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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�kbjbj�n�n2 ��a��aw� ��""��8��4�bul��atctctctctctct$�v�dyf�tu��t��4�t1!1!1!"��at1!at1!1!1!��e��71!mtu0bu1!�ys:�y1!1!0�y�=q1!�t�t��bu��y"qs: global environmental change volume 76, issue 5, september 2022 1. title: environmental benefits of circular economy approach to use of cobalt authors: saeed rahimpour golroudbary, javier farfan, alena lohrmann, andrzej kraslawski abstract: cobalt is an important critical material and a constituent of a broad range of products such as batteries, electronics, superalloys, and hard metals. effective recycling of cobalt is considered one of the most pivotal processes in alleviating its criticality. in this paper, using the dynamic modelling of material, energy, and water flows in cobalt supply chain, we show that by 2050 around 25% of the total demand for cobalt could be supplied by recycling. our results indicate that, compared to the primary production of cobalt, its recycling might lead to a reduction of energy consumption by 46% associated with the global cobalt supply chain and the corresponding fall in the use of water by 40%. in addition, recycling of cobalt is estimated to mitigate around 59% of the total emissions of greenhouse gases and 98% of the total emissions of sulfur oxides. finally, we present the regionally distributed projections of cobalt-related energy and water use from 2020 to 2050. 2. title: drivers of future fluvial flood risk change for residential buildings in europe authors: max steinhausen, dominik paprotny, francesco dottori, nivedita sairam, ... kai schr�ter abstract: flooding is the most costly natural hazard in europe. climatic and socioeconomic change are expected to further increase the amount of loss in the future. to counteract this development, policymaking, and adaptation planning need reliable large-scale risk assessments and an improved understanding of potential risk drivers. in this study, recent datasets for hazard and flood protection standards are combined with high resolution exposure projections and attributes of vulnerability derived from open data sources. the independent and combined influence of exposure change and climate scenarios rcp45 and rcp85 on fluvial flood risk are evaluated for three future periods centered around 2025, 2055 and 2085. scenarios with improved and neglected private precaution are examined for their influence on flood risk using a probabilistic, multivariable flood loss model � bn-flemops � to estimate fluvial flood losses for residential buildings in europe. the results on nuts-3 level reveal that urban centers and their surrounding regions are the hotspots of flood risk in europe. flood risk is projected to increase in the british isles and central europe throughout the 21st century, while risk in many regions of scandinavia and the mediterranean will stagnate or decline. under the combined effects of exposure change and climate scenarios rcp45, rcp85, fluvial flood risk in europe is estimated to increase seven-fold and ten-fold respectively until the end of the century. our results confirm the dominance of socioeconomic change over climate change on increasing risk. improved private precautionary measures would reduce flood risk in europe on an average by 15%. the quantification of future flood risk in europe by integrating climate, socioeconomic and private precaution scenarios provides an overview of risk drivers, trends, and hotspots. this large-scale comprehensive assessment at a regional level resolution is valuable for multi-scale risk-based adaptation planning. 3. title: the impact of the sustainable development goals on a network of 276 international organizations authors: maya bogers, frank biermann, agni kalfagianni, rakhyun e. kim, ... martine g. de vos abstract: global sustainability governance is marked by a highly fragmented system of distinct clusters of international organizations, along with states and other actors. enhancing inter-organizational coordination and cooperation is thus often recognized as an important reform challenge in global sustainability governance. the 17 sustainable development goals, agreed by the united nations in 2015, thus explicitly aim at advancing policy coherence and institutional integration among the myriad international institutions. yet, have these goals been effective in this regard? we assess here the impact of the sustainable development goals on the network structure of 276 international organizations in the period 2012�2019, that is, four years before and four years after the launch of the sustainable development goals. the network structure was approximated by analyzing data from the websites of these 276 international organizations that were joined by more than 1.5 million hyperlinks, which we collected using a custom-made web crawler. our findings are contrary to what is widely expected from the sustainable development goals: we find that fragmentation has in fact increased after the sustainable development goals came into effect. in addition, silos are increasing around the 17 sdgs as well as around the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. 4. title: the role of protected areas and land tenure regimes on forest loss in bolivia: accounting for spatial spillovers authors: s�bastien boillat, m. graziano ceddia, patrick bottazzi abstract: the conversion of tropical forests to croplands and grasslands is a major threat to global biodiversity, climate and local livelihoods and ecosystems. the enforcement of protected areas as well as the clarification and strengthening of collective and individual land property rights are key instruments to curb deforestation in the tropics. however, these instruments are territorial and can displace forest loss elsewhere. we investigate the effects of protected areas and various land tenure regimes on deforestation and possible spillover effects in bolivia, a global tropical deforestation hotspot. we use a spatial durbin model to assess and compare the direct and indirect effects of protected areas and different land tenure forms on forest loss in bolivia from 2010 to 2017. we find that protected areas have a strong direct effect on reducing deforestation. protected areas � which in bolivia are all based on co-management schemes - also protect forests in adjacent areas, showing an indirect protective spillover effect. indigenous lands however only have direct forest protection effects. non-indigenous collective lands and small private lands, which are associated to andean settlers, as well as non-titled lands, show a strong positive direct effect on deforestation. at the same time, there is some evidence that non-indigenous collective lands also encourage deforestation in adjacent areas, indicating the existence of spillovers. interestingly, areas with high poverty rate tend to be less affected by deforestation whatever tenure form. our study stresses the need to assess more systematically the direct and indirect effects of land tenure and of territorial governance instruments on land use changes. 