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��ࡱ�>�� r��bjbj��2��}�}�~ ��8/|�$��ql��'q)q)q)q)q)q)q$8s��u8mq9�mq��4�q��n��'q�'q��p��y�o��qv�q�q0�q�v�:v��(1v�n�mqmq!��q��v��: world development volume 153, issue 5, may 2022 1. title: political competition and public healthcare: evidence from india authors: subham kailthya, uma kambhampati abstract: in this paper, we examine the causal effect of political competition on public provision of healthcare. specifically, we investigate whether the effect of political competition on more visible public goods (e.g. health centre access) differs from its impact on less visible public goods (e.g. health centre capacity such as doctors, medical supplies, etc.). using granular data from three recent waves of the indian district level household survey (dlhs) during 2002�2013 and an instrumental variable approach, we find that incumbents respond to electoral competition, measured as the effective number of parties (enp), by trading-off less visible health centre capacity for more visible access to health centres. we provide suggestive evidence that focusing on more visible health centres boosts the incumbent party�s re-election prospects providing a clear motive for incumbent�s action. in addition, we examine the effect of election-year cycles and the role of political alignment in healthcare provision and find compelling evidence of a political economic mechanism at work. by contrast, political competition has no measurable impact on key health outcomes. we conduct several robustness checks to ensure that our estimates are reliable. thus, our results suggest that electoral competition must be accompanied by strong checks on accountability to improve health outcomes. 2. title: a supercyclone, landscapes of �emptiness� and shrimp aquaculture: the lesser-known trajectories of disaster recovery in coastal odisha, india authors: vasudha chhotray abstract: this paper critically examines the reconfiguration of post-supercyclone ersama in coastal odisha in india, to encourage the introduction of a new form of shrimp aquaculture as the principal livelihood. it demonstrates the operation of a powerful shared construction of ersama, a typically paddy cultivating area, as a landscape rendered �empty� and �unproductive� by the supercyclone of 1999. the paper shows how this notion, shared by locals and external actors, facilitates the entry of the forces of commercial aquaculture at the cost of increased socio-economic inequalities and risk-taking for the poorest participants, as well as the exclusion of women from this new livelihood. memories of previous disastrous attempts at shrimp culture are obliterated through misleading narratives about the potent productivity of a new type of shrimp by the proponents of aquaculture. the state has presided through uneven regulation, disregarding the damaging effects of commercial aquaculture for the coastal environment. the paper argues that besides the provision of disaster relief, the state restricts its own responsibilities towards disaster prone and affected populations to the creation of warning systems and physical infrastructures. however, it assigns the broader challenge of disaster recovery to ongoing processes of capitalist development. even as the resulting precarity, both economic and environmental, threaten long-term and inclusive recovery, the state delinks disaster recovery from questions of structural risk resulting from exclusionary development pathways, depoliticising it considerably. 3. title: examining norms and social expectations surrounding exclusive breastfeeding: evidence from mali authors: cristina bicchieri, upasak das, samuel gant, rachel sander abstract: do mothers' perceptions of community behavior and their beliefs about exclusive breastfeeding affect their own infant feeding behavior? we explore this relationship using a primary survey of 925 mothers with children of two years or below conducted in 2019 in the kayes and sikasso regions of mali. among other information, we collected self-reported data on the respondent�s social expectations about the beliefs and behaviors of their community members apart from their own infant feeding behavior. the findings from regression estimations, after controlling for a host of potential confounding factors, indicate that children whose mothers think most individuals in her community exclusively breastfeed their infants, regardless of factual accuracy, are significantly more likely to be exclusively breastfed in the first six months. beliefs about community approval of exclusive infant breastfeeding behavior are also found to be significantly associated, albeit modestly. in addition, children of mothers who hold false but positive beliefs and over-predict the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding practices in the community are more likely to be exclusively breastfed. further, we utilize responses from hypothetical vignettes where the levels of social expectations are experimentally manipulated. here, prevalence of and beliefs about community infant feeding behavior are randomized across the respondents and then they are asked to predict the breastfeeding behavior of an imaginary vignette character under such conditions. the findings indicate a positive and robust relationship between the prevalence of community level exclusive breastfeeding and the predicted behavior concerning exclusive breastfeeding. a number of additional tests are conducted to ensure that the estimates are not confounded by unobserved heterogeneity. we assert that our findings can potentially represent an important foundation for the design of interventions aimed at altering social expectations, and thus effecting a measurable change in infant breastfeeding behaviors. 