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��ࡱ�>�� _a����^��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������u �r�:#bjbj�n�n26��a��a, �������""������������8�<5��oliiiii}}} ooooooo$�p��s<3o�}}}}}3o��ii4ho###}f�i�i o#} o###i����p�u 3������(#�n^o0�o#�s x�s##�0�s��k }}#}}}}}3o3oc�}}}�o}}}}���������������������������������������������������������������������s}}}}}}}}}"q s: the american economic review volume 113, issue 12, dec 2023 1. title: the (lack of) anticipatory effects of the social safety net on human capital investment. authors: deshpande, manasi; dizon-ross, rebecca. abstract: how does the expectation that a child will receive government benefits in adulthood affect parental investments in the child's human capital? most parents whose children receive supplemental security income (ssi) benefits overestimate the likelihood that their child will receive ssi benefits in adulthood. we present randomly selected families with the predicted likelihood that their child will receive ssi benefits in adulthood. reducing parents' expectations that children will receive benefits in adulthood does not increase investments in children's human capital. this zero effect is precisely estimated. likely explanations include parents working more themselves, nonfinancial goals influencing investment, and families facing investment constraints. 2. title: identifying the benefits from homeownership: a swedish experiment. authors: sodini, paolo; van nieuwerburgh, stijn; vestman, roine; von lilienfeld-toal, ulf. abstract: homeownership is widely stimulated by policy, yet its economic effects are poorly understood. we exploit quasi-random variation in homeownership generated by privatization decisions of municipally owned buildings and use granular data on demographics, income, housing, financial wealth, and debt that allow us to construct high-quality measures of spending. homeownership causes wealth accumulation via house price appreciation, increases consumption, and improves consumption smoothing across time and states of the world. it increases mobility for young households, who move up the property ladder, and amplifies wealth accumulation for older households, who take more risk in their financial portfolio. 3. title: intergenerational mobility in american history: accounting for race and measurement error. authors: ward, zachary. abstract: a large body of evidence finds that relative mobility in the us has declined over the past 150 years. however, long-run mobility estimates are usually based on white samples and therefore do not account for the limited opportunities available for nonwhite families. moreover, historical data measure the father's status with error, which biases estimates toward greater mobility. using linked census data from 1850 to 1940, i show that accounting for race and measurement error can double estimates of intergenerational persistence. updated estimates imply that there is greater equality of opportunity today than in the past, mostly because opportunity was never that equal. 4. title: populist leaders and the economy. authors: funke, manuel; schularick, moritz; trebesch, christoph. abstract: populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25 percent of nations currently governed by populists. how do economies perform under populist leaders? we build a new long-run cross-country database to study the macroeconomic history of populism. we identify 51 populist presidents and prime ministers from 1900 to 2020 and show that the economic cost of populism is high. after 15 years, gdp per capita is 10 percent lower compared to a plausible nonpopulist counterfactual. economic disintegration, decreasing macroeconomic stability, and the erosion of institutions typically go hand in hand with populist rule. 5. title: happy times: measuring happiness using response times. authors: liu, shuo; netzer, nick. abstract: surveys measuring happiness or preferences generate discrete ordinal data. ordered response models, which are used to analyze such data, suffer from an identification problem. their conclusions depend on distributional assumptions about a latent variable. we propose using response times to solve that problem. response times contain information about the distribution of the latent variable through a chronometric effect. using an online survey experiment, we verify the chronometric effect. we then provide theoretical conditions for testing conventional distributional assumptions. these assumptions are rejected in some cases, but overall our evidence is consistent with the qualitative validity of the conventional models. 6. title: america, jump-started: world war ii r&d and the takeoff of the us innovation system. authors: gross, daniel p.; sampat, bhaven n. abstract: during world war ii, the us government's office of scientific research and development (osrd) supported one of the largest public investments in applied r&d in us history. using data on all osrd-funded invention, we show this shock had a formative impact on the us innovation system, catalyzing technology clusters across the country, with accompanying increases in high-tech entrepreneur-ship and employment. these effects persist until at least the 1970s and appear to be driven by agglomerative forces and endogenous growth. in addition to creating technology clusters, wartime r&d permanently changed the trajectory of overall us innovation in the direction of osrd-funded technologies. 7. title: taking it to the limit: effects of increased student loan availability on attainment, earnings, and financial well-being. authors: black, sandra e.; denning, jeffrey t.; dettling, lisa j.; goodman, sarena; turner, lesley j. abstract: growing reliance on student loans and repayment difficulties have raised concerns of a student debt crisis in the united states, but little is known about the effects of student borrowing on human capital and long-run financial well-being. we use variation induced by recent expansions in federal loan limits combined with administrative data-sets to identify the effects of increased access to student loans on credit-constrained students' educational attainment, earnings, debt, and loan repayment. increased student loan availability raises student debt and improves degree completion, later-life earnings, and student loan repayment, while having no effect on homeownership or other types of debt. 8. title: who benefits from state corporate tax cuts? a local labor market approach with heterogeneous firms: reply. authors: su�rez serrato, juan carlos; zidar, owen. abstract: in su�rez serrato and zidar (2016), we estimate the incidence of state corporate taxes. malgouyres, mayer, and mazet-sonilhac (2023) highlight two errors, ignoring effects on firm composition and characterizing capital costs inconsistently. this reply corrects the structural model and corresponding incidence estimates. the incidence results are similar to the originally reported estimates and the confidence intervals widen for some estimates. in the corrected structural model, the firm owner incidence share estimate changes by 1.6 percentage points relative to the original version (i.e., 38.1 percent versus 36.5 percent). the worker share estimate is 35.0 percent. landowners bear the remaining 26.8 percent.     $'/1369;<=?h������ʸʸʸ���~qcuhc=hicy5�ojqj^jhj�5�ojqj^jo(h �h �5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h�]5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h�1�h�1�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#h �h �5�cjojqj^jaj<=>��� � " } ij��uv��ij������������������������gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gd �gd�l$gd%j,gdt=|gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4������ � � � � � � ! 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