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��ࡱ�>�� r��bjbj`.`.2�d�gd�g{� ��66��8��,�/q�:::�p�p�p�p�p�p�p$s��uf�p9�:::::�p��4�p:j��p:�p�� (vp�p0/qv�:v�/v� ml:::::::�p�p:::/q::::��v:::::::::6b�: world development volume 168, issue 8, august 2023 1. title: the scientific revolution and its implications for long-run economic development authors: sibylle lehmann-hasemeyer, klaus prettner, paul tscheuschner abstract: we analyze the role of the scientific revolution in the takeoff to sustained long-run economic development. basic scientific knowledge is a necessary input in the production of applied knowledge, which, in turn, fuels productivity growth and leads to rising incomes. subsequently, rising incomes instigate a fertility transition and foster education investments. together, the increasing stocks of basic scientific knowledge and human capital, and the concomitant reduction in fertility enable economic development. in regions where scientific inquiry is severely constrained�for example, due to religious reasons or due to oppressive rulers�the takeoff is delayed or may not occur at all. this shows the importance of investing in basic scientific inquiry when trying to achieve long-run economic prosperity. our framework could contribute to the understanding of why sustained economic development emerged first in europe and not in technologically more advanced china. 2. title: technological trajectories as an outcome of the structure-agency interplay at the national level: insights from emerging varieties of ai authors: cristian gherhes, zhen yu, tim vorley, lan xue abstract: development studies have paid less attention to the role of technological innovations and we are yet to understand how, and more importantly why, technological trajectories differ across countries. this gap becomes sharper as emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (ai) are becoming increasingly important in addressing many world development challenges. drawing on insights from institutional work literature, this paper develops a structure-agency interplay framework to unravel the various trajectories of emerging technologies at the national level and examines the development and diffusion of ai in canada and china. the findings show that canada�s stable institutional environment, reinforced through institutional work by various actors, generated a national ai trajectory driven by technology development through a strong focus on scientific research and ethics, with slower organic commercialisation of ai. in china, a dynamic and loose institutional structure characterised by lax regulations, low entry barriers, and high openness to novelties has resulted in a market-driven ai trajectory focused on technology commercialisation, with domestic digital giants and the government as dominant players. national-level dynamics in formal institutions, informal institutions, technologies, and actor strategies determine heterogeneous approaches to technology development and diffusion, giving rise to varieties of technological trajectories. the levels of institutionalisation exert different forces and create different spaces for institutional work across different geographical contexts. 3. title: impact of the covid-19 crisis on india�s rural youth: evidence from a panel survey and an experiment authors: bhaskar chakravorty, apurav yash bhatiya, cl�ment imbert, maximilian lohnert, ... roland rathelot abstract: this paper presents evidence on the short and long-term impact of the covid-19 crisis on india�s rural youth. we interviewed about 2,000 vocational trainees from bihar and jharkhand three times after the first national lockdown in 2020, between june 2020 and december 2021. we find that a third of respondents who were in salaried jobs pre-lockdown lost their jobs, and half of those who worked out of state returned home shortly after the lockdown. we report a stark difference between men and women: while many male workers took up informal employment, most female workers dropped out of the labour force. in the second part of the paper, we use a randomised experiment to document the effects of a government-supported digital platform designed to provide jobs to low-skilled workers. the platform turned out to be difficult to use and publicised only few job ads. we find no effect on job search intensity or employment. our findings suggest that bridging the gap between rural young workers and urban formal labour markets requires more active and targeted policy interventions, especially for female workers. 4. title: does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis? authors: jose e. gomez-gonzalez, jorge m. uribe, oscar m. valencia abstract: fiscal crises are costly but are not rare. it is crucial to prioritize preventing such crises. while several studies have explored the impact of macroeconomic variables and international factors on fiscal outcomes, little attention has been given to the role of a country�s productive structure sophistication. does a country�s ability to export diversified and less ubiquitous goods significantly reduce the likelihood of a fiscal crisis? to answer this question, we use hazard duration analysis and a comprehensive dataset of 172 countries (spanning over 200 fiscal crisis episodes) between 1995 and 2020. we show that economic complexity has a significant impact on a country�s likelihood of experiencing a fiscal crisis. a one-point increase in the economic complexity index reduces the probability of a fiscal crisis by half. this effect is robust across low-income, emerging, and advanced economies. institutional factors also play an essential role in reducing the risk of a fiscal crisis, whereas variables such as debt-to-output ratio, real rate of growth, inflation, terms of trade, and fiscal balance have little to no impact. our results indicate that a country�s development strategy should prioritize increasing economic complexity to reduce fiscal vulnerability. by reducing the risk of fiscal crises, economic complexity contributes to macroeconomic stability, which is a fundamental condition for economic development. 