5. title: local temperature anomalies increase climate policy interest and support: analysis of internet searches and us congressional vote shares authors: matthew r. sisco, elke u. weber abstract: two studies examine the effects of temperature anomalies (relative to ten-year averages) on interest in and support for climate policies. study 1 analyzes the impacts of local temperature anomalies on information acquisition, namely google searches, about climate change and climate policies. we find strong evidence that temperature anomalies are associated with increased climate change information acquisition. our results show that deviations from seasonal norms in both directions (i.e., temperatures higher or lower than expected) predict increased interest. study 2 analyzes voting for republican candidates, who in the timeframe of our data were not likely to support climate policies. analysis of voting records from ten us midterm elections from 2002 to 2020 shows that greater local temperature anomalies are significantly associated with lower vote shares for republican candidates. 6. title: compound[ing] disasters in puerto rico: pathways for virtual transdisciplinary collaboration to enhance community resilience authors: m.j. stablein, j. gonzalez cruz, e.n. fidan, j. talbot, ... l.f. rodr�guez abstract: puerto rico has been subject to complex and compounding effects of multiple disasters, exacerbated by sociopolitical, climactic, and geographical challenges that complicate relief and resilience. interdisciplinary teams are uniquely suited to traverse emerging challenges in post-disaster settings, but there are few studies that leverage transdisciplinary skill sets and virtual co-production of knowledge to build on local autonomous responses. communities are key sources of information and innovation which can serve as a model for recovery amidst disaster. thus, an interdisciplinary team of emerging scholars collaborated with caras con causa, a local organization in cata�o, puerto rico, to develop processes for enhancing autonomous responses to disaster events through participatory pathways, specifically highlighting local knowledge and preferences. the results of this collaboration include: (1) an iterative process model for transdisciplinary co-production in virtual settings and (2) key highlights from post engagement reflections including community-scale definitions of disaster, and limitations to virtual collaboration amidst disaster. together, these results yielded critical insights and lessons learned, including recommendations for improved project communication methods within transdisciplinary and virtual collaborations. collectively, the process, it�s resulting products, and the post-engagement reflections demonstrate a pathway for scholars and community members to engage disaster resilience challenges. these strategies are most effectively practiced through focused collaboration with community stakeholders and are paramount in solving real-world challenges related to the increasing complex of compounding disasters. 7. title: necessity-driven circular economy in low-income contexts: how informal sector practices retain value for circularity authors: angelina korsunova, minna halme, arno kourula, jarkko lev�nen, maria lima-toivanen abstract: low-income informal sector contexts are rife in practices that retain value of materials and goods, but in the academic literature and policy debates these practices are seldom considered as part of the circular economy (ce). this is a major omission in ce discourse, as over 60 percent of the world�s employed population is in the informal sector and many of them make their living from circularity practices. hence, our paper advances a globally covering understanding of ce by focusing on local practices constituting ce in the overlooked contexts of low-income informal markets of emerging economies, and on the motives behind the practices. to that end we introduce the notion of necessity-driven circular economy, defined as a set of locally embedded and interlinked formal and informal practices aimed at restoring and retaining the value of goods and materials for as long as possible, based on economic necessity and opportunities for income generation. we substantiate this conceptual work with our empirical findings from low-income urban communities in brazil, india, and tanzania. this allows us to capture the essential characteristics of necessity-driven circular economy. these characteristics draw attention to the social and cultural embeddedness and the interweaving of consumption and production in necessity-driven circular economy, as opposed to the dominant techno-economic and industry-focused circular economy conceptualizations that are typical in academic discourse and portray developed country contexts. finally, we discuss conceptual and practical relevance of necessity-driven circular economy and point out its system-level implications for policymakers and businesses. 8. title: climate anxiety: conceptual considerations, and connections with climate hope and action authors: julia sangervo, kirsti m. jylh�, panu pihkala abstract: climate anxiety is a phenomenon which raises growing attention. based on a national survey of climate-related feelings and behaviors (n = 2070) in finland, we analyzed and discussed the concept of climate anxiety and its relationship with hope and action. we found that all our measures for climate anxiety (including worry and some stronger manifestations of anxiety) and hope (including efficacy beliefs) correlated positively with each other and climate action. furthermore, climate anxiety and hope explained unique parts of variance in self-reported climate action. we propose that, in line with the extended parallel process model (eppm) that was used as a framework, the interplay of emotions needs to be considered when studying and explaining their effect on climate action. in conclusion, the results provide support for seeing climate anxiety and hope as intertwined and adaptive feelings, which could be needed to motivate humankind in finding solutions to climate change. 