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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�7�bjbj�n�n2��a��a}� ��""��8��4�ttleee�s�s�s�s�s�s�s$�u��x<�s9�eeeee�s��4.toooe��soe�sooo��`�!�*��(o�sdt0tto�xc��xoo|0�x��o�eeoeeeee�s�s%jeeetteeee��xeeeeeeeee"qs: the american political science review volume 118, issue 2, may 2024 1. title: state violence, party formation, and electoral accountability: the political legacy of the marikana massacre authors: daniel de kadt, ada johnson-kanu, melissa l. sands abstract: democratic governments sometimes use violence against their people, yet little is known about the electoral consequences of these events. studying south africa�s marikana massacre, we document how a new opposition party formed as a direct result of violence, quantify significant electoral losses for the incumbent, and show that those losses were driven by voters switching from the incumbent to the new party. three lessons emerge. first, incumbents who preside over state violence may be held electorally accountable by voters. second, such accountability seemingly depends on the existence of credible opposition parties that can serve as a vector for disaffected voters. where such parties do not exist, violence may create political cleavages that facilitate the formalization of opposition movements. third, immediate proximity to violence is correlated with holding incumbents accountable. 2. title: repression and dissent in moments of uncertainty: panel data evidence from zimbabwe authors: adrienne lebas, lauren e. young abstract: state repression and protest are common in modern authoritarian and hybrid regimes, yet individual responses to these events are not well understood. this article draws on unique panel data from the months spanning zimbabwe�s 2018 election, which we view as a moment of uncertainty for most zimbabwean citizens. using a difference-in-difference estimator, we estimate change in individual protest intentions following exposure to repression and dissent and we assess three individual-level mechanisms hypothesized to drive responses. we find evidence that exposure to local repression and dissent are mobilizing among opposition supporters and nonpartisans. analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that the effects of exposure to dissent may be driven by information updating, whereas relational and emotional mechanisms seem to drive backlash against repression, despite increased perceptions of risk. we find no evidence of counter-mobilization by ruling party supporters, and little effect of exposure to contentious events over social media. 3. title: identifying the rich: registration, taxation, and access to the state in tanzania authors: jeremy bowles abstract: how do states build their informational capacity? this article argues that distributive politics conditions how the state�s capacity develops. i study civil registration, where citizens comply with the state�s informational demands in exchange for documentary proof of identity, which may simultaneously facilitate access to public resources and exposure to taxation. though the rich are particularly threatened by taxation, the narrow benefits of registration induce their compliance over that of the poor. i leverage a set of reforms in early postindependence tanzania which provide quasi-random variation in citizens� registration status and show that registration promotes access to narrow-based resources, rather than broad-based ones, while increasing tax payment. in turn, citizens� decisions to comply reflect the economically stratified local incidence of these net benefits. the results suggest how nominally universal state-building schemes can have regressive effects on the state�s coverage. 4. title: bringing in the new votes: turnout of women after enfranchisement authors: mona morgan-collins abstract: under what conditions did newly enfranchised women turn out to vote at levels approaching men? this question is important because if women�s turnout lagged behind men�s, politicians� incentives to advocate for women�s interests could remain weak even after suffrage. i argue that women�s turnout approached parity with men�s in localities with strong incentives to vote and to mobilize among the general population. this is because women faced barriers to voting and were, therefore, more likely to vote and be mobilized under the most favorable circumstances. i then propose that electoral competition determines the strength of voting and mobilization incentives and, therefore, the gender turnout gap. using sex-separated turnout data in norway, i demonstrate that the gap narrows in high-turnout competitive districts in systems with single-member districts and in high-turnout within-district strongholds in proportional systems. i probe generalizability of my findings in new zealand, austria, and sweden. 5. title: buying a blind eye: campaign donations, regulatory enforcement, and deforestation authors: robin harding, mounu prem, nelson a. ruiz, david l. vargas abstract: while existing work has demonstrated that campaign donations can buy access to benefits such as favorable legislation and preferential contracting, we highlight another use of campaign contributions: buying reductions in regulatory enforcement. specifically, we argue that in return for campaign contributions, colombian mayors who rely on donor-funding (compared with those who do not) choose not to enforce sanctions against illegal deforestation activities. using a regression discontinuity design, we show that deforestation is significantly higher in municipalities that elect donor-funded as opposed to self-funded politicians. further analysis shows that only part of this effect can be explained by differences in contracting practices by donor-funded mayors. instead, evidence of heterogeneity in the effects according to the presence of alternative formal and informal enforcement institutions, and analysis of fire clearance, support the interpretation that campaign contributions buy reductions in the enforcement of environmental regulations. 