5. title: do chinese firms in africa pay lower wages? a comparative analysis of manufacturing and construction firms in angola and ethiopia authors: carlos oya, florian schaefer abstract: this paper analyses wage differences between chinese and non-chinese firms in angola and ethiopia. the growing engagement of chinese firms in sub-saharan africa has generated debates about the working conditions offered to african workers. however, the evidence for many of the claims made about wages in chinese firms operating in sub-saharan africa is unconvincing. in this paper the authors identify problems with the existing literature and provide new comparative evidence on wages in chinese, other foreign and domestic firms in angola and ethiopia. drawing on over 1,400 worker-level interviews the authors find that chinese firms do not consistently pay less than comparable firms. using a multi-scalar labour regime framework the authors show that a combination individual worker characteristics, sector specificities, and firm attributes are necessary to explain variations in wages in both countries. the national origin of firms by itself cannot explain the observed differences in wages. 6. title: livelihood investments as incentives for community forestry in africa authors: susan charnley abstract: this study examines community incentives to participate in donor-sponsored community forestry initiatives using the case of a multi-year biodiversity conservation and sustainable livelihood project in west africa sponsored by the u.s. agency for international development. in this project, communities established community forests and prohibited most extractive uses to promote forest biodiversity conservation, receiving livelihood and water infrastructure investments in return. i assess whether livelihood investments are an effective incentive-based conservation strategy for community forestry initiatives, and in what context; and, once external project support ends, whether community forestry based on this incentive strategy persists. i examined community forestry in 27 communities across three study areas in guinea and sierra leone between 2012 and 2015, when the project ended, and conducted a follow-up assessment in 2018 to see whether community forestry persisted post-project. i found that, despite mixed benefits from livelihood activities, livelihood investments were effective incentives for community forestry during the project�s lifetime. most successful were village savings and loan associations and tree nurseries and plantations (coffee, cacao, oil palm, rubber), both of which provided tangible economic benefits to participating households. intrinsic incentives associated with the ecosystem services community forests provide were also important. all but one community forest persisted 2.5 years post-project, though management byelaws had informally changed in many community forests to allow more extractive uses. these changes were least evident in the study area where benefits from livelihood investments were greatest and endured. this study demonstrates that livelihood investments can be effective in-kind incentives for community forestry in africa, whether as central or ancillary incentives, but more effort is needed to design livelihood investments that deliver their expected benefits. context also matters; there is a need to better understand the relationship between incentive types, community forestry model, and the social-ecological conditions in which community forestry occurs. 7. title: shocks and mental health: panel data evidence from south africa authors: yonas alem, gidisa lachisa tato abstract: households in developing countries are subject to considerable risk and shocks, but most can�t deal with them using formal credit and insurance mechanisms. we use five rounds of the south african nids panel data and investigate the links between shocks and mental health as measured by the center for epidemiological studies - depression scale (ces-d). we find that experiencing idiosyncratic shocks, more importantly, the death of a family member is significantly associated with poor mental health. the magnitude increases by almost twofold when death happens unexpectedly, i.e., due to an accident or violence, and increases by 35% when the deceased is a close family member of the respondent. we argue that two plausible mechanisms could explain the links between the death of a household member and mental health - bereavement and loss of income. our results offer suggestive evidence of the large scope for improving welfare further through social support and insurance mechanisms. the results also imply the importance of expanding psychiatric and therapeutic care in africa, which currently appears to be at the lowest level compared to the rest of the world. 