9. title: evaluating the benefits of national adaptation to reduce climate risks and contribute to the sustainable development goals authors: lena i. fuldauer, daniel adshead, scott thacker, sarah gall, jim w. hall abstract: scaling up national climate adaptation under the paris agreement is critical not only to reduce risk, but also to contribute to a nation�s development. traditional adaptation assessments are aimed at evaluating adaptation to cost-effectively reduce risk and do not capture the far-reaching benefits of adaptation in the context of development and the global sustainable development goals (sdgs). by grounding adaptation planning in an sdg vision, we propose and demonstrate a methodological process that for the first time allows national decision-makers to: i) quantify the adaptation that is needed to safeguard sdg target progress, and ii) evaluate strategies of stakeholder-driven adaptation options to meet those needs whilst delivering additional sdg target co-benefits. this methodological process is spatially applied to a national adaptation assessment in ghana. in the face of the country�s risk from floods and landslides, this analysis identifies which energy and transport assets to prioritise in order to make the greatest contribution to safeguarding development progress. three strategies (�built�, �nature-based�, �combined sdg strategy�) were formulated through a multi-stakeholder partnership involving government, the private sector, and academia as a means to protect ghana�s prioritised assets against climate risk. evaluating these adaptation strategies in terms of their ability to deliver on sdg targets, we find that the combined sdg strategy maximises sdg co-benefits across 116 targets. the proposed methodological process for integrating sdg targets in adaptation assessments is transferable to other climate-vulnerable nations, and can provide decision-makers with spatially-explicit evidence for implementing sustainable adaptation in alignment with the global agendas. 10. title: assisted network governance: an inclusive innovation to mitigate extreme water scarcity authors: denise guti�rrez, johannes gl�ckler abstract: we study a local innovation of natural resource governance in chile in times of extreme water scarcity. through the issuance of a scarcity decree, the government obliges local water user associations (wuas) to reach viable water redistribution agreements in order to avoid being overruled by the state. in the aconcagua river, the government together with the wuas created the executive committee, where only the wuas have a vote, but private and public stakeholders participate in the process of negotiating water use agreements. grounded on thematic coding of the detailed minutes of over 80 committee meetings since its inception, we examine the workings of a new local model of assisted network governance (ang). based on content and social network analysis of over 1,000 directed interactions among committee members, we find that ang, as an element of broader hybrid governance, has not only produced viable agreements for immediate water redistribution, but has also facilitated longer-term system improvements by building mutual understanding, resolving conflicts, and mobilizing external resources to improve infrastructure. we conclude that ang helps accomplish common objectives in the field of natural resources under conditions of extreme water scarcity. 11. title: china�s pathway to carbon neutrality for the iron and steel industry authors: xiang yu, chang tan abstract: as a hard-to-abate sector, the iron and steel industry is responsible for 22% of china�s total carbon emissions and therefore plays a crucial role in achieving china�s carbon peaking and neutrality target. nearly 90% of china�s iron and steel output is produced with coal-based blast furnaces, which results in high carbon emission intensity. to peak china�s carbon emissions and achieve the carbon neutrality target, it is essential to accelerate the application of breakthrough technologies such as carbon capture and storage (ccs) and hydrogen-based steel-making. this paper estimates the future co2 emissions from china�s iron and steel industry in pathways that consider the influence of different technology portfolios, technology maturity, decarbonization of power systems, and future steel production output. the results show that using currently available technology, china�s iron and steel industry can reduce co2 emissions by more than 50%. however, it cannot achieve the neutrality target without using innovative technologies. by combining conventional strategies with net-zero emission technologies such as ccs and hydrogen metallurgy, approximately 80�90% emission reduction can be achieved, thus leading to a carbon neutrality pathway, which can meet the 1.5�c targets of the carbon budget limit either. in the future, carbon emissions' reduction potential will be influenced by the decarbonization of power systems and the diffusion rate of innovative technologies. to achieve carbon neutrality, it is essential to act sooner and faster. 12. title: are managed retreat programs successful and just? a global mapping of success typologies, justice dimensions, and trade-offs authors: idowu ajibade, meghan sullivan, chris lower, lizzie yarina, allie reilly abstract: as managed retreat programs expand across the globe, there is an urgent need to assess whether these programs are reducing exposure to climatic hazards, enhancing adaptive capacity, and improving the living conditions of communities in a just and equitable manner or are they exacerbating existing risks and vulnerabilities? strictly speaking, are retreat programs successful? using an expansive intersectional justice approach to examine 138 post-resettlement case studies published between 2000 and 2021 across the global north and south, we identified five typologies of success � techno-managerial, eco-restorative, compensatory, reformative, and transformative � and their trade-offs and synergies. our meta-analysis incorporated a variety of metrics: relocation types, funding, decision making, socio-economic class, land use change, livelihood options, and social impacts. we found 26% of cases failed, 43% were successful, and 30% are on-going and therefore success was undetermined. the techno-managerial cases, while successful in the limited terms of relocating residents, paid little attention to equity and justice. the eco-restorative and compensatory cases reduced hazard exposure but revealed the synergies and tensions associated with social, ecological, and intergenerational justice. the reformative and transformative cases improved community wellbeing, rootedness, and access to livelihoods while incorporating diverse justice concerns to different degrees. by intersecting these typologies with multiple dimensions of justice, this study advances a novel planning and analytical tool for assessing the potential success or failure of current and future retreat programs. 