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volume 111, issue 9, september 2021
1. title: inattention and switching costs as sources of inertia in medicare part d.
authors: heiss, florian; mcfadden, daniel; winter, joachim; wuppermann, amelie; zhou, bo.
abstract: consumers' health plan choices are highly persistent even though optimal plans change over time. this paper separates two sources of inertia, inattention to plan choice and switching costs. we develop a panel data model with separate attention and choice stages, linked by heterogeneity in acuity, i.e., the ability and willingness to make diligent choices. using data from medicare part d, we find that inattention is an important source of inertia but switching costs also play a role, particularly for low-acuity individuals. separating the two stages and allowing for heterogeneity is crucial for counterfactual simulations of interventions that reduce inertia.
2. title: the risk-adjusted carbon price.
authors: van den bremer, ton s.; van der ploeg, frederick.
abstract: the social cost of carbon is the expected present value of damages from emitting one ton of carbon today. we use perturbation theory to derive an approximate tractable expression for this cost adjusted for climatic and economic risk. we allow for different aversion to risk and intertemporal fluctuations, skewness and dynamics in the risk distributions of climate sensitivity and the damage ratio, and correlated shocks. we identify prudence, insurance, and exposure effects, reproduce earlier analytical results, and offer analytical insights into numerical results on the effects of economic and damage ratio uncertainty and convex damages on the optimal carbon price.
3. title: implementation by vote-buying mechanisms.
authors: eguia, jon x.; xefteris, dimitrios.
abstract: vote-buying mechanisms allow agents to express any level of support for their preferred alternative at an increasing cost. focusing on large societies with wealth inequality, we prove that the family of binary social choice rules implemented by well-behaved vote-buying mechanisms is indexed by a single parameter, which determines the importance assigned to the agents' willingness to pay to affect outcomes and to the number of supporters for each alternative. this parameter depends solely on the elasticity of the cost function near its origin: as this elasticity decreases, the intensities of support matter relatively more for outcomes than the supporters' count.
4. title: mortgage prepayment and path-dependent effects of monetary policy.
authors: berger, david; milbradt, konstantin; tourre, fabrice; vavra, joseph.
abstract: how much ability does the fed have to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates? we argue that the presence of substantial debt in fixed-rate, prepayable mortgages means that the ability to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates depends not just on their current level but also on their previous path. using a household model of mortgage prepayment matched to detailed loan-level evidence on the relationship between prepayment and rate incentives, we argue that recent interest rate paths will generate substantial headwinds for future monetary stimuli.
5. title: asymmetric attention.
authors: kohlhas, alexandre n.; walther, ansgar.
abstract: we document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events and underreact to new information. existing models of expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. we develop a rational theory of extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidence. in particular, we show that limited, asymmetric attention to procyclical variables can explain the coexistence of extrapolation and underreactions. we illustrate these mechanisms in a microfounded macroeconomic model, which generates expectations consistent with the survey data, and show that asymmetric attention increases business cycle fluctuations.
6. title: the effects of parental and sibling incarceration: evidence from ohio.
authors: norris, samuel; pecenco, matthew; weaver, jeffrey.
abstract: every year, millions of americans experience the incarceration of a family member. using 30 years of administrative data from ohio and exploiting differing incarceration propensities of randomly assigned judges, this paper provides the first quasi-experimental estimates of the effects of parental and sibling incarceration in the united states. parental incarceration has beneficial effects on some important outcomes for children, reducing their likelihood of incarceration by 4.9 percentage points and improving their adult neighborhood quality. while estimates on academic performance and teen parenthood are imprecise, we reject large positive or negative effects. sibling incarceration leads to similar reductions in criminal activity.
7. title: from weber to kafka: political instability and the overproduction of laws.
authors: gratton, gabriele; guiso, luigi; michelacci, claudio; morelli, massimo.
abstract: with inefficient bureaucratic institutions, the effects of laws are hard to assess and incompetent politicians may pass laws to build a reputation as skillful reformers. since too many laws curtail bureaucratic efficiency, this mechanism can generate a steady state with kafkaesque bureaucracy. temporary surges in political instability heighten the incentives to overproduce laws and can shift the economy towards the kafkaesque state. consistent with the theory, after a surge in political instability in the early 1990s, italy experienced a significant increase in the amount of poor-quality legislation and a decrease in bureaucratic efficiency.
8. title: justified communication equilibrium.
authors: clark, daniel; fudenberg, drew.
abstract: justified communication equilibrium (jce) is an equilibrium refinement for signaling games with cheap-talk communication. a strategy profile must be a jce to be a stable outcome of nonequilibrium learning when receivers are initially trusting and senders play many more times than receivers. in the learning model, the counterfactual "speeches" that have been informally used to motivate past refinements are messages that are actually sent. stable profiles need not be perfect bayesian equilibria, so jce sometimes preserves equilibria that existing refinements eliminate. despite this, it resembles the earlier refinements d1 and nwbr, and it coincides with them in co-monotonic signaling games.
9. title: the challenges of universal health insurance in developing countries: experimental evidence from indonesia's national health insurance.
authors: banerjee, abhijit; finkelstein, amy; hanna, rema; olken, benjamin a.; ornaghi, arianna; sumarto, sudarno.
abstract: to investigate barriers to universal health insurance in developing countries, we designed a randomized experiment involving about 6,000 households in indonesia who are subject to a government health insurance program with a weakly enforced mandate. time-limited subsidies increased enrollment and attracted lower-cost enrollees, in part by reducing the strategic timing of enrollment to correspond with health needs. registration assistance also increased enrollment, but increased attempted enrollment much more, as over one-half of households who attempted to enroll did not successfully do so. these findings underscore how weak administrative capacity can create important challenges in developing countries for achieving widespread coverage.
10. title: media, pulpit, and populist persuasion: evidence from father coughlin.
authors: wang, tianyi.
abstract: i study the political impact of the first populist radio personality in american history. father charles coughlin blended populist demagoguery, anti-semitism, and fascist sympathies to create a hugely popular radio program that attracted 30 million weekly listeners in the 1930s. i find that exposure to father coughlin's anti-roosevelt broadcast reduced franklin d. roosevelt's vote share in the 1936 presidential election. coughlin's effects were larger among catholics and persisted after coughlin left the air. moreover, places more exposed to coughlin's broadcast were more likely to form a local branch of the pro-nazi german-american bund and sold fewer war bonds during world war ii.
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