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��ࡱ�>�� r�d}bjbj��2��6u ��8gd�,�m4��#/ mmmmmmm$�n�dqh3m�7773m��4hmooo7z�� mo7 mooo��h��#��o�l^m0�mo�q��qoon/�q��j<77o777773m3mz777�m7777��q777777777��: public administration review volume 70, dec 2010, supplement 1. title: demographic change and its public sector consequences. authors: wolf, douglas a.; amirkhanyan, anna a. abstract: it is widely believed that projected changes in the age structure of the u.s. population will create serious fiscal pressures at the federal level. irrespective of any reforms undertaken at the federal level, these demographic trends also will have a direct impact on the way state and local governments operate. a review of recent population projections to 2020 reveals a great deal of heterogeneity in demographic trends at lower levels of government. population aging will accompany overall population growth in some localities, and shrinkage in others. it also will coincide with a broad range of changes in the proportion of children under 18. the authors consider several responses to these demographic developments in the realm of public management: first, they consider major fiscal implications, which may prompt a range of managerial responses pertaining to the scope and mix of public services and the design of public programs. second, they discuss the effects of demographic change on the composition of the state and local government workforce. finally, the authors revisit the alleged 'exogeneity' of demographic forces and suggest new and fruitful areas for future research. 2. title: public budgeting in 2020: return to equilibrium, or continued mismatch between demands and resources? authors: joyce, philip g.; pattison, scott. abstract: public budgeting in 2010 is dominated, at all levels of government, by continuing high demands for government services and large budget deficits. looking ahead to 2020, these struggles are likely to continue. the federal government's 10-year budget outlook is bleak, and its longer-term outlook is even more dismal, driven by growth in health care costs. state and local government budgets will slowly recover from the effects of the recent recession, but will continue to have structural problems. each of the three major revenue sources-income, sales, and property taxes-are candidates for reform. on the spending side, health care and education will dominate at the state and local level, while controlling entitlement spending is the main federal challenge. government also will face continued pressures to finance and maintain infrastructure, appropriately staff the budget function, and make good on promises of more transparent and accountable government. [ 3. title: governing on the edges: globalization of production and the challenge to public administration in the twenty-first century. authors: abonyi, george; van slyke, david m. abstract: globalization means many things for governments around the world in terms of governance. questions that are left unexplored in the public administration literature are what changes in the globalization of production mean for governments and their relationships with business and civil society, and what the implications are for public administration. the authors develop a conceptual framework that governments can use to shape their interactions with business in more strategically and mutually beneficial ways. the data are derived from extensive fieldwork in the emerging economies of southeast asia. key challenges to government include the importance of understanding global value chains, value chain-related trade facilitation, investment in logistics, the strengthening of enterprise clusters, effective education, skill development and training, and the governance risks inherent in value chains and networks. the essay concludes with a discussion of five key considerations for public administration in thinking, planning, and acting strategically in relationships with the private sector regarding the globalization of production. these considerations are crucial for creating business environments that strengthen economic development and manage societal concerns in ways that are aligned with public values. 4. title: administration without borders. authors: koppell, jonathan gs. abstract: to thrive in 2020, we must conceive of the field of public administration in the broadest possible terms. phenomena that typically have been treated peripherally in our literature are emerging center stage in recent years, confirming that the 'old' boundaries of our discipline do not reflect contemporary reality. after reviewing three key developments-the rise of mixed and nongovernmental institutions in public policy, the increasing importance of market mechanisms, and the assertion of meaningful global regulation-an argument is made for a broader reconception of 'publicness' that goes hand in hand with the embrace of governance in lieu of administration. 5. title: the rise and fall of discipline: economic globalization, administrative reform, and the financial crisis. authors: roberts, alasdair. abstract: throughout the era of economic liberalization (1978-2007), a significant amount of governmental power was transferred to technocrat-guardians who were carefully buffered from elected officials. democratic processes, it was said, had to be disciplined through such reforms if nations were to thrive in a globalized economy. this way of thinking about reform was already under assault before the financial crisis, and it was even more widely questioned during the crisis, as critics doubted the quality of technocratic decision making. this mode of reform-characterized as a 'logic of discipline'-will survive the crisis, but it is unlikely to have the influence that it enjoyed during the era of liberalization. 