13. title: the open veins of latin america: long-term physical trade flows (1900�2016) authors: juan infante-amate, alexander urrego-mesa, pablo pi�ero, enric tello abstract: latin america has long played a key role in the global provision of natural resources. most of the continent's economies are net exporters of low-value, primary products and importers of manufactured goods at a high price. this pattern of specialised trade has highly negative consequences for economic development, the environment, and the local population�s wellbeing. yet to date, little empirical evidence has been collected on latin america�s total contribution to the rest of the world's regions in historical perspective. applying the material flow accounting methodology, this paper estimates the physical and monetary trade of 16 latin american economies between 1900 and 2016. our results show that: (i) yearly net exports of materials went from 4 mt to 610 mt between 1900 and 2016, and greatly accelerated since the world war ii. (ii) latin america is a net exporter of most types of materials (fossil fuels, non-energy minerals and biomass), so it harbours socio-environmental problems associated with different types of extractivism. (iii) different regional export patterns exist: andeans export subsoil (mining and energy carriers) while the rest export soil (land-based products). the countries with the lowest net exports are the smallest in size and with the highest population density. (iv) europe and the usa have historically received most of the imports, but since the end of the twentieth century, the southeast asia region is the biggest importer of materials from latin america. (v) the price received for exported material is much lower than the price paid for imported material; and (vi) various historical periods can be differentiated regarding the relationship between economic growth and physical trade balance. 14. title: governing people on the move in a warming world: framing climate change migration and the unfccc task force on displacement authors: lisa vanhala, elisa calliari abstract: different ways of framing the nexus between climate change and migration have been advanced in academic, advocacy and policy circles. some understand it as a state-security issue, some take a protection (or human security) approach and yet others portray migration as an adaptation or climate risk management strategy. yet we have little insight into how these different understandings of the �problem� of climate change-related migration are beginning to shape the emergence of global governance in the climate regime. through a focus on the unfccc task force on displacement we argue that these different framings of climate change migration shape how actors understand the appropriate role of the tfd, including the substantive scope of its mandate; its operational priorities; the nature of its outputs and where it should be situated in the institutional architecture. we show that understanding the different framings of the nexus between climate change and migration � and how these framings are contested within the unfccc � can help to account for institutional development in this area of climate governance. 15. title: how the future of the global forest sink depends on timber demand, forest management, and carbon policies authors: adam daigneault, justin s. baker, jinggang guo, pekka lauri, ... brent sohngen abstract: deforestation has contributed significantly to net greenhouse gas emissions, but slowing deforestation, regrowing forests and other ecosystem processes have made forests a net sink. deforestation will still influence future carbon fluxes, but the role of forest growth through aging, management, and other silvicultural inputs on future carbon fluxes are critically important but not always recognized by bookkeeping and integrated assessment models. when projecting the future, it is vital to capture how management processes affect carbon storage in ecosystems and wood products. this study uses multiple global forest sector models to project forest carbon impacts across 81 shared socioeconomic (ssp) and climate mitigation pathway scenarios. we illustrate the importance of modeling management decisions in existing forests in response to changing demands for land resources, wood products and carbon. although the models vary in key attributes, there is general agreement across a majority of scenarios that the global forest sector could remain a carbon sink in the future, sequestering 1.2 5.8 gtco2e/yr over the next century. carbon fluxes in the baseline scenarios that exclude climate mitigation policy ranged from "0.8 to 4.9 gtco2e/yr, highlighting the strong influence of ssps on forest sector model estimates. improved forest management can jointly increase carbon stocks and harvests without expanding forest area, suggesting that carbon fluxes from managed forests systems deserve more careful consideration by the climate policy community. 