4. title: the impacts of the 2015 gorkha earthquake on children�s health in nepal authors: binod khanal abstract: a 7.8 richter-scale magnitude earthquake hit central nepal in 2015, affecting multiple facets of the economy. this study explores the health impacts of this earthquake on the prevalence of diarrhea, cough, and fever among nepalese children less than five years old. to this end, i use data from two recent waves of the demographic health survey (2011 and 2016) and employ difference-in-difference as an identification strategy. results show that the prevalence of diarrhea, cough, and fever was between 3.9 and 6.3 percentage points higher among children in earthquake-affected areas. these results are equivalent to an increase in diarrhea, fever, and cough cases among the children in earthquake-affected districts by 32.2, 35.5, and 25.7 percent, respectively. a drop in the vaccination rate suggests a lack of health care facilities in the earthquake-affected areas that could have contributed to child health problems. a decrease in the availability of clean drinking water in the earthquake-affected regions could also be a mechanism behind the prevalence of the diseases. disaster-preparedness plans in disaster-prone low-income countries should prioritize child health by making necessary health care services available and ensuring the supply of safe drinking water. 5. title: forest income and livelihoods on pemba: a quantitative ethnography authors: jeffrey andrews, monique borgerhoff mulder abstract: this paper offers a systematic approach to quantifying the socio-economic role of forests for 'forest-dependent' communities. focusing on the island of pemba (zanzibar, tanzania), we investigate how forest income contributes to livelihood portfolios, local inequality, and households' insurance against shocks. we also examine how forest income is affected by local institutions and household socio-demographics. we use a series of non-parametric measures in conjunction with multi-level bayesian models supported by directed acyclic graphs to address these questions. on average, we find that 27% of household income comes from forests, with 83% of that value deriving from fuel products, and that 62% of the total value of forest products are harvested from the agroforestry scrub matrix. at the same time, forest income scales positively with income, forest-dependency scales negatively. top income earners control <" 4 times more forest income than low earners. however, when we consider forestry against other economic sectors, forest income reduces overall income inequality on the island. despite forests being critical for the poor, we find it offers little insurance against shocks, especially for the vulnerable. in fact, in contrast to expectations, we find that the well-insured are the most likely to increase forest use in response to shocks. regarding institutions, most forest products come from either government land or land owned by other private individuals, indicating weak tenure institutions on the island. finally, young, poorly educated male-headed households, which are not integrated into markets, are the most likely to have high forest income. however, female-headed households are generally more dependent due to a lack of alternative income sources. our results are encouraging as the use of tools from formal causal inference and detailed bayesian modelling, in conjunction with a quantitative ethnography, build upon previous findings while improving our understanding of local socio-ecological systems. 6. title: horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare authors: ricardo hausmann, ulrich schetter abstract: we analyze how poverty and a country�s fiscal space impact policy and welfare in times of a pandemic. we introduce a subsistence level of consumption into a tractable heterogeneous agent framework, and use this framework to characterize optimal joint policies of a lockdown and transfer payments. in our model, a more stringent lockdown helps fighting the pandemic, but it also deepens the recession, which implies that poorer parts of society find it harder to subsist. this reduces their compliance with the lockdown, and may cause deprivation of the very poor, giving rise to an excruciating trade-off between saving lives from the pandemic and from deprivation. transfer payments help mitigate this trade-off. we show that, ceteris paribus, the optimal lockdown is stricter in richer countries and the aggregate death burden and welfare losses smaller. we then consider a government borrowing constraint and show that limited fiscal space lowers the optimal lockdown and welfare, and increases the aggregate death burden during the pandemic. this is particularly true in societies where a larger fraction of the population is in poverty. we discuss evidence from the literature and provide reduced-form regressions that support the relevance of our main mechanisms. we finally discuss distributional consequences and the political economy of fighting a pandemic. 