6. title: patterns of affective polarization toward parties and leaders across the democratic world authors: andres reiljan, diego garzia, frederico ferreira da silva, alexander h. trechsel abstract: research indicates that affective polarization pervades contemporary democracies worldwide. although some studies identify party leaders as polarizing agents, affective polarization has been predominantly conceptualized as a product of in-/out-party feelings. this study compares levels of party affective polarization (pap) and leader affective polarization (lap) cross-nationally, using data from the comparative study of electoral systems. applying like�dislike scales and an identical index to both concepts, we reveal that while the two strongly correlate, lap is systematically lower than pap. the united states emerges as an exceptional case, being the only country where lap significantly exceeds pap. drawing on regime input/output and institutions as theoretical building blocks, we explore cross-national variations and show that the relative strength of lap vis-�-vis pap is increased by presidential regime type, poor government performance, and low party system fragmentation. the findings of this study contribute to the thriving research on affective polarization and personalization of politics. 7. title: military repression and restraint in algeria authors: sharan grewal abstract: the algerian military�s response to the 2019�2020 hirak protests was relatively peaceful. in contrast to its violent repression of protests in 1988, and subsequent coup and civil war in the 1990s, the military showed considerable restraint toward the hirak. leveraging a survey of 2,235 self-reported military personnel, i show that the military�s restraint emanated from protesters� use of nonviolence and fraternization, as well as from a recognition that the military�s more repressive approach in the 1990s was a mistake. at the same time, a priming experiment suggests that the military�s willingness to repress increases when protesters threaten the military�s corporate interests, and when russia, algeria�s primary arms supplier, reiterates its support for the regime. overall, the results show how protester tactics, international reactions, and political learning can condition the military�s repression or restraint during times of unrest. 8. title: movement versus party: the electoral effects of anti-far right protests in greece authors: antonis a. ellinas, iasonas lamprianou abstract: the way social protest affects electoral outcomes remains a lacuna. this article helps fill this gap by examining how social protest against far right actors affects their electoral standing. the article utilizes a unique dataset of 4,745 local protest events to investigate how mobilization against the far right in greece affected its electoral performance. the article finds that protest activity depressed the electoral results of the far right golden dawn by as much as 16%, after controlling for a number of important variables. the article identifies and specifies the patterns through which protests against the far right affect its electoral standing. protests are effective when following the �tango� pattern�when there is close interaction of far right and anti-far right events. the timing of protest is also important and the article shows how the synchronization of protest and electoral cycles affects electoral outcomes. the article uses the findings to discuss the varying impact of protest across electoral cycles. 9. title: regime support and gender quotas in autocracies authors: yuree noh, sharan grewal, m. tahir kilavuz abstract: gender quotas are increasingly being adopted by autocrats in part to legitimize their rule. yet, even in autocracies, these quotas increase women�s political representation. it thus stands to reason that public support for gender quotas in autocracies might be shaped by this trade-off between advancing women�s rights and granting the regime legitimacy. all else equal, regime opponents should be less supportive of gender quotas in autocracies, wary of legitimizing the regime. we uncover evidence of this proposition in an analysis of region-wide arab barometer surveys and a survey experiment in algeria. we also find that evaluations of this trade-off are conditioned by other demographics, with women, gender egalitarians, and islamists remaining more consistent in their support for/opposition to gender quotas regardless of regime gains. overall, our findings suggest that gender quotas in autocracies are viewed through a political lens, creating a potential backlash toward women�s empowerment. 10. title: consolidating progress: the selection of female ministers in autocracies and democracies authors: jacob nyrup, hikaru yamagishi, stuart bramwell abstract: though governments historically have been a men�s club, women are increasingly gaining access. we argue that democratic institutions are important drivers of women�s inclusion in government. this stems from the rationales of autocratic versus democratic leaders when selecting ministers. autocrats fear a coup by inner-circle elites, who are mostly men, incentivizing them to assign ministerial positions as co-optation. in contrast, democratic leaders are accountable to the citizenry through elections and must satisfy increasing demands for gender equality. furthermore, we argue that it is historical experience with democracy that matters, rather than the level, as it takes time to create an even playing field, change attitudes, and generate trust in democracy. to support this, we contribute with the first study using the most comprehensive dataset, whogov, on women�s access to cabinets. overall, we show that democracy is a process that gradually enables women to enter the highest echelons of power. 