16. title: localized versus wide-ranging effects of the post-soviet wars in the caucasus on agricultural abandonment authors: johanna buchner, van butsic, he yin, tobias kuemmerle, ... volker c. radeloff abstract: wars are frequent and can affect land use substantially, but the effects of wars can vary greatly depending on their characteristics, such as intensity or duration. furthermore, the spatial scale of the effects can differ. the effects of wars may be localized and thus close to conflict locations if direct mechanisms matter most (e.g., abandonment because active fighting precludes farming), or wide-ranging, e.g., farther away from conflict locations, if indirect mechanisms predominate (e.g., no access to agricultural inputs). our goal was to quantify how the very different wars in the caucasus region during post-soviet times most likely affected agricultural abandonment at different scales. we analyzed data on conflict locations plus landsat-derived land-cover data from 1987 to 2015, and applied matching statistics, difference-in-differences estimators, and logistic panel regressions. we examined the localized versus wide-ranging effects of the different wars on permanent agricultural abandonment and inferred to direct and indirect mechanisms that may have resulted in agricultural abandonment. while permanent agricultural abandonment was overall surprisingly limited across the caucasus, up to one third of abandonment was most likely related to the wars. among the wars, the war in chechnya was by far the most intense and longest, but its effect on abandonment was similar to the less intense and relatively short war in abkhazia. 47 % and 45 % of agricultural abandonment was related to each war, respectively. the reason was that the effect of the war in chechnya was more localized, and abandonment occurred near conflict locations, in contrast to abkhazia, where the effect was wide-ranging and abandonment occurred farther away from conflict locations. in contrast, the war in south ossetia showed no significant effect on abandonment, and the war in nagorno-karabakh had the surprising pattern that abandonment was higher where no war had occurred. for each of the wars, abandonment was predominately related to the nearest conflict locations, but in abkhazia additional conflict locations within 10 km further increased the probability of abandonment. we infer that the direct mechanisms of the war such as bombing, and active fighting most likely resulted in a localized effect close to conflict locations in chechnya and in nagorno-karabakh. however, in nagorno-karabakh subsidies for new settlers after the war, (i.e., a positive wide-ranging effect), potentially reduced the amount of abandonment there. in contrast, negative wide-ranging effects such as refugee movements and post-war restrictions on their return is related to broad-scale abandonment in abkhazia. in summary, permanent agricultural abandonment was not necessarily higher in a war with a high overall intensity. instead, the effect of a given war varied in scale, and was related to the relative importance of direct and localized versus indirect and wide-ranging mechanisms, including postwar events and policies, which is likely the case for other wars, too. 17. title: understanding drivers of global urban bird diversity authors: alice c. hughes, michael c. orr, fumin lei, qinmin yang, huijie qiao abstract: the relevance of analyzing effects of environmental regulation on innovation cannot be overemphasized. in this paper, we first develop a theoretical model to predict how command-and-control environmental regulation affects innovation, and then we derive its channels. using the difference-in-difference-in-differences strategy and a comprehensive dataset at city-industry-year level of manufacturing sectors in china, we found that the more stringent environmental regulations that are faced by cities, measured by the reduction targets of chemical oxygen demand (cod) and sulfur dioxide (so2) during the eleventh five-year plan, are negatively associated with innovation. thus, the evidence contradicts the porter hypothesis. on average, a one standard deviation increase in the reduction targets of cod (so2) is associated with a 0.023 (0.016) standard deviation decrease in the innovation index. we controlled carefully for various potential confounders, and the results were supported by robustness and falsification checks. there exists an evident heterogeneity effect across regions and industries with different pollution intensities. the channel analysis shows that stricter environmental regulation also accounts for a sharp decline in labor demand, firm entry, and inbound foreign direct investment. our findings are also robust to alternative measures for innovation and environmental regulation. 18. title: environmental regulation and innovation: evidence from china authors: yantuan yu, ning zhang abstract: the relevance of analyzing effects of environmental regulation on innovation cannot be overemphasized. in this paper, we first develop a theoretical model to predict how command-and-control environmental regulation affects innovation, and then we derive its channels. using the difference-in-difference-in-differences strategy and a comprehensive dataset at city-industry-year level of manufacturing sectors in china, we found that the more stringent environmental regulations that are faced by cities, measured by the reduction targets of chemical oxygen demand (cod) and sulfur dioxide (so2) during the eleventh five-year plan, are negatively associated with innovation. thus, the evidence contradicts the porter hypothesis. on average, a one standard deviation increase in the reduction targets of cod (so2) is associated with a 0.023 (0.016) standard deviation decrease in the innovation index. we controlled carefully for various potential confounders, and the results were supported by robustness and falsification checks. there exists an evident heterogeneity effect across regions and industries with different pollution intensities. the channel analysis shows that stricter environmental regulation also accounts for a sharp decline in labor demand, firm entry, and inbound foreign direct investment. our findings are also robust to alternative measures for innovation and environmental regulation. 