8. title: resilience, endogenous policy responses to covid-19, and their impacts on farm performance authors: tharcisse guedegbe, adesoji adelaja, justin george abstract: policy measures aimed at containing the spread of the covid-19 pandemic had unintended consequences on economic activities globally. in this study, we isolate and investigate the short-term partial impacts of six such measures on the farm and nonfarm incomes of agricultural households and examine the related resilience factors. using nigeria as a case study, we find that the covid containment measures had mixed effects on farm and non-farm incomes in the short run. these varying effects are due to households� resilience and vulnerability factors, including land size, wealth, income diversification, involvement in processing activities, and reliance on hired labor. our findings highlight the need for more targeted health crisis containment measures which consider the uniqueness, diversity, and regional heterogeneity of agriculture, especially the potential implications for farm viability. 9. title: decomposing the impacts of an agricultural value chain development project by ethnicity and gender in nepal authors: tisorn songsermsawas, kashi kafle, paul winters abstract: this paper estimates the impact of an inclusive agricultural value chain development project on agricultural productivity and decomposes the impact by gender and ethnicity of producers. the intervention sought to alleviate poverty among small-scale producers by increasing agricultural productivity and lowering transaction costs. it also specifically targeted minority and female producers to ensure inclusivity. we use primary survey data from over 2,500 households in rural nepal. we estimate the impact on agricultural productivity by employing a treatment effect estimator, and decompose it by gender and ethnicity using the kitagawa-oaxaca-blinder (kob) decomposition method. we find that the project has a positive impact on agricultural productivity, but the impact is higher for non-minority and male-headed households than for minority and female-headed households, respectively. the ethnicity productivity gap is smaller in the treatment group than in comparison group. even though male-headed households have consistently higher productivity, the gender gap in agricultural productivity is smaller in the treatment group compared to the comparison group. kob decomposition shows that the ethnicity- and gender- specific differential impacts are mainly driven by differential endowment effects, primarily land and labor endowments. results suggest that the project reduced the ethnicity- and gender-specific productivity gaps, although it did not eliminate them entirely. these findings highlight the need for targeted support to vulnerable producers including ethnic minority and female producers. specifically targeted land tenure security programs can ensure that vulnerable producers can harness benefits in a manner which could help narrow productivity differences. 10. title: does environmental regulation spur innovation? quasi-natural experiment in china authors: ming zhang, yingxue zhao abstract: the relationship between stringent environmental regulation and the innovation capability of enterprises has been controversial. treating the target-based sulfur dioxide emissions control policy implemented for the two control zones after 2000 as a quasi-natural experiment, we exploit the difference-in-difference approach to investigate the causal relationship between stringent environmental regulation and technological innovation using the disaggregated chinese manufacturing firm-level data between 1998 and 2007. our estimation results indicate that the target-based environmental policy effectively limits the sulfur dioxide emissions of regulated enterprises and facilitates their technological innovation capability. the conclusion that strengthening environmental regulation has contributed to the technological innovation capability of enterprises is still robust after ruling out the effect of china�s integration into the world trade organization. however, enterprises with different characteristics might respond heterogeneously to strict environmental regulation. the estimation results of the difference-in-difference-in-difference confirm that heavily polluting enterprises and those exposed to greater environmental protection pressure have experienced more technological progress. further analyses demonstrate that enterprises� technological innovation triggered by strict environmental regulation dramatically reduces their non-clean energy consumption and improves their environmental performance. our research sheds light on the causal relationship between environmental regulation and technological innovation and provides crucial references for governments within developing economies to design scientific environmental policies aimed at searching for win�win solutions for economic growth and eco-environmental protection. 11. title: post-conflict restitution of customary land: guidelines and trajectories of change authors: sandra f. joireman, rosine tchatchoua-djomo abstract: since the 1990s a body of soft international law and public policy has developed around property restitution after conflict. the pinheiro principles and the voluntary guidelines for the responsible governance of tenure of land, fisheries and forests (vggt) both proffer remedies for property losses experienced due to violent conflict and forced displacement. these international guidelines for remediating harm caused by property loss or damage in conflict at best only partially address losses in customary tenure systems. this article has two goals: first, to delineate where the international guidelines are out of step with the nature of customary tenure; and second, to identify trajectories of change for customary land tenure systems after violent conflict. these two issues are fundamentally linked. the characteristics of post-conflict environments contested authority structures, displaced and returning populations, and contentious land relations make customary land vulnerable to expropriation and elevate the threat of asset loss for customary rights holders. this challenges the assumption that people can always return to rural agricultural livelihoods when displaced from customary land; that is only true if those customary land systems function the way they did before the violence. this article draws on a socio-legal analysis of secondary sources and qualitative data gathered by the authors through focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews in rural communities in burundi, liberia, and uganda over the past decade. because customary land tenure systems are prevalent over much of the territory currently affected by violent conflict in africa, the middle east, and central asia, the absence of specific restitution policies for customary tenure systems is a significant gap in international public policy. 