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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�/fbjbj�n�n2��a��a!^ ��::��8\m�rsl��r�r�r�r�r�r�r$�t�tw<�r��r��4s}}}��r}��r}}}�� t��g(}�r"s0rs}�wo:�w}}0�w��o0��}��r�r��rs��w��:q�: risk analysis volume 42, issue 5, may 2022 1. title: the �inherent vices� of policy design: uncertainty, maliciousness, and noncompliance authors: michael howlett, ching leong abstract: policy designs must not only �work� in the sense of accomplishing their goals but must also work in their intended fashion. most research to date has focused on the former topic and dwells on the technical aspects of how various tools and instruments could be utilized to achieve the aims and goals of policymakers. this branch of research tends to underemphasize the difficulties inherent to policy making including policy contexts that are often highly uncertain, policymakers who fall short of an idealized version of high capacity, well-intentioned decisionmakers grappling with relevant public problems, and policy-takers who fail to comply with government wishes. these �inherent vices� of policy making are factors which contribute to policy volatility or the risk of policy failure. the paper stresses the need for improved risk management and mitigation strategies in policy formulation and policy designs to take these risks into account. it sets out and develops an approach borrowed from product failure management (in manufacturing) and portfolio management (in finance) to help better assess and manage these risks. 2. title: prioritization of resilience initiatives for climate-related disasters in the metropolitan city of venice authors: marta bonato, beatrice sambo, anna sperotto, james h. lambert, igor linkov, andrea critto, silvia torresan, antonio marcomini abstract: increases in the magnitude and frequency of climate and other disruptive factors are placing environmental, economic, and social stresses on coastal systems. this is further exacerbated by land use transformations, urbanization, over-tourism, sociopolitical tensions, technological innovations, among others. a scenario-informed multicriteria decision analysis (mcda) was applied in the metropolitan city of venice integrating qualitative (i.e., local stakeholder preferences) and quantitative information (i.e., climate-change projections) with the aim of enhancing system resilience to multiple climate-related threats. as part of this analysis, different groups of local stakeholders (e.g., local authorities, civil protection agencies, smes, ngos) were asked to identify critical functions that needs to be sustained. various policy initiatives were considered to support these critical functions. the mcda was used to rank the initiatives across several scenarios describing main climate threats (e.g., storm surges, floods, heatwaves, drought). we found that many climate change scenarios were considered to be disruptive to stakeholders and influence alternative ranking. the management alternatives acting on physical domain generally enhance resilience across just a few scenarios while cognitive and informative initiatives provided resilience enhancement across most scenarios considered. with uncertainty of multiple stressors along with projected climate variability, a portfolio of cognitive and physical initiatives is recommended to enhance resilience. 3. title: quantitative risk assessments of hepatitis a virus and hepatitis e virus from raw oyster consumption authors: kriangsak ruchusatsawat, chackrit nuengjamnong, apiwat tawatsin, laddawan thiemsing, chonthicha kawidam, naraporn somboonna, suphachai nuanualsuwan abstract: a quantitative risk assessment of hepatitis a virus (hav) and hepatitis e virus (hev) from raw oyster consumption from farm and retail was evaluated over three seasons. this risk assessment comprises four steps: hazard identification, dose�response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. we used probabilistic models for prevalence, concentration, and oyster consumption. hev dose�response (dr) model based on hev dosing in chimpanzees and used to perform a dose�response assessment of hev was proposed. both hav and hev were simultaneously enumerated by real-time pcr to determine viral doses. the probabilistic prevalences of hav and hev were in the ranges of 8�20% and 8�40%, respectively. the best-fit dr model was the beta-poisson with alpha and n50 equal to 216.9 and 3.03 � 107, respectively. after running the monte carlo simulation, the annual cases of foodborne hepatitis a and hepatitis e from raw oyster consumption from farms were 9,264�17,526 and 1�604, respectively, while those at retail were 7,694�14,591 and 1�204, respectively. this study suggested that consuming farm oysters poses a significantly higher risk of hepatitis a than hepatitis e. the best-fit dr model for hev developed in this study could determine risks of hepatitis e from raw oyster consumption in thailand. 4. title: evaluation of potential impacts of free chlorine during washing of fresh-cut leafy greens on escherichia coli o157:h7 cross-contamination and risk of illness authors: amir mokhtari, hao pang, sofia santillana farakos, gordon r. davidson, elizabeth noelia williams, jane m. van doren abstract: addition of chlorine-based antimicrobial substances to fresh-cut leafy green wash water is done to minimize microbial cross-contamination during processing. we developed the fda leafy green risk assessment model (fda-lgram) to quantify the impact of free chlorine concentration in wash water during fresh-cut lettuce processing on the extent of water-mediated cross-contamination between shredded lettuce and the associated risk of illness due to exposure to escherichia coli o157:h7. at different contamination prevalence and levels of e. coli o157:h7 on incoming lettuce heads, the model compared the predicted prevalence of contaminated fresh-cut lettuce packages and the risk of illness per serving between: (1) a scenario where fresh-cut lettuce was packaged without washing; and (2) scenarios involving washing fresh-cut lettuce with different levels of free chlorine (0 ppm, 5 ppm, 10 ppm, 15 ppm, and 20 ppm) prior to packaging. our results indicate that the free chlorine level in wash water has a substantial impact on the predicted prevalence of contaminated fresh-cut lettuce packages and the risk of illness associated with e. coli o157:h7 in fresh-cut lettuce. results showed that the required level of free chlorine that can minimize water-mediated cross-contamination and reduce the corresponding risk of illness depended on contamination prevalence and levels of e. coli o157:h7 on incoming lettuce heads. our model also indicated that the pathogen inactivation rate in wash water via free chlorine was a key model parameter that had a significant impact on the extent of cross-contamination during washing and the predicted associated risk of illness. 