7. title: the committeefication of collective action in africa authors: caroline archambault, david ehrhardt abstract: over the last century, africa has witnessed considerable committeefication, a process by which committees have become increasingly important to organise collective action. throughout the continent, committees have come to preside over everything from natural resource management to cultural life, and from peacebuilding to community consultation. what has been the impact of this dramatic institutional change on the nature and quality of collective action? drawing on decades of anthropological research and development work in east africa � studying, working with and working in committees of various kinds � this article presents an approach to addressing this question. we show how committees have surface features as well as deep functions, and that the impact of committeefication depends not only on their features and functions but also on the pathways through which they proliferate. on the surface, committees aim for inclusive and deliberative decision making, even if they vary in the specifics of their missions, membership, decision-making rules, and level of autonomy. but their deep functions can be quite different: a fa�ade for accessing recognition or resources; a classroom for learning leadership skills; or a club for elites to pursue their shared interests. the impact of these features and functions depends on the pathways through which they grow: autonomous from existing forms of collective action; in synergistic cooperation; or in competition, possibly weakening or even destroying existing local institutions. community-based development interventions often rely heavily on committeefied collective action. this paper identifies the benefits that this strategy can have, but also shows its potential to weaken or even destroy existing forms of collective action. on that basis, we suggest that it is imperative to turn more systematic analytical attention to committees, and assess the extent to which they are delivering development or crippling collective action in the guise of democracy and deliberation. 8. title: economies of scale of large-scale international development interventions: evidence from self-help groups in india authors: garima siwach, sohini paul, thomas de hoop abstract: livelihoods and microfinance programs for women often show reduced impacts after scale-up. yet, program scale-up may reduce average per capita costs and maintain cost-effectiveness despite lower impact. this paper presents evidence on the association between program scale, costs, and cost-effectiveness by analyzing how the costs of a large-scale self-help group (shg) program in india changed from its inception in 2007 to its scale-up in 2019. we use expenditure data from program�s audit statements of jeevika � the bihar rural livelihoods promotion society � and find that a 1% increase in program membership was associated with a 0.6% increase in annual program expenditures, indicating large economies of scale. predicted costs from regressions suggest that the annual per capita program expenditures declined from $29 when the program covered 100,000 members to $5 when it reached 10 million members. previous impact evaluations of jeevika showed sizeable but smaller substitutions away from high-cost debt after scale-up than during the pilot, but we found that economies of scale led to similar cost-effectiveness ratios for this outcome. we also found that formation of higher-level federations is associated with lower marginal costs than setting up shgs. however, previous evidence suggests that jeevika did not generate average impacts on women�s agency and asset ownership after scale-up. building on a rich history of research on jeevika, we argue that program implementers must identify key success factors in pilot programs to minimize tradeoffs between cost savings and potentially reduced impacts after scale-up. further, we suggest investments in linking shgs to federations to improve the cost-effectiveness of shgs. 9. title: the short-term impacts of covid-19 on households in developing countries: an overview based on a harmonized dataset of high-frequency surveys authors: tom bundervoet, maria e. d�valos, natalia garcia abstract: we combine new data from high-frequency surveys with data on the stringency of containment measures to examine the short-term impacts of the covid-19 pandemic on households in developing countries. this paper is one of the first to document the impacts of covid-19 on households across a large number of developing countries and to do so for a comparable time-period, corresponding to the peak of the pandemic-induced drop in human mobility, and the first to systematically analyze the cross- and within-country effects on employment, income, food security and learning. using representative data from 31 countries, accounting for a combined population of almost 1.4 billion, we find that in the average country 36 percent of respondents stopped working in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, 65 percent of households reported decreases