12. title: life expectancy across countries: convergence, divergence and fluctuations authors: anna-maria aksan, shankha chakraborty abstract: we document the evolution of life expectancies around the world during using graphical analysis, statistical decomposition of survival gains by age-groups and by measuring the contribution of each age-group to changes in the global and regional distributions of life expectancy at birth. we emphasize three findings. first, enormous gains in early-life survival have led to unconditional convergence in life expectancy at birth across countries while late-life longevity has diverged. gains have been higher for females than males. secondly, global and regional survival gains among the elderly, though smaller than among the young, have strongly influenced changes in country rankings of life expectancy at birth with the exception of sub-saharan africa. country rankings for late-life survival have changed relatively more than for younger ages. third, the divergence in survival gains among the elderly is related to disparities in healthcare access, driven in part by within- and between-country income inequality. while providing fresh insight into the uneven pace of health changes during the past half century, these results also highlight how policy can address the socio-economic and demographic consequences of aging. 13. title: citizens� understanding of the social contract: lessons from tunisia authors: dina bishara, michelle jurkovich, chantal berman abstract: how do citizens understand state obligation in the provision of social welfare in the middle east and north africa (mena)? studies of citizen attitudes towards social welfare have focused almost exclusively on countries in the global north, while scholarship on the social contract in the mena region has approached the question from a top-down perspective, often viewing social welfare provision as a tool of authoritarian survival. this article examines tunisians� perceptions of state obligation in providing two essential socioeconomic needs�food and healthcare. we engage the possibility that two theoretically important predictors of welfare support � namely, education and labor market status � may shape support for different socioeconomic provisions, differently. analyzing a nationally representative survey fielded in 2017, we find that tunisians are more likely to blame the state for lack of access to adequate healthcare than lack of access to adequate food. regression analyses show that education increases tunisians� propensity to blame the state for lack of healthcare but exerts no similar effect on their perceptions of state obligation towards ensuring access to adequate food. at the same time, labor market status significantly affects tunisians� propensity to blame the state for lack of food (with unemployed individuals and housewives expressing highest levels of blame) but exerts no effect on their perceptions of state obligation toward healthcare provision. we draw on interviews with tunisian economic and social rights advocates to contextualize and interpret these findings within a broader discussion of the social and political environment surrounding food and healthcare provision in tunisia. theoretically, our paper demonstrates the importance of disaggregating citizens� attitudes towards different forms of welfare provision, and challenges the predominant expectation in welfare opinion studies that the self-interest mechanism will drive support for state provision across diverse socioeconomic concerns. 14. title: crime, inequality and subsidized housing: evidence from south africa authors: roxana elena manea, patrizio piraino, martina viarengo abstract: we study the relationship between housing inequality and crime in south africa. we create a novel panel dataset combining information on crime at the police station level with census data. our analysis shows that housing inequality explains a significant share of the variation in both property and violent crimes, net of spillover effects, time and district fixed effects. an increase of roughly one standard deviation in housing inequality explains 10�12 percent of total crime increases. additionally, we analyze a prominent housing program for low-income south africans to show that policies that decrease inequality in housing conditions may also reduce crime. we suggest that these policies can help mitigate the societal and individual strains that are often correlated with criminal engagement. 