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volume 112, issue 10, october 2022
1. title: persistent overconfidence and biased memory: evidence from managers.
authors: huffman, david; raymond, collin; shvets, julia.
abstract: a long-standing puzzle is how overconfidence can persist in settings characterized by repeated feedback. this paper studies managers who participate repeatedly in a high-powered tournament incentive system, learning relative performance each time. using reduced form and structural methods we find that (i) managers make overconfident predictions about future performance; (ii) managers have overly positive memories of past performance; (iii) the two phenomena are linked at an individual level. our results are consistent with models of motivated beliefs in which individuals are motivated to distort memories of feedback and preserve unrealistic expectations.
2. title: religious festivals and economic development: evidence from the timing of mexican saint day festivals.
authors: montero, eduardo; dean yang.
abstract: does variation in how religious festivals are celebrated have economic consequences? we study the economic impacts of the timing of catholic patron saint day festivals in mexico. for causal identification, we exploit cross-locality variation in festival dates and in the timing of agricultural seasons. we estimate the impact of "agriculturally coinciding" festivals (those coinciding with peak planting or harvest months) on long-run economic development of localities. agriculturally coinciding festivals lead to lower household income and worse development outcomes overall. these negative effects are likely due to lower agricultural productivity, which inhibits structural transformation out of agriculture. agriculturally coinciding festivals may nonetheless persist because they also lead to higher religiosity and social capital.
3. title: posterior separable cost of information.
authors: tommaso denti.
abstract: we provide testable conditions under which the cost of acquiring information is given by the expected reduction of a measure of uncertainty (e.g., entropy). the assumption, under the name of posterior separability, is nearly universal in the literature of rational inattention; yet, a testable characterization has been lacking. in applications to experimental data, we indicate situations in which posterior separability is--and is not--a compelling assumption for the cost of information; we propose a generalization to address some of its shortcomings. we also show how to identify and estimate nonparametrically the cost of information from observable choice behavior.
4. title: valid t-ratio inference for iv.
authors: lee, david s.; mccrary, justin; moreira, marcelo j.; porter, jack.
abstract: in the single-iv model, researchers commonly rely on t-ratio-based inference, even though the literature has quantified its potentially severe large-sample distortions. building on stock and yogo (2005), we introduce the tf critical value function, leading to a standard error adjustment that is a smooth function of the first-stage f-statistic. for one-quarter of specifications in 61 aer papers, corrected standard errors are at least 49 and 136 percent larger than conventional 2sls standard errors at the 5 percent and 1 percent significance levels, respectively. tf confidence intervals have shorter expected length than those of anderson and rubin (1949), whenever both are bounded.
5. title: credit, attention, and externalities in the adoption of energy efficient technologies by low-income households.
authors: berkouwer, susanna b.; dean, joshua t.
abstract: we study an energy efficient charcoal cookstove in an experiment with 1,000 households in nairobi. we estimate a 39 percent reduction in charcoal spending, which matches engineering estimates, generating a 295 percent annual return. despite fuel savings of $237 over the stove's two-year lifespan--and $295 in emissions reductions--households are only willing to pay $12. drawing attention to energy savings does not increase demand. however, a loan more than doubles willingness to pay: credit constraints prevent adoption of privately optimal technologies. energy efficient technologies could drive sustainable development by slowing greenhouse emissions while saving households money.
6. title: demagogues and the economic fragility of democracies.
authors: bernhardt, dan; krasa, stefan; shadmehr, mehdi.
abstract: we investigate the susceptibility of democracies to demagogues, studying tensions between representatives who guard voters' long-run interests and demagogues who cater to voters' short-run desires. parties propose consumption and investment. voters base choices on current-period consumption and valence shocks. younger/poorer economies and economically disadvantaged voters are attracted to the demagogue's disinvestment policies, forcing farsighted representatives to mimic them. this electoral competition can destroy democracy: if capital falls below a critical level, a death spiral ensues with capital stocks falling thereafter. we identify when economic development mitigates this risk and characterize how the death-spiral risk declines as capital grows large.
7. title: fake news, voter overconfidence, and the quality of democratic choice.
authors: kartal, melis; tyran, jean-robert.
abstract: this paper studies, theoretically and experimentally, the effects of overconfidence and fake news on information aggregation and the quality of democratic choice in a common-interest setting. we theoretically show that overconfidence exacerbates the adverse effects of widespread misinformation (i.e., fake news). we then analyze richer models that allow for partisanship, targeted misinformation intended to sway public opinion, and news signals correlated across voters (due to media ownership concentration or censorship). in our experiment, overconfidence severely undermines information aggregation, suggesting that the effect of overconfidence can be much more pronounced at the collective than at the individual level.
8. title: reference dependence in the housing market.
authors: andersen, steffen; badarinza, cristian; liu, lu; marx, julie; ramadorai, tarun.
abstract: we quantify reference dependence and loss aversion in the housing market using rich danish administrative data. our structural model includes loss aversion, reference dependence, financial constraints, and a sale decision, and matches key nonparametric moments, including a "hockey stick" in listing prices with nominal gains, and bunching at zero realized nominal gains. households derive substantial utility from gains over the original house purchase price; losses affect households roughly 2.5 times more than gains. the model helps explain the positive correlation between aggregate house prices and turnover, but cannot explain visible attenuation in reference dependence when households are more financially constrained.
9. title: how merchant towns shaped parliaments: from the norman conquest of england to the great reform act.
authors: angelucci, charles; meraglia, simone; voigtl�nder, nico.
abstract: we study the emergence of urban self-governance in the late medieval period. we focus on england after the norman conquest of 1066, building a novel comprehensive dataset of 554 medieval towns. during the commercial revolution (twelfth to thirteenth centuries), many merchant towns obtained farm grants: the right of self-governed tax collection and law enforcement. self-governance, in turn, was a stepping stone for parliamentary representation: farm grant towns were much more likely to be summoned directly to the medieval english parliament than otherwise similar towns. we also show that self-governed towns strengthened the role of parliament and shaped national institutions over the subsequent centuries.
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