syrian civil war. in doing so, the paper employs instrumental variables, difference-in-differences (did), and staggered did methods to explain if the conflict-fleeing syrians have pushed turkey�s crime rates higher in the short and the long run. it also controls for a multitude of time-varying provincial characteristics and presents a battery of robustness checks against various identification threats. as a result, did estimates show that refugees do not have any causal effect on the crime rates in turkey. more strikingly, its iv estimates provide evidence for a rather negative effect on the crime rates per capita whilst finding a null effect on the crime rates per native resident in particular. 7. title: limited benefits and high costs are associated with low monetary returns for guatemalan household investment in water, sanitation, and hygiene technologies authors: lee e. voth-gaeddert, mahelet g. fikru, daniel b. oerther abstract: the child stunting rate (low height-for-age) in guatemala is the sixth worst in the world. child stunting is correlated both with short and long-term economic costs. while technologies to improve water, sanitation and hygiene (wash) are effective at ameliorating child stunting, current household investment in wash technologies is constrained (i.e., self-supply). to understand this constraint, data on household spending priorities and barriers to investment in wash technologies must be assessed. we utilize primary data from our partner community in totonicap�n, guatemala to populate a structural equation model and benefit-cost analysis assessing the association between household wash technologies and child height-for-age. to test regional variations, we scale-up our approach to examine four additional regions across western guatemala. the results suggest there is limited monetary gain for households to invest in wash technologies. among the communities and regions where higher returns on investment for households were identified, significant wash technologies were cumulatively low cost and simple to obtain and use. we encourage stakeholders supporting a self-supply model to evaluate that incremental improvements in wash technologies financed by the household do not impose large costs without sufficient benefits, facilitating healthy wash mobility (a household's ability to improve their wash technology status). 8. title: land rental market reforms: can they increase outmigration from agriculture? evidence from a quantitative model authors: arnaud daymard abstract: recent econometric work suggests that there is a positive link between the development of land rental markets and the migration of workers out of agriculture in the developing world. i investigate this claim using a two-sector model of structural transformation that takes into account the well-known inverse relationship between farm size and farm productivity. the model studies how the allocation of employment between agricultural and non-agricultural activities is affected by the presence of transaction costs in the land rental market, as well as by the initial distribution of land ownership. theoretically, a reduction in transaction costs induces outmigration from agriculture if agricultural prices are sufficiently flexible, while rigid agricultural prices may lead to the reverse phenomenon of immigration in agriculture. practically, the model predicts that for most of the countries tested, a reduction in transaction costs causes little labor movement between sectors. this is equally true concerning the effect of a land redistribution. in spite of this, these reforms are found to increase substantially the production efficiency and welfare of farmers. these results suggest that the main benefit of stimulating land rentals is not in fostering structural transformation, but in improving the livelihoods of farmers. 9. title: cash transfers� role in improving livelihood diversification strategies and well-being: short- and medium-term evidence from zimbabwe authors: noemi pace, ashwini sebastian, silvio daidone, ana paula dela o campos, ... benjamin davis abstract: this paper contributes to the literature on the determinants of rural livelihood diversification and its impact on household welfare in the short and medium term using data from a government-run social protection program in zimbabwe. first, this study investigates whether cash transfers originally intended to ensure minimum food security in the poorest households can also induce the diversification of their livelihood strategies. second, since diversification may lead to engagement in both low-return and high-return activities, this paper examines whether diversification resulting from the cash transfer increases household welfare. in the short run, the program causes only a small reduction in engagement in survival-led diversification; in the medium run, the program leads to a large shift from survival-led diversification and specialization in on-farm activities towards opportunity-led diversification. further heterogeneity analysis shows that the program induces a medium-term change in livelihood strategies in both female- and male-headed households. in both time frames, opportunity-led diversification increases food and non-food consumption. 