5. title: spread of nontyphoidal salmonella in the beef supply chain in northern tanzania: sensitivity in a probabilistic model integrating microbiological data and data from stakeholder interviews authors: ruth n. zadoks, gary c. barker, jackie benschop, kathryn j. allan, gemma chaters, sarah cleaveland, john a. crump, margaret a. davis, blandina t. mmbaga, gerard prinsen, kate m. thomas, linda waldman, nigel p. french abstract: east africa is a hotspot for foodborne diseases, including infection by nontyphoidal salmonella (nts), a zoonotic pathogen that may originate from livestock. urbanization and increased demand for animal protein drive intensification of livestock production and food processing, creating risks and opportunities for food safety. we built a probabilistic mathematical model, informed by prior beliefs and dedicated stakeholder interviews and microbiological research, to describe sources and prevalence of nts along the beef supply chain in moshi, tanzania. the supply chain was conceptualized using a bow tie model, with terminal livestock markets as pinch point, and a forked pathway postmarket to compare traditional and emerging supply chains. nts was detected in 36 (7.7%) of 467 samples throughout the supply chain. after combining prior belief and observational data, marginal estimates of true nts prevalence were 4% in feces of cattle entering the beef supply and 20% in raw meat at butcheries. based on our model and sensitivity analyses, true nts prevalence was not significantly different between supply chains. environmental contamination, associated with butchers and vendors, was estimated to be the most likely source of nts in meat for human consumption. the model provides a framework for assessing the origin and propagation of nts along meat supply chains. it can be used to inform decision making when economic factors cause changes in beef production and consumption, such as where to target interventions to reduce risks to consumers. through sensitivity and value of information analyses, the model also helps to prioritize investment in additional research. 6. title: risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (pahs) in smoked sardinella sp. in ghana: impact of an improved oven on public health protection authors: kennedy bomfeh, liesbeth jacxsens, wisdom kofi amoa-awua, esther garrido gamarro, yvette diei ouadi, bruno de meulenaer abstract: an improved fish smoking oven called fao-thiaroye technique (ftt) has been introduced in ghana and other countries in the global south as a technical intervention for the high levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (pahs) in traditionally smoked fish produced in those regions. this study evaluated the extent to which the intervention reduces consumer exposure to pahs (considering benzo(a)pyrene [bap] as a marker) in smoked fish, using ghana as a case. smoked sardinella sp. were sampled from two traditional ovens (chorkor smoker and metal drum oven) and the ftt and their pah levels were determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. samples of the product were also purchased from informal markets in three selected regions of ghana and analyzed for their pah levels. cross-sectional consumer surveys were conducted in the selected regions to determine intakes of the commodity. a probabilistic risk assessment of pah was then done by the margin of exposure (moe) approach. bap moe as low as 1,060 and 752 were obtained for products from the traditional ovens and the informal markets, respectively, whereas the lowest value for ftt products was approximately 161,000. moe values less than 10,000 were considered to denote a serious public health concern requiring risk management action. therefore, the findings suggest that there is a potential health concern of high consumer exposure to pahs in traditionally smoked fish in ghana, and that the ftt is a technically viable intervention for the problem. 7. title: how people understand risk matrices, and how matrix design can improve their use: findings from randomized controlled studies authors: holly sutherland, gabriel recchia, sarah dryhurst, alexandra l.j. freeman abstract: risk matrices are a common way to communicate the likelihood and potential impacts of a variety of risks. until now, there has been little empirical work on their effectiveness in supporting understanding and decision making, and on how different design choices affect these. in this pair of online experiments (total n = 2699), we show that risk matrices are not always superior to text for the presentation of risk information, and that a nonlinear/geometric labeling scheme helps matrix comprehension (when the likelihood/impact scales are nonlinear). to a lesser degree, results suggested that changing the shape of the matrix so that cells increase in size nonlinearly facilitates comprehension as compared to text alone, and that comprehension might be enhanced by integrating further details about the likelihood and impact onto the axes of the matrix rather than putting them in a separate key. these changes did not affect participants� preference for reducing impact over reducing likelihood when making decisions about risk mitigation. we recommend that designers of risk matrices consider these changes to facilitate better understanding of relationships among risks. 