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volume 112, issue 11, november 2022
1. title: the end of economic growth? unintended consequences of a declining population
authors: jones, charles i
abstract: in many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. these models typically assume either a constant or growing population. however, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. it is a distinct possibility that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. in standard models, this has profound implications: rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes. moreover, even the optimal allocation can get trapped in this outcome if there are delays in implementing optimal policy.
2. title: persistent polarizing effects of persuasion: experimental evidence from turkey
authors: baysan, ceren
abstract: i evaluate randomly varied neighborhood exposure to information campaigns regarding either executive performance, or increases in executive power, prior to a turkish referendum on weakening checks and balances on the executive. the campaigns increased voter polarization over the referendum, and subsequently changed party affiliation in national and local elections over the next two years, leading to partisan polarization. my results suggest that, when voters disagree on whether increasing executive power is a good policy, more information can increase voter polarization. finally, i conclude that because potential polarization is often ignored, the impact of information campaigns on civil society is underestimated.
3. title: job search and hiring with limited information about workseekers' skills
authors: carranza, eliana; garlick, robert; orkin, kate; rankin, neil
abstract: we assess south african workseekers' skills and disseminate the assessment results to explore how limited information affects firm and workseeker behavior. giving workseekers assessment results that they can credibly share with firms increases workseekers' employment and earnings and better aligns their skills, beliefs and search strategies. giving workseekers assessment results that they cannot easily share with firms has similar effects on beliefs and search, but smaller effects on employment and earnings. giving assessment results only to firms shifts interview decisions. these findings show that getting credible skill information to the right agents can improve outcomes in the labor market.
4. title: evaluating deliberative competence: a simple method with an application to financial choice
authors: ambuehl, sandro; bernheim, b. douglas; lusardi, annamaria
abstract: we examine methods for evaluating interventions designed to improve decision-making quality when people misunderstand the consequences of their choices. in an experiment involving financial education, conventional outcome metrics (financial literacy and directional behavioral responses) imply that two interventions are equally beneficial even though only one reduces the average severity of errors. we trace these failures to violations of the assumptions embedded in the conventional metrics. we propose a simple, intuitive, and broadly applicable outcome metric that properly differentiates between the interventions, and is robustly interpretable as a measure of welfare loss from misunderstanding consequences even when additional biases distort choices.
5. title: vulnerability and clientelism
authors: bobonis, gustavo j.; gertler, paul j.; gonzalez-navarro, marco; nichter, simeon
abstract: this study argues that economic vulnerability causes citizens to participate in clientelism, a phenomenon with various pernicious consequences. to examine how reduced vulnerability affects citizens' participation in clientelism, we employ two exogenous shocks to vulnerability. first, we designed a randomized control trial to reduce household vulnerability: our development intervention constructed residential water cisterns in drought-prone areas of brazil. second, we exploit rainfall shocks. we find that reducing vulnerability significantly decreases requests for private goods from politicians, especially among citizens likely to be in clientelist relationships. moreover, reducing vulnerability decreases votes for incumbent mayors, who typically have more resources for clientelism.
6. title: social media and mental health
authors: braghieri, luca; levy, ro'ee; makarin, alexey
abstract: we provide quasi-experimental estimates of the impact of social media on mental health by leveraging a unique natural experiment: the staggered introduction of facebook across us colleges. our analysis couples data on student mental health around the years of facebook's expansion with a generalized difference-in-differences empirical strategy. we find that the rollout of facebook at a college had a negative impact on student mental health. it also increased the likelihood with which students reported experiencing impairments to academic performance due to poor mental health. additional evidence on mechanisms suggests the results are due to facebook fostering unfavorable social comparisons.
7. title: the psychosocial value of employment: evidence from a refugee camp
authors: hussam, reshmaan; kelley, erin m.; lane, gregory; zahra, fatima.
abstract: employment may be important to well-being for reasons beyond its role as an income source. this paper presents a causal estimate of the psychosocial value of employment in refugee camps in bangladesh. we involve 745 individuals in a field experiment with three arms: a control arm, a weekly cash arm, and an employment arm of equal value. employment raises psychosocial well-being substantially more than cash alone, and 66 percent of the employed are willing to forgo cash payments to continue working temporarily for free. despite material poverty, those in our context both experience and recognize a nonmonetary, psychosocial value to employment.
8. title: human capital depreciation and returns to experience
authors: dinerstein, michael; megalokonomou, rigissa; yannelis, constantine
abstract: human capital can depreciate if skills are unused. but estimating human capital depreciation is challenging, as worker skills are difficult to measure and less productive workers are more likely to spend time in nonemployment. we overcome these challenges with new administrative data on teachers' assignments and their students' outcomes, and quasi-random variation from the teacher assignment process in greece. we find significant losses to output, as a one-year increase in time without formal employment lowers students' test scores by 0.05 standard deviations. using a simple production model, we estimate a skill depreciation rate of 4.3 percent and experience returns of 6.8 percent.
9. title: immigration and spatial equilibrium: the role of expenditures in the country of origin
authors: albert, christoph; monras, joan
abstract: we document that international migrants concentrate more in expensive cities�the more so, the lower the prices in their origin countries are�and consume less locally than comparable natives. we rationalize this empirical evidence by introducing a quantitative spatial equilibrium model, in which a part of immigrants' income goes toward consumption in their origin countries. using counter-factual simulations, we show that, due to this novel consumption channel, immigrants move economic activity toward expensive, high-productivity locations. this leads to a more efficient spatial allocation of labor and, as a result, increases the aggregate output and welfare of natives.
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