6. title: minnowbrook iv in 2028: from american minnowbrook to global minnowbrook. authors: bowornwathana, bidhya. abstract: the first minnowbrook conference in 1968 was a big success. the ideas and directions that the field of public administration followed later on were very much influenced by the spirit of minnowbrook i. since then, it has become a practice for american scholars in the field of public administration to meet every 20 years to discuss the future direction of the field. thus, we had minnowbrook ii in 1988 and minnowbrook iii in 2008. when the next 20 year-cycle arrives in 2028, what will happen to minnowbrook iv? 7. title: leading in the shared-power world of 2020. authors: crosby, barbara c. abstract: imagine that citizens and public officials working together over the next decade are able to maximize the democratic potential of today's shared-power, 'no-one-in-charge' world and achieve more sustainable modes of living together on earth. the article focuses on the development of shared or collaborative approaches to leadership, ideas for developing integrative leadership practices that harness new (and old) communications and information technologies, and means of feeding knowledge back and forth between academia and practitioners in order to produce practical wisdom for solving complex public problems. 8. title: sustainability as a conceptual focus for public administration. authors: fiorino, daniel j. abstract: this article argues that sustainability should define the conceptual focus for the field of public administration in the coming decade. sustainability involves three systems: environmental, economic, and political/social systems. the challenge of governance, and thus of public administration, is to sustain each of these systems on its own while maintaining an appropriate balance among them. the article defines the sustainability concept, and its environmental component in particular, in ways that are relevant to public administration; assesses the validity of the concept in terms of the interrelationships and interdependencies among the three systems; and suggests the implications for the field. by integrating knowledge and study of the environmental system with the traditional competence in the political/social and economic systems that is expected in the field, public administrators may achieve a more theoretically complete and empirically valid foundation for education, research, and practice. and just as many apparently insoluble problems have eluded solution until someone discovered the 'right' way to view them, so it may be that our failure to cope adequately with certain large and complex problems of our time is a consequence of failure to see the unifying elements in the complexity. 9. title: ecological governance: organizing principles for an emerging era. authors: robertson, peter j.; choi, taehyon. abstract: the significant reforms being implemented in governance systems around the world reflect a broader transition of society from the modern to a new emerging era. this transition is framed in terms of a shift from a mechanistic to an ecological worldview, stimulated by a number of developments during the twentieth century and the last decade. in contrast to the mechanistic orientation toward reductionism, prediction and control, and competition, an ecological worldview emphasizes the interconnectedness, self-organizing capacity, and coevolutionary dynamics of all natural systems. this emergent worldview yields useful insights regarding the purpose, design, process, and relationships characteristic of organizational systems that strive to play an effective role in the future governance of society. the discussion outlines specific organizing principles pertinent to these four areas, identifying some compatible practices that are already being adopted by public and private organizations. the authors address the possibility that the continued transition to ecological governance may not reflect just a long, slow process of incremental change, but also could entail a sudden, systemic reorientation that results in a faster transformation of the extant institutions of public administration. 10. title: toward a platinum standard for evidence-based assessment by 2020. authors: khagram, sanjeev; thomas, craig w. abstract: the authors argue for a scientifically rigorous, contextually valid, practically relevant, and stakeholder-inclusive platinum standard for evidence-based assessment to improve public administration and third-party governance in the twenty-first century. the platinum standard would encompass two contending gold standards. the first gold standard, based on experimental methods, counterfactuals, and average causal effects, is better known and more institutionalized in practice. the second gold standard, based on case studies, comparative methods, triangulation, and causal mechanisms, is less known. the platinum standard incorporates both sets of standards and provides a framework for integrating them in practice. it recognizes the wide array of goals and methodologies that are appropriate for assessing the performance of public administration and third-party governance initiatives in a dynamic and globalizing world. the two gold standards currently compete for prominence in the field of evidence-based assessment. by 2020, these gold standards should be part of a more inclusive platinum standard. 11. title: at your service? volunteering and national service in 2020. authors: nesbit, rebecca; brudney, jeffrey l. abstract: this article evaluates the potential of the edward m. kennedy serve america act of 2009 to raise the level of volunteering and national service in the united states, particularly among young people, and its implications for public administration in 2020. the act would increase service-learning opportunities and national service placements substantially. research suggests that participation in these activities is associated with increased volunteering, civic and political engagement, and interest in a career in government or nonprofit service, especially among african americans and hispanics. these results hold considerable promise for the practice of public administration in 2020. the authors find that their effectuation depends not only on increasing federal service programs significantly and continuing growth in funding, but also on addressing important challenges, such as the ability of public policy to increase volunteering, volunteer management capacity to support these efforts, the role of volunteering in addressing pressing social issues, and reaching disadvantaged populations. 