11. title: drinking tea with the neighbors: informal clubs, general trust, and trustworthiness in mali authors: jaimie bleck, jacopo bonan, philippe lemay-boucher, bassirou sarr abstract: there has been scant empirical evidence linking associational membership to general trust and trustworthiness. this study explores urban youth clubs in mali and asks: is membership in these groups associated with greater trust and trustworthiness toward society? it leverages 18 months of fieldwork, including 375 group surveys, 2,525 individual surveys, over 1,300 trust games, and transcripts from 66 focus groups. we use propensity score matching to analyze how members and nonmembers play the trust game with strangers. members are more trustworthy; they return 12% more to their partners than nonmember peers. we do not find a systematic effect of membership on trust. trustworthiness in the game is also positively correlated with self-reported trust and tolerance as well as real-world behaviors including volunteering and helping friends. focus group data highlight five mechanisms by which membership fosters general trustworthiness: bonding among diverse members, bridging, public goods provision, socialization, and psychological support. 12. title: representation and forest conservation: evidence from india�s scheduled areas authors: saad gulzar, apoorva lal, benjamin pasquale abstract: how does political representation affect conservation? we argue that the mixed evidence in the literature may be driven by institutional arrangements that provide authority to marginalized communities, but do not make adequate arrangements to truly boost their voice in resource management. we study a 1996 law that created local government councils with mandated representation for india�s scheduled tribes (st), a community of one hundred million. using difference-in-differences designs, we find that the dramatic increase in st representation led to a substantial increase in tree cover and a reduction in deforestation. we present suggestive evidence that representation enabled marginalized communities to better pursue their interests, which, unlike commercial operations such as mining, are compatible with forest conservation. while conservation policy tends to stress environmentally focused institutions, we suggest more attention be given to umbrella institutions, such as political representation, which can address conservation and development for marginalized communities in tandem. 13. title: the composition of descriptive representation authors: john gerring, connor t. jerzak, erzen �ncel abstract: how well do governments represent the societies they serve? a key aspect of this question concerns the extent to which leaders reflect the demographic features of the population they represent. to address this important issue in a systematic manner, we propose a unified approach for measuring descriptive representation. we apply this approach to newly collected data describing the ethnic, linguistic, religious, and gender identities of over fifty thousand leaders serving in 1,552 political bodies across 156 countries. strikingly, no country represents social groups in rough proportion to their share of the population. to explain this shortfall, we focus on compositional factors�the size of political bodies as well as the number and relative size of social groups. we investigate these factors using a simple model based on random sampling and the original data described above. our analyses demonstrate that roughly half of the variability in descriptive representation is attributable to compositional factors. 14. title: global slavery in the making of states and international orders authors: j.c. sharman, ay_e zarakol abstract: despite having key implications for fundamental political science questions, slavery as a global phenomenon has received little attention in the field. we argue that slavery played an important role in state-building and international order formation. to counter a historical u.s./atlantic bias, we draw evidence mostly from the middle east, africa, and asia. we identify two slave-based paths to state construction. a �slaves as the state� logic saw slave soldiers and administrators used to overcome the constraints of indirect rule in centralizing power. in a �slaves under the state� model the economy was based on slave production, itself underpinned by institutionalized state coercion. norms often prohibited enslavement within communities, thus externalizing demand. this led to militarized slaving, and fostered increasingly long-distance trade in slaves. the combination of these normative, military, and commercial factors formed international slaving orders. 