19. title: adaptive capacity within tropical marine protected areas � differences between men- and women-headed households authors: felicity pike, narriman s. jiddawi, maricela de la torre-castro abstract: households within tropical coastal communities face a multitude of stressors related to environmental, social and economic change. to minimise negative impacts on households, a priority is to understand and if possible build adaptive capacity to enable adjustment to both extant, and anticipated stressors. adaptive capacity may not be equally distributed across households due to social differences and inequalities, including gender. in this study we sought to understand whether the factors underlying adaptive capacity differ between men- and women-headed households across three marine protected areas (mpas) in zanzibar, tanzania. adaptive capacity was significantly higher in men-headed households compared to women-headed households between different mpas as a whole, however significant differences were not found for men and women-headed households within the mpas. the factors underlying adaptive capacity were investigated through boosted regression trees, a relatively novel approach within the field, and found to be similar between men and women counterparts. these factors were agency, material conditions, low ecosystem dependence, education, occupational multiplicity and needs satisfaction (i.e. a poverty indicator) which was singularly important in women-headed households. while the factors themselves were similar in men and women�headed households, gendered differences were found regarding differing levels in the identified factors. accordingly, the processes that underly the differences found should be addressed within initiatives seeking to understand and build adaptive capacity. 20. title: climate discourses as barriers to rights-based adaptive social protection: how historical politics shape ethiopia�s climate-smart safety net authors: janna tenzing, declan conway abstract: a rights-based approach to �adaptive social protection� holds promise as a policy measure to address structural dimensions of vulnerability to climate change such as inequality and marginalisation, yet it has been failing to gain traction against production and growth-oriented interventions. through the lens of ethiopia�s flagship productive safety net programme (psnp), we trace the role of climate discourses in impeding progress towards socially transformative outcomes, despite the importance of social protection for building resilience. we argue that intertwining narratives of moral leadership and green growth associated with ethiopia�s national climate strategy shape how the psnp is rendered �climate-smart�. these narratives, however, are embedded within politics that have historically underpinned the country�s drive for modernisation and growth-oriented policies, particularly in dealing with food insecurity. like pre-existing narratives on development and the environment, they rationalise the presence of a strong central state and its control over natural resources and rural livelihoods. the psnp is thus conditioned to favour technocratic, productivist approaches to adapting to climate change that may help reproduce, rather than challenge the entrenched politics at the root of vulnerability. ultimately, this case study demonstrates how climate discourses risk diluting core rights-based dimensions of social protection, contradicting efforts to address the structural dimensions of vulnerability to climate change. 21. title: greenhouse gas mitigation co-benefits across the global agricultural development programs authors: arun khatri-chhetri, ciniro costa junior, eva wollenberg abstract: global agricultural development programs aim to support smallholder farmers and farming communities by strengthening sustainable and resilient food production systems � which can also promote climate change mitigation as a co-benefit by reducing the emissions and enhancing removals of greenhouse gases (ghg). this study presents estimated ghg emissions reductions of almost 100 agricultural development projects over 51 low- and middle-income countries supported by the international fund for agriculture development (ifad), usaid-feed the future (ftf) initiative, and foreign, commonwealth and development office (fcdo, previously dfid). together, these projects promoted a net ghg emissions reduction of 6.5 mtco2e per year. the forest management and promotion of improved agroforestry systems in the project areas contributed the most to the total mitigation co-benefits of the investment portfolios (<"3.9 mtco2e/y). improved crop management with minimum tillage practices, residue incorporation, water management in paddy rice, and the use of organic fertilizers also made a large contribution to the ghg emissions reduction (<"1.5 mtco2e/y). grass and pasture land management across the selected projects account for a net emission reduction of 0.2 mtco2e/y. the implementation of improved agricultural practices in combination proves more effective for improving productivity and generating mitigation co-benefits than used in isolation. however, the aggregate impacts of soil organic carbon (soc) sequestration should be interpreted carefully, which quickly can be lost quick. the interventions promoted by the global agricultural development programs have shown immense potential in reducing net ghg emissions or emission intensity in agriculture and allied sectors. for moving forward to achieve the net-zero and 1.5 �c goals including food security, the global agriculture development programs need to prioritize working on agriculture policy development and implementation so that agriculture expansion does not continue to drive land-use change. this needs to move from the traditional agriculture development programs to transformational changes. 22. title: hazardous waste from the global shipbreaking industry: historical inventory and future pathways authors: lin lin, kuishuang feng, peng wang, zheng wan, ... jiashuo li abstract: shipbreaking activities release hazardous wastes (namely, oil, asbestos, other landfillable wastes, and incinerable wastes) that harm both workers' health and the environment. however, an accurate and detailed emission inventory to support policy design of the greening reform remains lacking. by developing a framework that combines dynamic material flow model, global change assessment model and scenario analysis, this study carries out historical analysis and future projection of global ship scrap and pollutant emissions, based on ship scrap datasets. our results show that shipbreaking sites have gradually shifted from more developed regions such as taiwan, the european union (eu), japan, and russia to the three less developed southern asian countries, bangladesh, india, and pakistan, in the past four decades. waste emissions in these three countries have increased significantly by 6.5 times between 1990 and 2019. although the volume of scrapped ships is expected to reach 75�95 million gross tons per year by 2050, the cumulative waste emissions from 2020 to 2050 will be reduced by 92% and 79% under the eu convention and the hong kong convention scenario, respectively. lastly, policy implications such as how to mitigate the adverse impact of shipbreaking activities after the international conventions enter into force are comprehensively discussed. 