12. title: the future of national service. authors: reingold, david a.; lenkowsky, leslie. abstract: passage of the serve america act in 2009, reauthorizing the nation's national and community service programs, represented an important milestone. it was the first time these programs and its parent government agency, the u.s. corporation for national and community service, were reauthorized by congress since the early 1990s. while advocates of national and community service have hailed the passage of this bill as evidence that these initiatives work and will play an increasingly important policy role, this level of enthusiasm is not well founded. the role that national and community service will play in public policy in the future is, at best, apt to be a modest one. the authors argue that national and community service will continue to underachieve and fall short of the claims made by advocates until it can gain true bipartisan support, clearly define program goals, and produce rigorous empirical evidence demonstrating the impact of these programs. 13. title: governance infrastructures in 2020. authors: johnston, erik. abstract: a governance infrastructure is the collection of technologies and systems, people, policies, practices, and relationships that interact to support governing activities. information technology, especially communication and computational technologies, continues to augment society's ability to organize, interact, and govern. as we think about the future of governance, this article challenges us to move beyond questions of how to best manage government institutions to how to design smart governance systems with the appropriate incentives and rules to harness and coordinate the enthusiasm and capabilities of those governed. this article anticipates how the interaction of technology and society can be leveraged to mindfully design an interaction-defined, participation-based governance infrastructure to return power to the people while increasing accountability. supporting examples of such governance approaches already exist and are regularly emerging in distributed organizations, online communities, nonprofits, and governments. 14. title: practitioner's perspective-managing for 2020: an exploration of role interdependence and balance. authors: hayward, tansy. abstract: this article examines three roles that local governments play: convening community, providing service, and creating and enforcing regulation. the author uses the concept of polarity management to explore how local governments can strike a balance among these roles, and explores how individual employees and organizations can disrupt that balance by favoring individual roles. particular focus is placed on local government deficiency in employing the community convener or community engagement role. 15. title: governing cities in the coming decade: the democratic and regional disconnects. authors: barnes, william r. abstract: how will cities be governed in 2020? the answer will depend to a significant degree on reducing two 'disconnects': one between municipal government and its citizenry, and the other between municipal government and its region. elected, managerial, and intellectual leaders need to strengthen their understanding, capacities, and skills regarding public engagement and regional engagement across jurisdictional boundaries. enhanced performance of these functions will improve cities' ability to address problems and seize opportunities in the decade ahead. 16. title: the future of local government: twenty-first-century challenges. authors: warner, mildred e. abstract: local governments in the twenty-first century face challenges regarding service delivery, finance, the workforce, and citizen engagement. while privatization was a major innovation in the last decades of the twentieth century, lack of costs savings and the loss of public values in market provision are prompting reversals in privatization, increases in regulation, and new approaches to government enterprise. the twenty-first century must focus on rebuilding the capacity of local governments to finance critical infrastructure, attract and retain a skilled labor force, and engage citizen in designing innovative solutions to address public problems. innovations in public service delivery will move beyond public private partnerships to models that more effectively balance accountability, equity, and efficiency concerns. 17. title: understanding the role of the manager in organizational performance and community engagement. authors: berry, frances stokes. abstract: we can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. 18. title: form follows function? authors: yanow, dvora. abstract: it is the pervading law of all things organic and inorganic, of all things physical and metaphysical, of all things human and all things superhuman, ... that form ever follows function. this is the law. 19. title: strategic management and public service performance: the way ahead. authors: boyne, george a.; walker, richard m. abstract: strategic management is now prominent on the agenda of public administration scholars and practitioners. in this review, the authors outline why approaches based on strategy are suited to public agencies, noting the ways in which strategy varies across public organizations, seeks to match internal capacities to organizational environments, and shapes the impact of external and internal constraints on performance. empirical evidence on the impact of strategy on performance is placed under the microscope, and while there are many positive relationships, the evidence base is limited in terms of its scope, data, methods, measures, and coverage. the authors trace out what needs to be done to move the field forward, noting in particular that theoretical enrichment, empirical variety, and explanations of causal complexity are likely to come from a synthesis of models of strategy and publicness. 