15. title: learning together: experimental evidence on the impact of group-based nutrition interventions in rural bihar authors: kalyani raghunathan, neha kumar, shivani gupta, tarana chauhan, ... purnima menon abstract: india accounts for a large proportion of the global prevalence of maternal and child undernutrition, and recent trends have renewed the call for large-scale concerted efforts to improve outcomes. with their reach to millions of rural indian women, self-help groups (shgs) offer a possible solution. we provide evidence from a cluster-randomized controlled trial in the state of bihar of the impact of a health and nutrition intervention that provided behavior change communication to shg members and worked to strengthen utilization of services. over the course of 2.5 years, the intervention resulted in a 7% increase in the number of food groups consumed by children and a 30% increase in the proportion of women achieving minimum dietary diversity but had no impact on women�s body mass index or child underweight and wasting. both knowledge and adoption of key behaviors along the impact pathway improved as a result of the treatment. shgs certainly have the potential to effect social change and accelerate improvements in maternal and child health and nutrition outcomes, but in resource-constrained settings such as these, information-only interventions delivered through these platforms will likely have limited impact. 16. title: child health and the housing environment authors: caitlin brown, martin ravallion, dominique van de walle abstract: we propose and test an internationally-comparable country-level index of the adequacy of the housing environment for protecting children from ill-health. the housing environment for protection (hep) index combines seven easily-monitored indicators of housing conditions related to communications, density of occupants, toilet and handwashing facilities, the use of finished construction materials, and cooking facilities. in calibrating and validating the hep index, the paper uses infant mortality, the incidence of child illnesses and child stunting. we calculate the hep index for the 41 developing countries with complete recent data from the demographic and health surveys. we find that only 8% of households fully comply with all our identified housing conditions, though there is considerable variation across countries, with full compliance varying from virtually zero to almost 60% of households. a poor hep is found to be associated with significantly worse health outcomes among children. this finding is robust to adding controls for likely confounders such as income and poverty. our results suggest that reducing the incidence of ill-health among children is in part achieved by reducing income poverty, but also depends crucially on how much income gains tend to directly improve housing conditions. 17. title: gender imaginaries in energy transitions: how professionals construct and envision gender equity in energy access in the global south authors: cecilia alda-vidal, rihab khalid, chris foulds, sarah royston, mary greene abstract: the importance of gender is increasingly recognised in energy research, with growing awareness of the intersections of energy access and gender equity. yet, a major knowledge gap exists regarding the role of professional intermediaries and institutions in reproducing and/or challenging gendered forms of energy exclusion, especially in the global south. this paper addresses this gap by considering the gendered energy imaginaries of energy professionals in global south contexts. integrating literature on socio-technical imaginaries � which to date has been developed in predominantly global north contexts � with feminist accounts of gender, energy and development, this paper investigates gendered imaginaries of energy access among energy professionals across four global south contexts (india, pakistan, nigeria and ghana). the case-study approach involved thematic analysis of interviews with 86 energy professionals, and revealed a spectrum of gendered energy imaginaries with two archetypes at the extremes of the spectrum: (1) the gender-neutral grid imaginary (gngi); and, (2) the gender-aware decentralised development imaginary (gaddi). these two imaginaries are unpacked in terms of their underlying actors, practices, and outcomes. special attention is paid to how different constructions of the �end-user� within professional imaginaries work to perpetuate or alleviate forms of gendered exclusion. these visions propagate energy access outcomes by shaping women�s access to and use of technologies, decision-making, and employment in the energy sector. findings reveal that whilst the gaddi imaginary shows better considerations for gendered energy access, existing gendered imaginaries among professionals fall short across the spectrum in generating equitable outcomes. the paper concludes by providing specific recommendations for energy practice and policy dominating the energy transition landscape in the global south and reiterates the need to move beyond �gender-mainstreaming� towards intersectional conceptions of social equity and energy justice. this is vital to address the gaps in existing professional and institutional imaginaries that shape energy access outcomes. 