15. title: civilian protest in civil war: insights from c�te d�ivoire authors: sebastian van baalen abstract: how does civilian protest shape civil war dynamics? existing research shows that civilian protests against violence and war contribute to peace and restrain violence against civilians. there is less research on civilian protests that are at odds with peaceful conflict resolution, such as protests to salute armed actors, advocate against peace agreements, and oppose peacekeepers. this study develops a novel typology of wartime civilian protest that brings together protests to different ends, and theorizes the heterogeneous effects of protest on civil war dynamics. using quantitative and qualitative evidence from new disaggregated and georeferenced event data from c�te d�ivoire, the study demonstrates that�contingent on certain demands�protests were associated with violence against civilians, violence involving peacekeepers, and failed conflict resolution. these findings contribute new knowledge on how civilians shape the dynamics of civil war, and caution that nonviolent civilian action may not only be a force for de-escalation and peace. 16. title: sisters are doing it for themselves: how female combatants help generate gender-inclusive peace agreements in civil wars authors: jakana l. thomas abstract: this article examines the effect rebel women have on the shape of civil war peace agreements, paying particular attention to the specific gender-inclusive provisions female rebels advocate for. i argue that, through conflict experiences and socialization, rebel women develop group identities that foster collective demands. their identities as fighters and women from marginalized groups encourage rebel women to lobby for provisions that address the grievances of women from these societal groups. using data on women�s participation in conflict and the terms written into contemporary peace agreements, i find support for this contention. greater participation of female combatants is associated with an increased likelihood of observing gender-inclusive agreement provisions calling for the inclusion of women from marginalized groups and addressing the specific post-conflict needs of female ex-combatants. this study is one of the first to show that women�s participation in rebellion matters for the shape of post-conflict peace. 17. title: the right to hunger strike authors: candice delmas abstract: hunger strikes are commonly repressed in prison and seen as disruptive, coercive, and violent. hunger strikers and their advocates insist that incarcerated persons have a right to hunger strike, which protects them against repression and force-feeding. physicians and medical ethicists generally ground this right in the right to refuse medical treatment; lawyers and legal scholars derive it from incarcerated persons� free speech rights. neither account adequately grounds the right to hunger strike because both misrepresent the hunger strike as noncoercive and nonviolent. i articulate an alternative, dual account of the right to hunger strike. on the remedial argument, the right to hunger strike should be legally protected as a right to petition for redress, in light of incarcerated people�s structural vulnerability to abuse and given inadequate grievance mechanisms. the constructive argument derives the right to hunger strike from the right to resist oppression and stresses the normative permissibility of the use of coercive tactics to defend one�s liberty interests in the face of carceral oppression. 18. title: activism versus criticism? the case for a distinctive role for social critics authors: lisa gilson abstract: this essay makes a distinction between the roles that activists and social critics can play in democratic societies and defends the separate tasks of a non-activist social critic. drawing on ralph waldo emerson�s writings, i argue that non-activist social critics are better situated than activists to reach certain audiences, cultivate certain democratic capacities, and preserve their audience�s agency while doing so. in emerson�s case, his concerns about his activist contemporaries led him to craft new ways of critically engaging his peers. at the same time, as emerson�s life also illustrates, non-activist critics are limited by their roles and must forgo some of their distinctive advantages in order to do activist work. clarifying the scope of the social critic�s role in this way helps critics to draw on the benefits of their position and avoid overstepping its constraints, thereby allowing them to more effectively promote political reform. 19. title: the view from the future: aurobindo ghose�s anticolonial darwinism authors: inder s. marwah abstract: darwinism and evolutionary theory have a bad track record in political theory, given their entanglements with fin-de-si�cle militarist imperialisms, racialized hierarchies, and eugenic reformism. in colonial contexts, however, darwinism had an entirely different afterlife as anticolonialists marshaled evolutionist frameworks to contest the parameters of colonial rule. this article exhumes just such an evolutionary anticolonialism in the political thought of aurobindo ghose, radical firebrand of the early indian independence movement. i argue that ghose drew on a nuanced reform darwinism to criticize british imperialism and advance an alternative grounded in the indian polity�s mutualism. evolutionism formed a conceptual ecosystem framing his understanding of progress�national, civilizational, and spiritual�and reformulating the temporal and conceptual coordinates of the liberal empire he resisted. the article thus exposes the constructiveness of anticolonial politics, the hybridity of south asian intellectual history, and the surprising critical potential of darwinism in colonial settings. 