20. title: practitioner's perspective-improving sourcing decisions. authors: breul, jonathan d. abstract: federal departments and agencies increasingly rely on services to accomplish their missions. 'sourcing' refers to how government departments and agencies obtain the services they need to solve their mission delivery requirements and how those decisions are reached. determining whether to obtain required services using federal employees or contracts with the private sector is an important legal, policy, economic, and strategic decision. the impact of decisions on the total federal workforce, both in house and those under contract, is profound. this article describes the issue of 'sourcing,' provides definitions and distinctions regarding some often confusing (and confused) terms, and suggests the possibility of new forms of sourcing. the author concludes that sourcing should not be subject to a rigid pursuit of sterile, ideological orthodoxy. instead, sourcing requires a reasoned and thoughtful approach, tempered with pragmatism. the proper balance of these characteristics will vary across agencies because each has a different mission, structure, funding mix, and workforce. 21. title: what if hurricane katrina hit in 2020? the need for strategic management of disasters. authors: mcguire, michael; schneck, debra. abstract: what would another hurricane katrina bring in 2020? is government at all levels ready for such an event? this essay argues that learning to manage actions supporting disaster response and recovery operations consistently and effectively requires strategic, not reactive, thinking. it adopts a framework based in issues focused thinking, externally focused management, and opportunity-seeking behavior to examine the complex mix of individuals, organizations, and actions involved in response and recovery. the authors conclude that strides have been made since katrina, but the development of greater strategic capacity is a necessary prerequisite to effective disaster management in the future. wise and fortunate indeed is that community that has so analyzed its problems and needs, and has so prepared to make use of catastrophe should it come by plans for carrying out programs of improvements, that the aftermath of tragedy finds its victims as well cared for as humanly possible and in addition some tangible new advance in the equipment and life of the community. 22. title: the suspect handmaiden: the evolution of politics and administration in the american state. authors: moynihan, donald p.; ingraham, patricia w. abstract: scholars of an earlier era predicted a more secure role for the administrative state in american political culture. this vision overlooked a historical irony that governs the relationship between politics and administration. for american society, the administrative state is a suspect handmaiden. citizens have looked to public administration to enable extraordinary growth while simultaneously distrusting it. in recent decades, these contradictory trends have grown. the growth of the state, increased polarization, and political attacks on government have produced a set of values, perspectives, and capabilities that often do not mesh with one another or with many governmental activities. as a result, we find outdated mechanisms of accountability, politicization, and a broader illegitimacy that threatens the capacity of the state to act effectively. in 1942, the university of chicago press published a book edited by leonard d. white titled the future of government in the united states. each chapter in the book presents predictions concerning the future of u.s. public administration. in this article, donald p. moynihan and patricia w. ingraham examine the predictions of v. o. key in his famous essay on politics and administration published in that book, comment on whether key's predictions were correct, and look to the future to examine public administration in 2020. 23. title: the public service of the future. authors: perry, james l.; buckwalter, neal d. abstract: this article seeks to identify the status and infrastructure of public service in 2020. it first examines leonard white's early effort at predicting a future search for public service, written in 1942, but with an eye toward the 1950s and 1960s. the authors assess the subsequent structural and ideological development of public service to lay a framework for their own projection of the public service of the future. they anticipate important foundational shifts that will lead to a revaluing of public service and opportunities to reinvigorate public work. the authors conclude with a list of six specific public service infrastructure changes that they anticipate will become manifest by 2020. in 1942, the university of chicago press published a book edited by leonard d. white titled the future of government in the united states. each chapter in the book presents predictions concerning the future of u.s. public administration. in this article, james l. perry and neal d. buckwalter examine white's predictions for the future of public service published in that book, comment on whether white's predictions were correct, and look to the future to examine public administration in 2020. 