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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�΂bjbj�n�n2��a��a�z ��""��8��,��sl��esgsgsgsgsgsgs$2u��wfks�ks��4�s�� es�es��unz��(�1s�s0�s�.xgf.x��<4.x�-p�ksks�d�s��.x"qs: the american political science review volume 116, issue 3, august 2022 1. title: coming out to vote: the construction of a lesbian and gay electoral constituency in the united states authors: andrew proctor abstract: using the formation of a lesbian and gay electoral constituency as a case, this article demonstrates how activists and party elites contest and construct collective identities and groups. activist�party interactions produce identity-building feedback that recognizes some groups and identities and rejects others, creating conditions for people to see themselves as partisans. i call this process �constitutive group mobilization.� i find that, when party actors affirmed civil rights and libertarian constructions of lesbian and gay people and politics, mobilization was relatively bipartisan. republicans� emerging alliance with the christian right, however, brought activists to form the national association of lesbian and gay democratic clubs, crystallizing civil rights as the dominant linkage to partisanship. these developments reveal how groups and identities form endogenously to parties rather than entering the party system as preformed entities with fixed interests and partisanship. thus, the lesbian and gay case provides insights about group and identity formation previously overlooked in party and lgbt politics scholarship. 2. title: enfranchisement and incarceration after the 1965 voting rights act authors: nicholas eubank, adriane fresh abstract: the 1965 voting rights act (vra) fundamentally changed the distribution of electoral power in the us south. we examine the consequences of this mass enfranchisement of black people for the use of the carceral state�police, the courts, and the prison system. we study the extent to which white communities in the us south responded to the end of jim crow by increasing the incarceration of black people. we test this with new historical data on state and county prison intake data by race (~1940�1985) in a series of difference-in-differences designs. we find that states covered by section 5 of the vra experienced a differential increase in black prison admissions relative to those that were not covered and that incarceration varied systematically in proportion to the electoral threat posed by black voters. our findings indicate the potentially perverse consequences of enfranchisement when establishment power seeks�and finds�other outlets of social and political control. 3. title: violence and voting in the united states: how school shootings affect elections authors: laura garc�a-montoya, ana arjona, matthew lacombe abstract: how do citizens change their voting decisions after their communities experience catastrophic violent events? the literature on the behavioral effects of violence, on the one hand, and on political behavior, on the other, suggest different answers to this question. using a difference-in-differences approach, we investigate the influence of indiscriminate, rampage-style school shootings on both voter turnout levels and the relative electoral support for the democratic and republican parties at the county level in us presidential elections (1980�2016). we find that although voter turnout does not change, the vote share of the democratic party increases by an average of nearly 5 percentage points in counties that experienced shootings�a remarkable shift in an age of partisan polarization and close presidential elections. these results show that school shootings do have important electoral consequences and bring to the fore the need to further examine the effects of different forms of violence on political behavior. 4. title: electoral responsiveness in closed autocracies: evidence from petitions in the former german democratic republic authors: hans lueders abstract: contested elections are usually seen as precondition for constituent responsiveness. by contrast, i show that even uncontested elections can create incentives for autocratic regimes to address citizen demands. i propose that closed autocracies engage in cycles of responsiveness before uncontested elections to assure citizens of their competence and raise popular support. they do so to mitigate the short-term destabilizing effects of elections. analyzing a unique dataset of petitions to the government of the former german democratic republic (gdr), i calculate that response times to petitions were up to 31% shorter before the gdr�s uncontested elections. moreover, i introduce the concept of �substantive responsiveness,� which focuses on the material consequences of responsiveness for petitioners, and show that petitions were 64% more likely to be successful. the paper advances our understanding of electoral mobilization in closed regimes and contributes to an emerging research agenda on responsiveness and accountability in autocracies. 5. title: why botter: how pro-government bots fight opposition in russia authors: denis stukal, sergey sanovich, richard bonneau, joshua a. tucker abstract: there is abundant anecdotal evidence that nondemocratic regimes are harnessing new digital technologies known as social media bots to facilitate policy goals. however, few previous attempts have been made to systematically analyze the use of bots that are aimed at a domestic audience in autocratic regimes. we develop two alternative theoretical frameworks for predicting the use of pro-regime bots: one which focuses on bot deployment in response to offline protest and the other in response to online protest. we then test the empirical implications of these frameworks with an original collection of twitter data generated by russian pro-government bots. we find that the online opposition activities produce stronger reactions from bots than offline protests. our results provide a lower bound on the effects of bots on the russian twittersphere and highlight the importance of bot detection for the study of political communication on social media in nondemocratic regimes. 