10. title: impact of rohingya refugees on food prices in bangladesh: evidence from a natural experiment authors: ashraful alam, indranil dutta, m. emranul haque, ricardo nogales abstract: the rohingya crisis is the fourth largest displacement of population in the world, with most refugees sheltering in neighbouring bangladesh. we use this event as a natural experiment to examine the impact of the sudden influx of rohingyas on food prices in the main host region of bangladesh. we have pieced together a unique data set on food prices based on unpublished information at local government levels covering the pre- and post-influx period. we use a difference-in-difference approach to identify the impact of the refugee influx on the prices in the local area. our baseline results indicate that overall food prices increased by 8 percent in the host sub-district of ukhia, with prices of protein and vegetables increasing by 7 and 36 percent, respectively. for aid-supplied food products, such as cereals and lentils, we do find a statistically significant mitigating effect on prices. however, they were not substantial enough to reverse the increase in food prices. 11. title: building a tax state in the 21st century: fiscal pressure, political regimes, and consumption taxation authors: julian limberg abstract: how can states expand their fiscal capacity in the 21st century? i examine this question by looking at one of the most powerful contemporary fiscal tools at hand � the value-added tax (vat). using a novel dataset on vat rates worldwide since 2000, i argue that fiscal problem pressure can lead to an expanded usage of the vat. however, this effect depends on the type of political regime. whereas democracies tend to raise vat in dire fiscal times, vat rates in autocracies are more immune to fiscal pressure. furthermore, i demonstrate that a worse cost-benefit ratio of vat increases in autocracies can account for this variation. these findings call for a closer investigation of political regime dynamics and fiscal policy-making worldwide. 12. title: environmental justice organizations and the diffusion of conflicts over mining in latin america authors: bryce w. reeder, moises arce, adrian siefkas abstract: existing research has explored the factors affecting the likelihood of resistance to mining projects. these studies emphasize the geographic and firm-level characteristics of mining sites as well as the impact of these projects on the environment and community livelihoods. while making important contributions, the existing literature has failed to examine the contagion effects of conflicts over mining. building on the literature on the diffusion of social movements, we argue that environmental justice organizations (ejos) help diffuse mining conflicts through interpersonal networks involving individuals or organizations, organizational brokers as well as communication strategies through the mass media. our spatial econometric analysis demonstrates that mining conflicts cluster in time and space and that ejo networks are the primary drivers of diffusion. the diffusion effects associated with ejos help our understanding of local resistance to mining and represent an important pattern explaining the expansion of social conflicts in latin america. 13. title: discrimination in post-conflict settings: experimental evidence from colombia authors: kerstin unfried, marcela iba�ez diaz, lina maria restrepo-plaza abstract: after a civil war, community support for the reintegration of ex-combatants is crucial for peace-building. using a crowdfunding campaign to promote trainees� business ideas, we investigate whether university students discriminate against ex-combatants in colombia. our results show that there is no discrimination against ex-combatants in terms of donations compared with other trainees, but there is a substantial degree of prejudice and skepticism. this finding suggests that the reintegration of ex-combatants might be affected by the nimby phenomena. although willing to economically support the peace process, individuals are skeptical towards personal encounters with ex-combatants. this suggest that to achieve sustainable peace, policies should focus on decreasing stigmatization towards ex-combatants. 14. title: critical reflection on the extractive industries transparency initiative in kyrgyzstan authors: saipira furstenberg, janyl moldalieva abstract: the purpose of this article is to shed light on the implementation of anti-corruption efforts in extractive industries. through the case study of the extractive industries transparency initiative (eiti) in kyrgyzstan, the article aims to capture how the transparency norm is enacted in a development and �resource cursed� context. building on the literature on resource governance and anti-corruption and on fieldwork conducted in kyrgyzstan, this article discusses the implementation of eiti at national and subnational levels, as well as, community discourses and practices around transparent resource governance. it attempts to explain how anti-corruption initiatives function in authoritarian settings and why they fail to deliver the promised outcomes. the study highlights the incongruence between normative claims underlying global anti-corruption standards and actual policy and community practices on the ground. it argues that the implementation and outcomes of global anti-corruption interventions such as the eiti are conditioned by the local domestic context. the article stresses the need for scholars and policymakers to examine how transparency is articulated and implemented at national and subnational levels. 