in income, and 30 percent of children were unable to continue learning during school closures. pandemic-induced jobs and income losses translated into heightened food insecurity at the household level. the more stringent the virus containment measures, the higher the likelihood of jobs and income losses. the pandemic�s effects were widespread and regressive, disproportionally affecting vulnerable segments of the population. women, youth, and workers without higher education � groups disadvantaged in the labor market before the covid-19 shock � were significantly more likely to lose their jobs and experience decreased incomes. self-employed and casual workers � the most vulnerable workers in developing countries � bore the brunt of the pandemic-induced income losses. interruptions in learning were most salient for children from lower-income countries, and within countries for children from lower-income households with lower-educated parents and in rural areas. the unequal impacts of the pandemic across socio-economic groups risk cementing inequality of opportunity and undermining social mobility and calls for policies to foster an inclusive recovery and strengthen resilience to future shocks. 10. title: can insurance catalyse government planning on climate? emergent evidence from sub-saharan africa authors: swenja surminski, jonathan barnes, katharine vincent abstract: this paper explores how climate risk information produced in the context of insurance-related activities can support public climate adaptation planning. the central contribution is to outline how relevant climate risk information can translate into behaviour change, and the drivers and barriers that influence this in sub-saharan africa. the insurance industry has the potential to catalyse greater use of climate information, either through existing insurance transactions or through capacity building and investment in data sharing and collaboration. we investigate the interplay of climate risk information and insurance processes from two angles: the use of climate risk data by those who provide insurance � with information as an input to the underwriting process; and the catalyst role of insurance for governments to move towards anticipatory climate risk management. we apply a multi-method approach, combining insights from a survey of 40 insurance experts with key informant interviews and document analysis from three complementary case studies: indemnity-based insurance of private assets in south africa; parametric sovereign risk pool in malawi; and collaboration on risk analytics and risk management advice (no insurance) in tanzania. the analysis offers a new perspective on the catalyst role of insurance by focusing on the ways in which political economy factors, particularly incentives and relationships, influence this process. overall, there appears to be clear scope for a dynamic interaction between insurers and governments where symbiotic use and generation of climate risk information can advance mutual goals. however, that ambition faces many challenges that go beyond availability and suitability of data. limited trust, unclear risk ownership and/or lack of incentives are key barriers, even if there is risk awareness and overall motivation to manage climate risks. the three cases show the importance of sustained cross-sectoral collaboration and capacity building to increase awareness and utilization of insurance-related climate risk information. 11. title: women�s land rights and village institutions in tanzania authors: garance genicot, maria hernandez-de-benito abstract: strengthening women�s ownership of and control over land is an important development goal. this paper studies the extent of women�s land rights in rural tanzania and how patrilineal norms affect them. we show that married women in rural tanzania still own little land without their husbands and have limited rights over the jointly owned land. in tanzania, an inherent tension lies in the recognition of customary laws that explicitly discriminate against women, and statutory laws that establish equal rights for men and women. customary patrilineal practices persist. in particular, we find that firstborn sons are expected to inherit more land than firstborn daughters, and widows� inheritance rights are affected by the gender of their children. we also find that women�s tenure security in case of divorce or inheritance is fragile. in tanzania, village institutions play a key role in the management of land rights and the mediation of land disputes. we find that members of village institutions have more pro-women views on land rights than the average household respondent. however, using randomized vignettes to measure gender bias, we show they do not always make gender-neutral recommendations in case of land disputes. 