20. title: discrimination without traits: from social construction to the politics of discrimination authors: diana popescu-sarry abstract: theories of discrimination typically select properties such as race, gender, sexuality, or ethnicity as being of special concern. these properties, which are customarily identified as genuine grounds of discrimination, are also at the forefront of constructionist efforts to understand reality as a product of social interactions. theories of discrimination have so far neglected the important question of how understanding the nature of these properties impacts our theoretical views of the kind of phenomenon discrimination is. this article outlines some pitfalls of assuming away complexities regarding the ontology of the underlying properties, and systematically develops a constructionist account of discrimination, which i call discrimination without traits. i argue pursuing a constructionist view of grounds reveals discrimination to be not a discrete process involving a discriminator and a victim, but an ongoing process of (re)negotiating social reality that is fundamentally political. this uncovers neglected avenues for designing political remedies to discrimination. 21. title: women also know stuff: challenging the gender gap in political sophistication authors: patrick w. kraft abstract: this article proposes a simple but powerful framework to measure political sophistication based on open-ended survey responses. discursive sophistication uses automated text analysis methods to capture the complexity of individual attitude expression. i validate the approach by comparing it to conventional political knowledge metrics using different batteries of open-ended items across five surveys spanning four languages (total $ n\approx 35,000 $). the new measure casts doubt on the oft-cited gender gap in political knowledge: women might know fewer facts about institutions and elites, but they do not differ substantively in the sophistication of their expressed political attitudes. 22. title: the geography of racially polarized voting: calibrating surveys at the district level authors: shiro kuriwaki, stephen ansolabehere, angelo dagonel, soichiro yamauchi abstract: debates over racial voting, and over policies to combat vote dilution, turn on the extent to which groups� voting preferences differ and vary across geography. we present the first study of racial voting patterns in every congressional district (cd) in the united states. using large-sample surveys combined with aggregate demographic and election data, we find that national-level differences across racial groups explain 60% of the variation in district-level voting patterns, whereas geography explains 30%. black voters consistently choose democratic candidates across districts, whereas hispanic and white voters� preferences vary considerably across geography. districts with the highest racial polarization are concentrated in the parts of the south and midwest. importantly, multiracial coalitions have become the norm: in most cds, the winning majority requires support from non-white voters. in arriving at these conclusions, we make methodological innovations that improve the precision and accuracy when modeling sparse survey data. 23. title: can racial diversity among judges affect sentencing outcomes? authors: allison p. harris abstract: how does racial diversity impact institutional outcomes and (in)equality? discussions about diversity usually focus on how individuals� identities shape their behavior, but diversity is a group-level characteristic. scholars must, therefore, consider the relationship between group composition and the individual decisions that shape institutional outcomes. using felony data from a large u.s. court system, i explore the relationship between racial diversity among the judges comprising a court and individual judges� decisions. i find that as the percent of black judges in a courthouse increases white judges are less likely to render incarceration sentences in cases with black defendants. increases in racial diversity decrease the black�white gap in the probability of incarceration by up to 7 percentage points. however, i find no relationship between judge�s racial identities and disparities in their decisions. this study highlights the importance of conceptualizing diversity as a group characteristic and the relationship between institutional context and outcomes. 24. title: how partisan is local election administration? authors: joshua ferrer, igor geyn, daniel m. thompson abstract: in the united states, elections are often administered by directly elected local officials who run as members of a political party. do these officials use their office to give their party an edge in elections? using a newly collected dataset of nearly 5,900 clerk elections and a close-election regression discontinuity design, we compare counties that narrowly elect a democratic election administrator to those that narrowly elect a republican. we find that democrats and republicans serving similar counties oversee similar election results, turnout, and policies. we also find that reelection is not the primary moderating force on clerks. instead, clerks may be more likely to agree on election policies across parties than the general public and selecting different election policies may only modestly affect outcomes. while we cannot rule out small effects that nevertheless tip close elections, our results imply that clerks are not typically and noticeably advantaging their preferred party. 25. title: civic responses to police violence authors: desmond ang, jonathan tebes abstract: roughly a thousand people are killed by american law enforcement officers each year, accounting for more than 5% of all homicides. we estimate the causal impact of these events on civic engagement. exploiting hyperlocal variation in how close residents live to a killing, we find that exposure to police violence leads to significant increases in registrations and votes. these effects are driven entirely by black and hispanic citizens and are largest for killings of unarmed individuals. we find corresponding increases in support for criminal justice reforms, suggesting that police violence may cause voters to politically mobilize against perceived injustice. 