15. title: contested water- and miningscapes � explaining the high intensity of water and mining conflicts in a meta-study authors: mirja schoderer, marlen ott abstract: conflicts around access to, control over, and quality of water accompany mining projects all over the globe. often, they are associated with high intensity as means of contestation range from verbal complaints to protest marches, civil disobedience and violent confrontations. while numerous case studies on water-related mining conflicts exist, scholarship that synthesizes insights remains rare. in order to better understand the dynamics that lead to the escalation of conflicts and to further theory development on the role of, e.g., political economic contexts, hydro-social conditions and social relationships, a systematic overview of the existing empirical evidence is needed. our meta-study of 53 water and mining conflicts identifies several combinations of conditions that are tied to large-scale mobilization and the use of civil disobedience measures, sabotage or hunger strikes by environmental defenders. as our results show, raised stakes and ontological differences, e.g. in situations where water is essential for livelihoods and cultural and spiritual practices, play a role, in particular when coupled with a lack of meaningful participation. discursive or physical coercion by the state or by private security forces also intensify mobilization rather than containing it while the role of international ngos is more ambiguous. to identify explanatory scenarios, we conducted a two-step, fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsqca) based on data collected in a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed articles and book chapters. taking its data from published research, our study identifies a geographic bias towards latin america in academic literature on water and mining conflicts and points out topical blind spots. by looking for conditions that are consistently associated with high-intensity conflicts, it also provides insights on priority areas of engagement for community leaders, policy-makers, and private sector and civil society representatives seeking to avoid the escalation of conflicts. 16. title: improving taxpayer registration through nudging? field experimental evidence from brazil authors: simeon sch�chtele, hu�scar eguino, soraya roman abstract: deficient taxpayer information is a major impediment for taxation, particularly in developing countries. however, in contrast to the well-established literature on nudging tax compliance, field experimental evidence on low-cost interventions to improve the taxpayer registry is scarce. this paper presents the first evidence on promoting registration in an online tax registry. we randomized outreach communications to over 160 k brazilian property taxpayers, thereby targeting a tax considered a sleeping giant in latin america. a simple request to join the registry, embedded in a graphically designed e-mail, substantially increased registration relative to a control treatment. strikingly, however, adding a lottery reward unintendedly reduced registration in comparison to the simple request. survey evidence, unavailable in previous studies, points to altered effective motivations to register as an explanation. we highlight one mechanism that can reconcile different results in the literature: rewards may signal voluntariness and lack of enforcement. this is also consistent with the results of our analysis of property tax payments. it suggests that the e-mails increased tax payments of certain taxpayers, but that the lottery treatment lowered payment rates for high-value properties. in sum, nudging may be one element of a successful strategy to improve taxpayer registration. however, while simple low-cost outreach activities improve registration, the use of low-powered incentives can have adverse effects. 17. title: an institutional analysis of �power within� local governance: a bazaari tale from pakistan authors: muhammad salman khan, stephen syrett abstract: power dynamics in local governance have profound implications for the outcomes of processes of political decentralisation within developing countries. attempts to improve participation and service delivery through strengthened local and regional governance have been frustrated by the inability to understand and transform the relationship between power and formal and informal institutions. through a theoretically informed empirical study of the relationship between power and institutions within local governance, this paper addresses this challenge through developing the notion of �power within�. analysis of batkhela bazaar in the malakand district in pakistan reveals distinct fields of power relating to the market, political representation and local administration, and the evolving interactions between institutions within and across these fields. results demonstrate how these fields of power, and the agents operating within them, actively shape the interaction between formal and informal institutions of local governance in a process of contiguous evolution. understanding of �power within� prompts revised thinking on how best to harness emergent institutional forms to promote progressive and inclusionary local governance and develop more effective state decentralization programmes. 