18. title: aid effectiveness in sustainable development: a multidimensional approach authors: omar a. guerrero, daniele guariso, gonzalo casta�eda abstract: what is the impact of international aid? we answer this question by linking disaggregated aid-flows data to a large set of indicators classified into the sustainable development goals (sdgs). since such linkage is not perfect (due to the nature of the data), we deploy an artificial intelligence model of the causal process through which changes in aid flows contribute to the dynamics of individual indicators. the model accounts for salient features of real-world development such as multidimensionality, complex interconnections between indicators, heterogeneous aid-to-expenditure ratios, rationally-bounded bureaucracies, fungibility, and the temporal structure of contemporary aid flows across development dimensions. the model does not require cross-country pooled data, so we calibrate its parameters for each of the 146 aid-recipient countries in our sample, preserving important contextual information of each nation. by producing counterfactual simulations where aid is removed, we obtain nuanced estimates of the impact of international assistance during the first decade of the 21st century, at the level of each country, sdg, and indicator. we validate our results using a sector-specific study with similar�but more aggregate�findings. such a large and detailed picture of the multidimensional impact of aid has not been documented before. 19. title: the political economy of national development: a research agenda after neoliberal reform? authors: adnan naseemullah abstract: from the mid-1940s, strategies and policies of state-directed development empowered the state to transform a set of relationships among labor and domestic and international capital to reorder priorities of production and investment within national boundaries. associated theories of national development, including dependency theory, made critical interventions in how we understood states, markets and the international economy in the context of late development. from the early 1980s, however, domestic reformers and international institutions dismantled state-directed development in response to profound shocks to the international economy of the previous decade, through processes of neoliberal reform in most developing countries. with the demise of state-directed development, convergent understandings of the political economy of national development were repudiated; there is no consensus on the meaning of national development today. rather, three research agendas have arisen, 1) focusing on the provision of public and social goods to individuals and communities, 2) analyzing firm-level �upgrading� relationships both within and across borders, and 3) exploring the capacities of states to execute industrial policy or enhance their domestic governance. these three agendas highlight vital aspects of the dilemmas of development, but they do not provide an integrated perspective of the political economy of national development. this article proposes revisiting and updating cardoso and faletto�s �historical-structural analysis,� which can incorporate the interactions among domestic governments, firms and other economic actors, international agencies, multinationals and global structures and institutions. it updates this approach by exploring the ways in which neoliberal reform has disarticulated capital, labor and the state apparatus domestically, while incorporating institutional change to the structures of international trade and investment. revised historical-structural analysis can thus represent a crucial framework for understanding the possibilities of particular national growth models, and the barriers to these trajectories from domestic and international sources. 20. title: remittances and land change: a systematic review authors: elizabeth a. mack, laura aileen sauls, brad d. jokisch, kerstin nolte, ... geoffrey m. henebry abstract: remittances�funds sent by migrants to family and friends back home�are an important source of global monetary flows, and they have implications for the maintenance and transformation of land systems. a number of published reviews have synthesized work on a variety of aspects of remittances (e.g., rural livelihoods, disasters, and economic development). to our knowledge, there are no reviews of work investigating the linkages between remittances and land change, broadly understood. this knowledge gap is important to address because researchers have recognized that remittances flows are a mechanism that helps to explain how migration can affect land change. thus, understanding the specific roles remittances play in land system changes should help to clarify the multiple processes associated with migration and their independent and interactive effects. to address the state of knowledge about the connection between remittances and land systems, this paper conducts a systematic review. our review of 51 journal articles finds that the linkages uncovered were commonly subtle and/or indirect. very few studies looked at the direct connections between receipt of remittances and quantitative changes in land. most commonly, the relationship between remittances and land change was found to occur through pathways from labor migration to household income to agricultural development and productivity. we find four non-exclusive pathways through which households spend remittances with consequent changes to land systems: (1) agricultural crops and livestock, (2) agricultural labor and technologies, (3) land purchases, and (4) non-agricultural purchases and consumables. in the papers reviewed, these expenditures are linked to various land system change outcomes, including land use change, soil degradation, pasture degradation, afforestation/deforestation/degradation, agricultural intensification/extensification/diversification, and no impact. these findings suggest four avenues for future research. one avenue is the use of the theoretical lens of telecoupling to understand how remittances may produce wider-scale changes in land systems. a second avenue is further examination of the impacts of shocks and disturbances to remittance flows on land change both in migrant sending and in remittance receiving areas. a third avenue is scholarship that examines the extent that household uses of remittances have a �ripple effect� on land uses in nearby interlinked systems. a fourth avenue for future work is the use of spatially explicit modeling that leverages land cover and land use data based on imagery and other geospatial information. 