26. title: the long-term effects of neighborhood disadvantage on voting behavior: the �moving to opportunity� experiment authors: elizabeth mitchell elder, ryan d. enos, tali mendelberg abstract: socioeconomic disadvantage is a major correlate of low political participation. this association is among the most robust findings in political science. however, it is based largely on observational data. the causal effects of early-life disadvantage in particular are even less understood, because long-term data on the political consequences of randomized early-life anti-poverty interventions is nearly nonexistent. we leverage the moving to opportunity (mto) experiment to test the long-term effect of moving out of disadvantaged neighborhoods�and thus out of deep poverty�on turnout. mto is one of the most ambitious anti-poverty experiments ever implemented in the united states. although mto ameliorated children�s poverty long term, we find that, contrary to expectations, the intervention did not increase children�s likelihood of voting later in life. additional tests show the program did not ameliorate their poverty enough to affect turnout. these findings speak to the complex relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and low political participation. 27. title: the slaughter-house dissents and the reconstruction of american liberalism authors: pamela brandwein abstract: american liberalism has long been divided between early �classic� and modern forms, a transformation associated with the rise of the social welfare state and the new deal. the long-running critique of hartzian consensus theory has left intact that division, which is likewise expressed in literature on the reconstruction amendments. this article offers a new staged theory of american liberal development in the nineteenth century, accomplished through the prism of public law. newly elaborating and theorizing the governing frameworks of the antebellum �well-regulated society� and reading judicial disagreement in the slaughter-house cases (1873, 83 u.s. 36) in terms of these institutional frameworks, i show how the dual liberty paradigm of the well-regulated society was rearranged in bradley�s dissent. by elevating a conceptual split between the dissents of field and bradley and by tracing in bradley�s dissent the reorganization of police powers jurisprudence, i illuminate the fashioning and rapid diffusion of modern rights individualism. 28. title: what do americans want from (private) government? experimental evidence demonstrates that americans want workplace democracy authors: soumyajit mazumder, alan n. yan abstract: a majority of americans spend a substantial amount of time at work where they have little to no say over many issues�a phenomenon that philosophers have likened to a �private government� that resembles a dictatorship. is this because americans are indifferent to or even prefer to work for firms that resemble dictatorships? to answer this question, we field a conjoint experiment on a nationally-representative sample of americans to isolate public preferences over �corporate regime type.� we find that americans prefer workplace democracy. in a second experiment, we find that most americans support workplace democracy even after being exposed to framing emphasizing democratization�s costs. the results suggest that social scientists must look beyond public opinion to understand the lack of workplace democracy in the united states. this article forges new ground by applying a political science lens to corporate governance�a field ripe with politics but bereft of political science. 29. title: do politicians outside the united states also think voters are more conservative than they really are? authors: jean-benoit pilet, lior sheffer, luzia helfer, frederic varone, rens vliegenthart, stefaan walgrave abstract: in an influential recent study, broockman and skovron (2018) found that american politicians consistently overestimate the conservativeness of their constituents on a host of issues. whether this conservative bias in politicians� perceptions of public opinion is a uniquely american phenomenon is an open question with broad implications for the quality and nature of democratic representation. we investigate it in four democracies: belgium, canada, germany, and switzerland. despite these countries having political systems that differ greatly, we document a strong and persistent conservative bias held by a majority of the 866 representatives interviewed. our findings highlight the conservative bias in elites� perception of public opinion as a widespread regularity and point toward a pressing need for further research on its sources and impacts. 30. title: endogenous popularity: how perceptions of support affect the popularity of authoritarian regimes authors: noah buckley, kyle l. marquardt, ora john reuter, katerina tertytchnaya abstract: being popular makes it easier for dictators to govern. a growing body of scholarship therefore focuses on the factors that influence authoritarian popularity. however, it is possible that the perception of popularity itself affects incumbent approval in autocracies. we use framing experiments embedded in four surveys in russia to examine this phenomenon. these experiments reveal that manipulating information�and thereby perceptions�about russian president vladimir putin�s popularity can significantly affect respondents� support for him. additional analyses, which rely on a novel combination of framing and list experiments, indicate that these changes in support are not due to preference falsification, but are in fact genuine. this study has implications for research on support for authoritarian leaders and defection cascades in nondemocratic regimes. 