8. title: the effect of perceived threats and response efficacy on adaptation to smog: an instrumental variables design authors: kaddour mehiriz, pierre gosselin abstract: threats and response efficacyperceptions are core conceptsof the protection motivationtheory, and recent years have witnessed a considerable growth of research on the effect of thesefactors on adaptation to air pollution. however, few studies use appropriate designs to deal with endogeneity issues, a situation that raises serious questions on the validity of their findings. to overcome this problem, this study uses the instrumental variables method to test the effect of perceived threats and response efficacy on adaptation to smog episodes. the results of this study show that the conjunction of a moderate to high perception of threats with a high perception of response efficacy is positively associated with the adoption of the recommended behavior. the increase of perceived threats does not seem to have an effect on the behavior of individuals with low response efficacy perception. moreover, change in perceived response efficacy does not lead to any change in the behavior of individuals with low threat perceptions. concerning policy implications, this study suggests that smog warnings and health communication campaigns could be more effective if they provide accurate information simultaneously on air pollution level, its adverse effects, and advice on how to mitigate these effects. 9. title: a burning concern: family forest owner wildfire concerns across regions, scales, and owner characteristics authors: brian danley, jesse caputo, brett j. butler abstract: while there is a large literature on how individual homeowners perceive location-specific wildfire hazard, there is only one study specific to u.s. family forest owners. using respondents from the united states department of agriculture (usda) forest service's national woodland owner survey of family forest ownerships in the united states, we investigate the relationship between landowners� wildfire concerns and biophysical wildfire hazard across the contiguous united states. as a measure of long-term conditions for high intensity wildfire, we use the usda forest service's wildfire hazard potential index as our key variable of interest. we test six ways of aggregating wildfire hazard potential using 1-, 10-, and 100-mile (1.6, 16, and 160 km) radii buffers with linear and logistic specifications for hazard potential. results show the log of wildfire hazard potential is the best fit for modeling wildfire hazard concerns. respondents in the western united states have a higher baseline level of concern but are not necessarily more sensitive to the hazard spectrum compared to respondents in the north. respondents in the southern united states have a lower sensitivity to the hazard spectrum compared to respondents in the north and west. using predicted probabilities at the means, we also compute regional prevalence ratios to compare the impact of biophysical wildfire hazard to the relative impact of other important variables. various property and owner characteristics not related to biophysical hazard potential, such as emotion, receiving information about wildfire, and the presence of a house on the property are determinants of wildfire concern in some, but not all regions of the united states. 10. title: i think, therefore i act: the influence of critical reasoning ability on trust and behavior during the covid-19 pandemic authors: alex segr� cohen, lauren lutzke, caitlin drummond otten, joseph �rvai abstract: actively open-minded thinking (aot) operates in three dimensions: it serves as a norm accounting for how one should search for and use information in judgment and decision making; it is a thinking style that one may adopt in accordance with the norm; and it sets standards for evaluating the thinking of others, particularly the trustworthiness of sources that claim authority. with the first and third dimensions in mind, we explore how aot influences trust in public health experts, risk perceptions, and compliance with recommended behaviors aimed at slowing the spread and severity of the covid-19 pandemic. using survey data from a nationally representative sample of americans (n = 857), we tested whether aot will lead people to place greater trust public health experts (h1). because these experts have been consistently messaging that covid-19 is a real and serious threat to public health, we also hypothesized that trust in experts would be positively associated with high perceived risk (h2), which should have a positive influence on (self-reported) compliance with cdc recommendations (h3). and because aot is a self-directed thinking style, we also expected it to directly influence risk perceptions and, by extension, compliance (h4). our results support all four hypotheses. we discuss the implications of these results for how risk communication and risk management efforts are designed and practiced. 11. title: multistage attack�defense graph game analysis for protection resources allocation optimization against cyber attacks considering rationality evolution authors: chengwu shao, yan-fu li abstract: cyber vulnerabilities become ever more critical in modern industrial systems since the attacker can utilize the vulnerabilities to degrade their performance or even cause disasters. in 2015, a series of sequential and well-organized cyber attacks intruded into the ukrainian power grid, compromised access to the control system, and interrupted the power supply system, finally causing a widespread power outage. to assist the defender, e.g., power grid operator, to allocate protection resources against cyber attacks, existing studies have devoted considerable efforts to risk and reliability analysis and interaction analysis using game theory. the defender's protection strategy includes preevent defense strategy and postevent repair strategy. the