12. title: employment and sustainability: the relation between precarious work and spatial inequality in the neoliberal city authors: andr�s se�oret, maria in�s ramirez, johannes rehner abstract: the creation of employment opportunities is a key factor to economic growth, but when pursuing sustainable development, work arrangements must also be fair and stable. in contrast, precarious employment is a common and serious limitation to prospects for development and personal well being in latin american cities. discussing this phenomenon in the developing world requires considering the ongoing transformation of the neoliberal urban labour market, the commodity-driven economic structure, and questioning how such features relate to the likelihood of urban sustainable development. the present study addresses precarity in urban labour markets and subjective perceptions of stability and prospects and asks how marginalisation and fragmented urban spaces in a neoliberal context relate to the structural characteristics of precarious labour. this relationship between labour and space is analysed based on survey data from different types of neighbourhoods in chile�s two largest metropolitan areas � santiago and concepci�n � using multilevel regression and anova. our study finds that precarious employment and poor prospects replicate and reinforce typical territorial inequalities and thus constitute a serious limitation for sustainable development. we conclude that the current labour market, the features of neoliberal extractivism, and weak formal social protection are obstructing urban development that is sustainable in terms of employment. thus, the conceptual debate on sustainability and urban policy should focus more on the negative effects of precarious employment and its particular relation to spatial fragmentation in growing urban areas. 13. title: income shock and food insecurity prediction vietnam under the pandemic authors: khoa vu, nguyen dinh tuan vuong, tu-anh vu-thanh, anh ngoc nguyen abstract: as covid-19 threatens the food security of vulnerable populations across the globe, there is an increasing need to identify places that are affected most in order to target aid. we propose a two-step approach to predict changes in food insecurity risk caused by income shocks at a granular level using existing household-level data and external information on aggregate income shocks. we apply this approach to assess changes in food insecurity risk during the pandemic in vietnam. using national household survey data between 2010 and 2018, we first estimate that a 10% decrease in income leads to a 3.5% increase in food insecurity. we then use the 2019 national labor force survey to predict changes in the share of food-insecure households caused by the income shocks during the pandemic for 702 districts. we find that the small, predicted change in food insecurity risk at the national level masks substantial variation at the district level, and changes in food insecurity risk are larger among young children. food relief policies, therefore, should prioritize a small number of districts predicted to be severely affected. 14. title: the effect of armed conflict on intimate partner violence: evidence from the boko haram insurgency in nigeria authors: uche eseosa ekhator-mobayode, lucia c. hanmer, eliana rubiano-matulevich, diana jimena arango abstract: intimate partner violence (ipv) is the most common form of violence against women in both conflict and non-conflict settings but in conflict settings it often receives less attention than other forms of gender-based violence (gbv), such as conflict-related sexual violence. to examine whether increased rates of ipv are linked to conflict we use data from domestic violence module of the nigerian demographic and health survey (ndhs) collected in 2008 and 2013 and spatially link them to the boko haram (bh) actor file of the armed conflict location and events database (acled). to estimate whether the bh insurgency is associated with increases in ipv we use a quasi-experimental approach, employing a kernel-based difference-in-difference model. we also examine the effect of the bh insurgency on women�s likelihood of experiencing controlling behavior from a husband or partner, women�s autonomy in household decision-making and their control over their own earnings. we find that the presence of bh increases the probability that women experience physical or sexual ipv by about 4 percentage points after controlling for known correlates of ipv; partner�s alcohol use, previous exposure to ipv and condoning ipv as a social norm. further, we find controlling behaviors from husbands/partners � another form of ipv - are heightened in locations that are impacted by the bh insurgency. in these places women�s risk of experiencing controlling behavior increases by 14 percentage points, indicating that the bh insurgency exacerbates another form of ipv; behaviors that are often pre-cursors to physical and sexual ipv. our results underscore the need for policy makers to prioritize programs that respond to and prevent ipv in conflict affected settings. effective program responses can be both integrated into sectoral programs and delivered as standalone programs alongside other interventions that provide services to communities living in conflict-affected settings. 