18. title: the microeconomics of adaptation: evidence from smallholders in ethiopia and niger authors: fleur wouterse, marina andrijevic, michiel schaeffer abstract: climate change is expected to bring higher temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns and in many places increased frequency and severity of extreme weather. climate change is slated to affect the global food equation both on the supply and demand side as well as local level food systems where small farm communities often depend on local and their own production. as climate change has become more pronounced, the risk to land-based food security faced by many of the world�s poor, such as rural communities in ethiopia and niger, seems to have become more intense and less predictable. to avoid food insecurity in response to climatic and other stressors, adaptation by small-scale, subsistence farms needs to be accelerated. to effectively intervene to do so, there is a need to understand adaptive behavior in terms of its drivers and its relation with welfare outcomes such as food security. in this paper, we develop a conceptual framework of risk and adaptation, use regression and cluster analysis and the most recent version of the living standards measurement surveys data for rural areas in ethiopia and niger, to advance our understanding. we find that adaptation is associated with lower food insecurity in ethiopia but not in niger. formal education appears as a central element of adaptive capacity and is associated with both adaptive production and income strategies. female-headed households are much less adapted to a changing climate. perceived risk based on past hazard experience is crucial for adaptation. results from the cluster analysis confirm that spatial poverty traps exist. to maintain or enhance welfare in the short term and resilience in the long run in the face of a changing climate, policy makers would do well to focus on micro-regions identified as highly food insecure and build adaptive capacity through, for example, gender inclusive education interventions. 19. title: impacts of negative shocks on wellbeing and aspirations � evidence from an earthquake authors: prabal k. de, dhanushka thamarapani abstract: while the influence of adverse shocks on objective measures of wellbeing has been researched in economics, little evidence exists on the effects of shocks like natural disasters on subjective wellbeing and aspirations. the paper examines the causal links between an adverse shock, the 2006 yogyakarta earthquake in indonesia, and a range of subjective wellbeing outcomes and aspirations. we combine a household survey panel dataset along with the ground shaking activity (modified mercalli intensity) recorded by the united states geological survey. the panel data comprises of self-reported measures on current wellbeing, aspirations about future wellbeing, quality of life, and happiness before and after the earthquake. the results reveal robust evidence that the disaster led to large and significant reductions in subjective wellbeing (including those related to children) and future aspirations. using a follow-up round of data, we find that such declines in wellbeing persisted years after the disaster, calling into policy action encompassing both material and emotional wellbeing that is crucial for post-disaster revival. 20. title: why the great food transformation may not happen � a deep-dive into our food systems� political economy, controversies and politics of evidence authors: christophe b�n� abstract: this paper explores the conditions under which the changes leading to the great transformation of food systems called upon by a growing number of international experts and development agencies, will (or not) happen. after discussing the meanings of �transformation� in the specific context of food systems, we draw on different elements of political economy to show how various self-reinforcing dynamics are contributing to lock food systems in their current unsustainable trajectories. those include the concentration of economic and market power in the hands of the big food transnational corporations but also other actors� ideology, policy incoherence, national interests or culturally-embedded aspirations, which together create irreconcilable trade-offs and tensions between divergent individual and societal objectives and prevent the system from aligning toward a more sustainable trajectory. in this context, while innovation is often presented as a �game-changer�, we show how the current profit-driven nature of its evolutionary selection creates a random, adirectional, process incapable of steering food systems towards sustainability. we argue that unless those different issues are tackled all together in a resolutely normative, global, and prescriptive manner in which science would have a new role to play, there are serious risks that the great transformation will not happen. based on these analyses, we identify pathways to move the systems past its current locks-in and steer it toward its long-awaited sustainable transformation. in doing so we demonstrate that what is needed is not just a transformation of the food systems themselves, but a transformation of the governance of those food systems as well. 21. title: industrial clustering, income and inequality in rural china authors: di guo, kun jiang, chenggang xu, xiyi yang abstract: this study provides evidence that links industrial clusters and rural income in china. based on a pooled cross-sectional dataset composed of rural households from 109, 121 and 313 counties in 1995, 2002 and 2007, respectively, as well as a unique density-based index measuring the existence of industrial clusters calculated from firm-level data, we identify the mechanisms by which industrial clusters simultaneously increase rural income and reduce income inequality among rural households in china. furthermore, we provide systematic evidence that specialization, urbanization and industrialization, measured in standard ways, do not have such effects on rural household income or inequality. our evidence suggests that in china's context, industrial clusters developed under joint efforts of entrepreneurs and local governments have lessened institutional constraints and provided relatively equal opportunities for rural residents to participate in nonfarm 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