31. title: demographic regulation and the state: centering gender in our understanding of political order in early modern european states authors: michelle d�arcy abstract: the literature on early modern state-building in europe has focused on war as its main driver and therefore on states� relationships with men. feminist scholars have critiqued the weberian conceptions this literature relies on as being gender biased. i suggest an alternative theoretical starting point for theories of early modern state-building: the political imperatives created by the demographic fluctuations of the malthusian trap. harnessing foucault�s concept of biopower and its application to the construction of gender, i argue that population fluctuations incentivized demographic regulation, in particular of childbearing, in order to keep birth rates high and maternal and infant mortality low, implying that early modern european states were constituted through the construction and maintenance of gender regimes. i propose strategies for empirical investigation and argue that a more accurate account of early modern european state-building needs to incorporate demographic regulation and therefore requires gender to be at its center. 32. title: misclassification and bias in predictions of individual ethnicity from administrative records authors: lisa p. argyle, michael barber abstract: we show that a common method of predicting individuals� race in administrative records, bayesian improved surname geocoding (bisg), produces misclassification errors that are strongly correlated with demographic and socioeconomic factors. in addition to the high error rates for some racial subgroups, the misclassification rates are correlated with the political and economic characteristics of a voter�s neighborhood. racial and ethnic minorities who live in wealthy, highly educated, and politically active areas are most likely to be misclassified as white by bisg. inferences about the relationship between sociodemographic factors and political outcomes, like voting, are likely to be biased in models using bisg to infer race. we develop an improved method in which the bisg estimates are incorporated into a machine learning model that accounts for class imbalance and incorporates individual and neighborhood characteristics. our model decreases the misclassification rates among non-white individuals, in some cases by as much as 50%. 33. title: who shapes the law? gender and racial bias in judicial citations authors: john szmer, laura p. moyer, susan b. haire, robert k. christensen abstract: in this letter, we assess whether the contributions of judges from underrepresented groups are undervalued or overlooked, thereby reducing these judges� influence on legal policy. drawing on an original dataset of discretionary citations to over 2,000 published federal appellate decisions, we find that the majority of opinions written by female judges receive less attention from other courts than those by similarly situated men and that this is largely attributable to disparities in citing black women and latinas. we also find that additional efforts by black and latinx judges to ground their opinions in precedent yield a much lower rate of return in subsequent citations by outside circuits than comparable work by white men and women judges. this suggests that, despite gains in diversification in the federal judiciary, stereotypes about social identities will play a powerful role in determining whose ideas receive recognition. 34. title: social capital, institutional rules, and constitutional amendment rates authors: william d. blake, joseph francesco cozza, david a. armstrong ii, amanda friesen abstract: why are some constitutions amended more frequently than others? the literature provides few clear answers, as some scholars focus on institutional factors, whereas others emphasize amendment culture. we bridge this divide with new theoretical and empirical insights. using data from democratic constitutions worldwide and u.s. state constitutions, we examine how social capital reduces the transaction costs imposed by amendment rules. the results indicate that constitutional rigidity decreases amendment frequency, but group membership, civic activism, and political trust can offset the effect of amendment rules. our findings have important implications for scholars in public law, constitutional and democratic theory, and social movements. 35. title: introducing hiscod: a new gateway for the study of historical social conflict authors: c�dric chambru, paul maneuvrier-hervieu abstract: the historical social conflict database (hiscod) is an ongoing project designed to provide to scholars and society at large with a set of resources for analyzing social conflict from the middle ages to the second half of the nineteenth century (c. 1000�c. 1870). based on original archival research and existing repositories, the aim is to provide a global database of social conflict in past societies by collecting, aggregating, documenting, and harmonizing instances of conflict. as of today, the database con%&-089;>acdegp��ʸʧʸ��um`rd7rhj�5�ojqj^jo(hy/�hy/�5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h!@�5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj hy/�5�cjojqj^jajo(#hy/�hy/�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj 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