15. title: long-term impacts of school nutrition: evidence from china�s school meal reform authors: guanfu fang, ying zhu abstract: child malnutrition remains a major public health concern, especially in many developing countries. this paper examines the long-term effects of a school meal program on individuals� cognitive and health outcomes in rural china. exploiting the staggered implementation of the student nutrition improvement program (snip), we find that early exposure to the snip (ages 6�15) significantly improved children�s cognitive and health outcomes in the long run. these effects are not observed in urban residents who experienced similar socioeconomic changes in the same county. empirical tests suggest that short-term improvements in children�s nutrient intakes and mothers� labor market performance were likely to be potential mechanisms. moreover, the effects of early exposure to the snip are stronger among children from low-socioeconomic status families. our results suggest that the school nutrition program could be an important investment in children�s long-run human capital. this may be relevant for many developing countries today that attempt to provide or have provided subsidized school meals. 16. title: colonial origin, ethnicity and intergenerational mobility in africa authors: patricia funjika, yoseph y. getachew abstract: this paper examines the relationship between an individual�s human capital and that of their parents� ethnic group in former british and french colonies in africa. using pooled cross-sectional data from eight african countries, four former french colonies (cote d�ivoire, guinea, madagascar, niger) and four former british colonies (ghana, malawi, nigeria, uganda), we find large effects of parental ethnicity on individuals� human capital. our results show that colonial origin may be important in understanding intergenerational mobility in african countries via its effect on ethnic relations. ethnic capital has a persistent effect. this effect, which could be attributed to differences in administration styles adopted during the colonial period, is higher in former british than former french colonies. birth cohort regression analysis further shows that the ethnic effect has declined across cohorts in former british colonies while remaining comparatively static in former french colonies. our results are robust to the use of different estimation techniques. 17. title: the effects of fiscal policy on households during the covid-19 pandemic: evidence from thailand and vietnam authors: dzung bui, lena dr�ger, bernd hayo, giang nghiem abstract: the economic crisis created by the covid-19 pandemic induced many governments to provide financial assistance to households. using representative consumer surveys conducted during the pandemic in 2020, we examine the effects of this fiscal policy instrument on households in two emerging economies, thailand and vietnam. our paper contributes to the literature by studying how consumer sentiment and durable spending relate to receiving government financial support and the underlying transmission channels for these responses. we find that financial support to households is related to more positive consumer sentiment and increases in actual and planned durable spending, while also being correlated with a more optimistic macroeconomic outlook, higher trust in the government, and higher personal well-being. 18. title: using political settlements analysis to explain poverty trends in ethiopia, malawi, rwanda and tanzania authors: blessings chinsinga, ezana haddis weldeghebrael, tim kelsall, nicolai schulz, timothy p. williams abstract: this article uses political settlements analysis to help illuminate trends in poverty reduction in ethiopia, malawi, rwanda and tanzania. drawing on data from the esid political settlements dataset and our own coding, it finds that the predictions of political settlements theory about the relationship between political settlement type and actual poverty reduction are reasonably well supported by the data, with �broad-concentrated� rwanda performing best and �narrow-dispersed� ethiopia worst for the period in question. it then supplements this finding with a largely qualitative analytical narrative, illustrating some of the ways in which political settlement type impacted on poverty reduction through the causal mechanisms of elite commitment and state capability. although our typology does not explain all of the observed phenomena, we argue that, when supplemented by other variables such as ideology, it is a promising explanatory model. 19. title: disentangling the impact of a multiple-component project on sdg dimensions: the case of durum wheat value chain development in oromia (ethiopia) authors: mario biggeri, alessandro carraro, federico ciani, donato romano abstract: the overall objective of this paper is to assess the impact of a value chain development project � the avcpo in the bale region (oromia, ethiopia) � on smallholder households focusing on the relationship between the food security goal (sdg2) and other sdg-related outcomes such as education (sdg4) and collective action and social capital (sdg16). possible co-benefits and synergies among the sdgs are explored using a variety of approaches ranging from instrument variable techniques to evaluate the project overall impact on the various sdgs, multi-valued treatment effect analysis to assess which project component is more effective in achieving the expected impacts, and causal mediation modelling to evaluate to what extent collective action and social capital can play a role in achieving food security and education. our study shows that the aggregate impact is positive and significant on most of 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