23. title: integrated multi-scalar analysis of vulnerability to environmental hazards: assessing extreme flooding in western amazonia authors: jennifer c. langill, christian abizaid, yoshito takasaki, oliver t. coomes abstract: environmental change is significantly altering hydrological systems worldwide, with substantial impacts for the people who live on floodplains and depend on rivers for their livelihoods and lifeways. amazonia is a region significantly affected by these changes, particularly more severe flooding. this paper proposes a multi-scalar approach to vulnerability, applying it empirically to the analysis of household vulnerability to the 2011 flood�the second largest flood event along the ucayali river in 30 years�in terms of exposure, impacts, and responses. locally relevant indicators for assets, social identity, and social networks at the community and household levels are used to examine their role in shaping flood vulnerability, the interplay of community-level and household-level factors, and differential vulnerability across exposure, impacts, and responses to the same hazard event. we find that the most common impacts of severe flooding in rural amazonia are on agriculture and that fishing is the dominant response strategy. this study suggests that covariate shocks, like floods, can have distinct idiosyncratic impacts and responses among households. we demonstrate that more integrated approaches to vulnerability analysis offer potential for better understanding differential vulnerabilities within populations as well as for drawing comparisons across hazard events and different settings. 24. title: scaling smallholder tree cover restoration across the tropics authors: priya shyamsundar, francois cohen, timothy m. boucher, timm kroeger, ... xiaoquan x. zhang abstract: restoring tree cover in tropical countries has the potential to benefit millions of smallholders through improvements in income and environmental services. however, despite their dominant landholding shares in many countries, smallholders� role in restoration has not been addressed in prior global or pan-tropical restoration studies. we fill this lacuna by using global spatial data on trees and people, national indicators of enabling conditions, and micro-level expert information. we find that by 2050, low-cost restoration is feasible within 280, 200, and 60 million hectares of tropical croplands, pasturelands, and degraded forestlands, respectively. such restoration could affect 210 million people in croplands, 59 million people in pasturelands and 22 million people in degraded forestlands. this predominance of low-cost restoration opportunity in populated agricultural lands has not been revealed by prior analyses of tree cover restoration potential. in countries with low-cost tropical restoration potential, smallholdings comprise a significant proportion of agricultural lands in asia (<"76 %) and africa (<"60 %) but not the americas (<"3%). thus, while the americas account for approximately half of 21st century tropical deforestation, smallholder-based reforestation may play a larger role in efforts to reverse recent forest loss in asia and africa than in the americas. furthermore, our analyses show that countries with low-cost restoration potential largely lack policy commitments or smallholder supportive institutional and market conditions. discussions among practitioners and researchers suggest that four principles � partnering with farmers and prioritizing their preferences, reducing uncertainty, strengthening markets, and mobilizing innovative financing � can help scale smallholder-driven restoration in the face of these challenges. 25. title: advising national climate policy makers: a longitudinal analysis of the uk climate change committee authors: harriet dudley, andrew jordan, irene lorenzoni abstract: despite the recent proliferation of national climate change advisory bodies, very little is known about what advice they provide, to whom, and when. to address these gaps in the literature, this article systematically analyses all 700 of the recommendations made by the uk climate change committee (ccc) in the period 2009�20. the ccc is one of the oldest climate change advisory bodies of its kind in the world and its design has been widely emulated by other countries. for the first time, this article documents how the ccc�s mitigation and adaptation recommendations have changed over time with respect to their addressee, sectoral focus and policy targets. it reveals that they became: more numerous per year; more cross-sectoral in their nature; clearer in targeting a specific addressee; and more focused in referring to specific policy targets. by drawing on fischer�s synthesis of policy evaluation to derive a measure of policy ambition, it also reveals that despite many of its recommendations being repeated year after year, the ccc has become more willing to challenge the policy status quo. it concludes by identifying future research needs in this important and fast-moving area of climate governance, notably understanding the conditions in which the recommendations of advisory bodies (do not) impact national policy. 26. title: intra-seasonal rainfall and piped water revenue variability in rural africa authors: andrew armstrong, ellen dyer, johanna koehler, rob hope abstract: rainfall patterns influence water usage and revenue from user payments in rural africa. we explore these dynamics by examining monthly rainfall against 4,888 records of rural piped water revenue in ghana, rwanda, and uganda and quantifying revenue changes over 635 transitions between dry and wet seasons. results show operators experience revenue variability at regional and intra-seasonal scales. revenues fall by an average of 30 percent during the wettest months of the year in climate regimes with consistent wet season rainfall. however, seasonally stable revenues are observed in areas where consecutive dry days are common during the wet season, potentially reflecting a dependency on reliable services. we also find changes in tariff level, waterpoint connection type, and payment approach do not consistently prevent or increase seasonal revenue variability. local revenue generation underpins delivery of drinking water services. where rainfall patterns remain consistent, piped water operators can expect to encounter seasonal revenue reductions regardless of whether services are provided on or off premises and of how services are paid for. revenue projections that assume consistent volumetric demand year-round may lead to shortfalls that threaten sustainability and undermine the case for future investment. intra-seasonal rainfall analysis can enhance rural piped water revenue planning by offering localised insight into demand dynamics and revealing where climate variability may increase dependency on reliable services. 