21. title: the flag and the stick: aid suspensions, human rights, and the problem of the complicit public authors: niheer dasandi, lior erez abstract: foreign aid donors often use, or are expected to use, the threat of aid suspensions in response to human rights violations. the use of such conditionality seeks to pressure the �recipient� government into ending or preventing rights abuses. this article argues that this approach tacitly relies on the assumption that most citizens in the recipient country oppose their government�s rights violations. however, in recent years, and particularly linked to the rise of populism, there has been growing recognition of instances around the world in which significant parts of the public support government actions giving rise to human rights violations. drawing in particular on the example of donor responses to recent efforts to introduce repressive anti-homosexuality legislation in uganda, the article argues that such cases present donors with a dilemma that arises because the threat of aid suspensions serves two distinct but related purposes: an instrumental function (�the stick�), whereby the threat of withdrawing aid is used to pressure the �recipient� government into ending the rights violation; and an expressive function (�the flag�) that is often overlooked, whereby conditionality signals the donor government�s commitment to international human rights norms. while typically these two functions of aid conditionality reinforce one another, we show that when faced with a �complicit public�, the stick and flag come apart, generating the dilemma for donors. the threat of aid sanctions is likely to trigger a public backlash but refraining from effective criticism will undermine support for international human rights norms. based on this analysis, the article provides a framework for recognizing and evaluating potential responses to this dilemma that considers the salient political and ethical features of such contexts. in doing so, it demonstrates the importance of understanding the political ethics of aid suspensions and other donor responses to human rights violations. 22. title: displacement and return in the internet era: social media for monitoring migration decisions in northern syria authors: erin walk, kiran garimella, fotini christia abstract: according to unhcr reporting there are over 27 million refugees globally, many of whom are hosted in neighboring countries which struggle with bureaucracy and service provision to support them. with the onset of covid-19 in early 2020, gathering data on the location and conditions of these refugees has become increasingly difficult. using syria as a case study, where since 2011 80% of the population has been displaced in the civil war, this paper shows how the widespread use of social media could be used to monitor migration of refugees. using social media text and image data from three popular platforms (twitter, telegram, and facebook), and leveraging survey data as a source of ground truth on the presence of idps and returnees, it uses topic modeling and image analysis to find that areas without return have a higher prevalence of violence-related discourse and images while areas with return feature content related to services and the economy. building on these findings, the paper uses mixed effects models to show that these results hold pre- and post-return as well as when migration is quantified as monthly population flows. monitoring refugee return in war prone areas is a complex task and social media may provide researchers, aid groups, and policymakers with tools for assessing return in areas where survey or other data is unavailable or difficult to obtain. 23. title: the effects of refugees� camps on hosting areas: social conflicts and economic growth authors: nicola daniele coniglio, vitorocco peragine, davide vurchio abstract: in this paper we study the effects of the establishment of refugees� camps in africa on the occurrence of protests and social conflicts by using geo-referenced panel data (2000�2014). we use 50x50 km cells as units of analysis and match data on the frequency of protests, armed conflicts and other organized violence events (based on gdelt and ged databases) with information on the location of camps contained in the unhcr camp mapping database. by using a counterfactual empirical strategy, we find that refugee camps significantly increase the occurrence of protests only in the initial period (2 years) while no statistically significant effect is detected in subsequent years. we interpret these findings as the asynchronous effect of two shocks associated with the presence of refugee camps: a sudden population shock which initially increases social tensions with the host-communities and a growth effect spurred by the increase in aggregate demand due to a public-spending shock and the progressive participation of refugees in the host socio-economic system. to support this hypothesis, we analyze the effect of hosting a camp on economic growth in the surrounding area (within 10 km from the camp). we find evidence that, on average, camps positively affect economic growth. $%'-023456?��ʸʩʸ��wobbtf9thj�5�ojqj^jo(h�.�h�.�5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h�]5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jajh�.�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�.�h�.�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj 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