24. title: the future of strategic planning in the public sector: linking strategic management and performance. authors: poister, theodore h. abstract: while it has become ubiquitous in the public sector over the past 25 years, strategic planning will need to play a more critical role in 2020 than it does at present if public managers are to anticipate and manage change adroitly and effectively address new issues that are likely to emerge with increasing rapidity. this article argues that making strategy more meaningful in the future will require transitioning from strategic planning to the broader process of strategic management, which involves managing an agency's overall strategic agenda on an ongoing rather than an episodic basis, as well as ensuring that strategies are implemented effectively. complementing this move to more holistic strategic management, we need to shift the emphasis of the performance movement from a principal concern with measurement to the more encompassing process of performance management over the coming decade in order to focus more proactively on achieving strategic goals and objectives. finally, agencies will need to link their strategic management and ongoing performance management processes more closely in a reciprocating relationship in which strategizing is aimed largely at defining and strengthening overall performance while performance monitoring helps to inform strategy along the way. : in 1942, the university of chicago press published a book edited by leonard d. white titled the future of government in the united states. each chapter in the book presents predictions concerning the future of u.s. public administration. in this article, theodore h. poister examines john vieg's predictions on the future of government planning published in that book, comments on whether vieg's predictions were correct not, and then looks to the future to examine public administration in 2020. 25. title: the future of public and nonprofit strategic planning in the united states. authors: bryson, john m. abstract: strategic planning is now a ubiquitous practice in u.s. governments and nonprofit organizations. the practice has become widespread for many reasons, but the chief one is the evidence that strategic planning typically 'works,' and often works extremely well. improvements in strategic planning practice are likely to come as it is seen and researched in its full richness as a practice, or set of practices. several predictions are offered about the future of strategic planning practice and research. in 1942, the university of chicago press published a book edited by leonard d. white titled the future of government in the united states. each chapter in the book presents predictions concerning the future of u.s. public administration. in this article, john m. bryson examines john vieg's predictions on the future of government planning published in that book, comments on whether vieg's predictions were correct, and then looks to the future to examine public administration in 2020. 26. title: harris's mirage: the positive service state. authors: roberts, alasdair. abstract: in 1942, joseph harris anticipated that the united states would develop a highly centralized and rationalized welfare state. the forecast was largely mistaken. the united states did develop an expansive national security apparatus that was relatively centralized and rationalized. by contrast, domestic policies were unevenly developed, and often highly decentralized in design. harris's forecast was unduly influenced by his own observations of trends immediately before world war ii. he underestimated the powerful underlying forces that have historically checked centralization in the united states, and regained strength in the postwar period. in 1942, the university of chicago press published a book edited by leonard d. white titled the future of government in the united states. each chapter in the book presents predictions concerning the future of u.s. public administration. in this article, alasdair roberts examines joseph harris's predictions on the future of 'administrative management' in that book, comments on whether harris' predictions were correct, and then looks to the future to examine public administration in 2020. 27. title: learning from the past, committing to the future: a practitioner's view of our democracy. authors: lukensmeyer, carolyn j. abstract: american democracy is at a pivotal moment: electoral dysfunction, low levels of participation, divisive politics, and power imbalances dominate governance and impede our ability to resolve critical issues facing the nation. in this environment, the author argues, our ability to be the representative system of government we claim is in question. using harold d. lasswell's 1942 essay 'the developing science of democracy' as a vehicle for reflection, the author reviews progress and challenges in democratic practice today along four dimensions: information delivery and knowledge building; accurate capturing of citizens' views; conducting democratic conversations; and maintaining balances of power. among the reforms necessary to address persistent challenges in each of these areas, explored in depth is the institutionalization of citizen voice in governance. seven elements of an infrastructure to achieve such an institutionalization are reviewed: a mandatory legislative framework; designated physical spaces; specific technological, human, and organizational capacity; a trustworthy media; and a recommitment to civic education. 28. title: governance, structure, and democracy: luther gulick and the future of public administration. authors: meier, kenneth j. abstract: luther gulick was both an academic and a reformer. in the latter role, he thought seriously about what the future of public administration might look like. this essay examines his work as a lens through which to view the future of public administration in 2020. gulick suggests that public administration needs a governance orientation to link scholarship with the realities of practice, a recognition of the bias of structures, a stress on the informal elements of organization, additional research on almost every question, a recognition of the importance of ethics, a stress on the importance of context, and a fundamental appreciation of the role that public management plays in fostering democracy. $&(,.0<=>?@i��̻̻��r]h3h(h�a{h`_y5�b*ojqj^jajph(h�a{hu<�5�b*ojqj^jajph(h�a{h�ud5�b*ojqj^jajphh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo( h 2e5�cjojqj^jajo(h 2e5�cjojqj^jaj h`_y5�cjojqj^jajo(#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h�e�5�cjojqj^jajo( h`_y5�cjojqj^jajo(=>?��a b � � ��t��1��gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gd�"��` a b c e l � � � 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