27. title: mapping public appraisals of carbon dioxide removal authors: rob bellamy abstract: efforts to deliver on net zero emissions targets are set to rely on carbon dioxide removal (cdr) methods. democratic, trustworthy and socially intelligent research, development, demonstration and deployment of cdr methods in aid of net zero will be highly dependent on how different publics evaluate them, and ultimately which groups support or oppose them. this paper develops a novel, nationally representative method for the multi-criteria appraisal of five policy relevant cdr methods � plus an option not to pursue cdr at all � by members of the british public (n = 2,111). the results show that the public supports the inclusion of cdr in uk climate policy. cdr methods often characterised as �natural� or �nature-based� are appraised more highly than �technological� ones, in the descending order: habitat restoration, afforestation, wood in construction, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and direct air carbon capture and storage. yet, there is no significant disagreement in the appraisal of technological methods and they therefore may be less polarizing, suggesting that popular preconceptions of what is natural � and therefore more attractive � may be holding them back. cdr methods being mainly developed by public sector and non-governmental organisations are also appraised more highly than those being developed by private interests. regional differences in option appraisal reveal where particular cdr methods are more or less likely to be supported or opposed; stressing the importance of matching physical requirements for cdr with appropriate social contexts. demographic and socio-economic analyses show that people who appraise cdr methods most highly tend to be older respondents, male, or of a higher social grade. finally, those with hierarchical worldviews and who voted �leave� in the uk�s referendum on eu membership are less supportive of cdr than those with egalitarian worldviews and who voted �remain�. 28. title: can we learn from the past? towards better analogies and historical inference in society-environmental change research authors: amit tubi, lee mordechai, eran feitelson, paul kay, dan tamir abstract: in light of the challenges posed by contemporary environmental changes, interest in past environmental impacts and societies� responses to them is burgeoning. the main strength of such research lies in its ability to analyze completed society-environment interactions. scholars have argued that such analyses can improve our understanding of present challenges and offer useful lessons to guide adaptation responses. yet despite considerable differences between past and present societies, our inherently limited knowledge of the past and our changing understanding of it, much of this research uses historical antecedents uncritically, assuming that past societal impacts and responses are directly analogous to contemporary ones. we argue that this approach is unsound both methodologically and theoretically, thus drawing insights that might offer an erroneous course of action. 29. title: conservation science and policy should care about violent extremism authors: simon lhoest, julie linchant, meredith l. gore, c�dric vermeulen #%-./09<>?@bk��̶̽̽��rj]oa4ohj�5�ojqj^jo(h�h�5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h�n�5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#h�h�5�cjojqj^jajh�h�h�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajh�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�h�5�cjojqj^jaj?@a��" � �gop�� k##�#��gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gd�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4��! 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!�"�#�$�&�,�-�`�a�i�u�v��ָ��sf[m��;�ָ"h�r�h�e=5�ojqj\�^jajh�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh)q{5�ojqj^jh)q{5�ojqj^jo(h�^�h�e=ojqj^jo(h�)�h�^�ojqj^jo(h�)�h�)�ojqj^jh�)�h�e=ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�)�h�)�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jv��%�&��_�`�a�b�c�e��pb�r�k��?��h�)�h�e=ojqjo(h�)�h�)�h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(hmw�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�)�h�)�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�e=5�ojqj^jh)q{5�ojqj^jh)q{5�ojqj^jo(h�)�5�ojqj^jh�)�ojqj^jh�)�h�)�ojqj^jh�)�h�e=ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^je�k�l�� [\]^`acdfgjk��ָ��skgkgkgkgshssjhssuhj<hj<5�ojqjo(h�)�h�e=ojqjo(h�)�h�)�ojqj^jh�)�h�e=ojqj^jo(h$?�h�e=5�ojqj^juh$?�h�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�r�h�e=5�ojqj^jh�)�h�)�5�ojqj^jh�e=5�ojqj^jo(h�z2h�e=5�ojqj^jabstract: protected areas are increasingly prone to violent extremism spillover, with dramatic consequences for both local people and wildlife populations. due to the influence of violent extremist groups, science and policy generally fade away. we outline the case of the w-arly-pendjari complex of protected areas in west africa (burkina faso, benin, and niger), 62% of which is currently under the control of violent extremist groups. the last large population of west african elephants may soon disappear if no action is taken. we discuss the roles of conservation science and policy in protected areas under violent extremism spillover, namely (i) maintaining and reinforcing international support, (ii) authentically engaging local communities in conservation and management strategies, and (iii) planning long-term conservation and security strategies. `bcefhijk��gd)w�gd�01�82p��. ��a!�"�#��$��%��s��s2�� 0@p`p��2(�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p��8x�v~�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@pj_hmh nhsh thj`��jck�e$1$a$ cjkh_hajmh nhsh th$a ��$؞��k=�w[sobi��bnf�h�&��ŝ�]�6��ҩ��n=��in��a7��qb&>!"�h [�� lx�z)��w�v�og�%�ţ|8mă#�/��8��'��=��q�u*��c�`c�w{�d6��/�[��yl��%�� n� 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