strategy spaces of both players were static in previous studies. however, facing ukrainian-style cyber attacks, the strategy spaces could variate during the attacker�defender confrontation. in other words, the vulnerability compromised by the attacker in one stage could expose the subsequential vulnerabilities, leading to the change of strategy spaces. in this work, a multistage attack�defense graph game model is proposed to assist the defender in allocating protection resources optimally against sequential cyber attacks during multiple stages. in addition, we consider the existence of the rationality evolution of the attacker, which mainly results from asymmetric information, capacity limitation, and progressive learning during the confrontation. compared to previous studies based on static strategy spaces and static rationalities, our model is more practical and effective in dealing with ukrainian-style cyber attacks. the simulation results show the superiority of our approach, and some notable observations and practical suggestions are summarized for the defender. 12. title: managing physical and economic risk for systems with multidirectional network interdependencies authors: unal tatar, joost r. santos, shital a. thekdi abstract: critical infrastructure networks, such as transportation and supply chains, are becoming increasingly interdependent. as the operability of network nodes relies on the operability of connected nodes, network disruptions have the potential to spread across entire networks, having catastrophic consequences in the realms of physical network performance and also economic performance. while risk-informed physical network models and economic models have been well-studied in the literature, there is limited study of how physical features of network performance interact with sector-specific economic performance, particularly as these physical networks recover from disruptions of varying durations. in this article, we create a generalizable framework for integrating functional dependency network analysis (fdna) and dynamic inoperability input�output models (diim), to assess the extent to which disruptions to critical infrastructure could degrade its functionality over a period of time. we demonstrate the framework using disruptive scenarios for a critical transportation network in virginia, usa. we consider scenarios involving: (a) mild case that is relatively more frequent such as recurring traffic conditions; (b) moderate case involving an incident with a multihour delay, and (c) severe case that is relatively less frequent such as evacuation after a major hurricane. the results will be useful for network managers, policymakers, and stakeholders who are seeking to invest in risk mitigation for network functionality and economic activity. 13. title: decision support architectures for the recovery of interdependent infrastructure with large-scale damage and socially vulnerable populations authors: krista rand, minghui sun, cody h. fleming abstract: infrastructure damage has household-level consequences after a major disaster. losses are experienced due to factors such as unavailable services and impaired mobility. socially vulnerable residents, in particular, have few resources with which to adapt. decision support tools for making justifiable, transparent, repeatable decisions that center the needs of users during recovery are currently nonexistent. in part, this is because infrastructure recovery is a complex process, often involving the coordination of multiple entities. the recovery problem can be rendered more tractable by applying tools suitable for modeling complex systems and processes. system theoretic process analysis (stpa) can be used for goalsetting in a complex, dynamic system such as community civil infrastructure. stpa is used here to devise a decision support tool architecture suitable for coordinated multiagency recovery efforts. the example application is a long-term recovery process with widespread infrastructure damage, population displacement, and other disruptions in system use due to a major disaster. in the example, losses and hazards are defined to reflect recovery challenges commonly faced by vulnerable populations experiencing partial or total displacement. this extension of stpa then reverses these hazards, starting with the most hazardous system states and progressing sequentially to less hazardous states until recovery is complete. 14. title: order matters: the benefits of ordinal fragility curves for damage and loss estimation authors: michele nguyen, david lallemant abstract: probabilistic loss assessments from natural hazards require the quantification of structural vulnerability. building damage data can be used to estimate fragility curves to obtain realistic descriptions of the relationship between a hazard intensity measure and the probability of exceeding certain damage grades. fragility curves based on the lognormal cumulative distribution function are popular because of their empirical performance as well as theoretical properties. when we are interested in estimating exceedance probabilities for multiple damage grades, these are usually derived per damage grade via separate probit regressions. however, they can also be obtained simultaneously through an ordinal model which treats the damage grades as ordered and related instead of nominal and distinct. when we use nominal models, a collapse fragility curve is constructed by treating data of �near-collapse� and �no damage� the same: as data of noncollapse. this leads to a loss of information. using synthetic data as well as real-life data from the 2015 nepal earthquake, we provide one of the first formal demonstrations of multiple advantages of the ordinal model over the nominal approach. we show that modeling the ordering of damage grades explicitly through an ordinal model leads to higher sensitivity to the data, parsimony and a lower risk of overfitting, noncrossing fragility curves, and lower associated uncertainty. 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