6. title: policing insecurity authors: milli lake abstract: in environments of seemingly intractable conflict, how should we understand the role of state capacity building and security-sector reform in transitions to peace? prevailing wisdom suggests that a strong state security apparatus mitigates cyclical violence and aids in transitions to predictable, rule-governed behavior. yet growing attention to police brutality in institutionalized democracies calls this assumption into question. drawing on a multiyear study of war making and state making in eastern dr congo, this article interrogates logics of police capacity building, analyzing how and why reform efforts intended to bolster the state�s monopoly on violence frequently fail to curb the unrest they seek to disrupt. i argue that enhancing the coercive capacity of the police can entrench a wartime political order that makes peace more elusive; when police deploy the image of the state toward destabilizing ends they reinforce the institutions of everyday war, undermining the stability a monopoly on violence is intended to build. 7. title: historical border changes, state building, and contemporary trust in europe authors: scott f abramson, david b. carter, luwei ying abstract: political borders profoundly influence outcomes central to international politics. accordingly, a growing literature shows that historical boundaries affect important macro-outcomes such as patterns of interstate disputes and trade. to explain these findings, existing theories posit that borders have persistent effects on individual-level behavior, but the literature lacks empirical evidence of such effects. combining spatial data on centuries of border changes in europe with a wide range of contemporary survey evidence, we show that historical border changes have persistent effects on two of the most politically significant aspects of behavior: individuals� political and social trust. we demonstrate that in areas where borders frequently changed, individuals are, on average, less trusting of others as well as their governments. we argue that this occurs because border changes disrupt historical state-building processes and limit the formation of interpersonal social networks, which leads to lower levels of trust. 8. title: blood is thicker than water: elite kinship networks and state building in imperial china authors: yuhua wang abstract: a long tradition in social sciences scholarship has established that kinship-based institutions undermine state building. i argue that kinship networks, when geographically dispersed, cross-cut local cleavages and align the incentives of self-interested elites in favor of building a strong state, which generates scale economies in providing protection and justice throughout a large territory. i evaluate this argument by examining elite preferences related to a state-building reform in eleventh century china. i map politicians� kinship networks using their tomb epitaphs and collect data on their political allegiances from archival materials. a statistical analysis demonstrates that a politician�s support for state building increases with the geographic size of his kinship network, controlling for a number of individual, family, and regional characteristics. my findings highlight the importance of elite social structure in facilitating state development and help to advance our understanding of state building in china�a useful, yet understudied, counterpoint to the eurocentric literature. 9. title: the colonial origins of modern territoriality: property surveying in the thirteen colonies authors: kerry goettlich abstract: most scholars agree the rise of states led to modern territoriality. yet globally the transition to precise boundaries occurred most often in colonies, and there are virtually no systematic explanations of its occurrence outside europe. this article explains how precise boundaries emerged in the earliest context where they were regularly and generally implemented: seventeenth- and eighteenth-century colonial north america. unlike explanations of modern territoriality in europe, it argues property boundary surveys became an entrenched practice on the part of settlers and were a readily available response to intercolonial boundary disputes. after independence, settlers who were accustomed to surveys pursued linear boundaries with britain, spain, and russia. moreover, the article argues that linear borders (delimited linearly and typically physically demarcated), not sovereignty, are constitutive of modern territoriality. by disentangling the literature�s eurocentric confusion between modern territoriality and sovereign statehood, the article makes possible a global comparative study of the emergence of modern territoriality. 10. title: representative democracy and colonial inspirations: the case of john stuart mill authors: shmuel lederman abstract: focusing on john stuart mill, a particularly illuminating contributor to modern democratic theory, this article examines the connections between modern democracy and the european colonial experience. it argues that mill drew on the exclusionary logic and discourse available through the colonial experience to present significant portions of the english working classes as domestic barbarians, whose potential rise to power posed a danger to civilization itself: a line of argument that helped him legitimate representative government as a democratic, rather than an antidemocratic form of government, as it had been traditionally perceived. the article contributes to our understanding of the development of modern democratic theory and practice by drawing attention to the ways the colonial experience shaped core western institutions and ways of thinking, and it makes the case that this experience remains an essential, if often unacknowledged, part of our collective �self.� 11. title: the creative advance must be defended: miscegenation, metaphysics, and race war in jan smuts�s vision of the league of nations authors: jacob kripp abstract: this paper argues that the idea of global peace in early twentieth-century liberal international order was sutured together by the threat of race war. this understanding of racial peace was institutionalized in the league of nations mandate system through its philosophical architect: jan smuts. i argue that the league figured in smuts�s thought as the culmination of the creative advance of the universe: white internationalist unification and settler colonialism was the cosmological destiny of humanity that enabled a racial peace. in smuts�s imaginary, the twin prospect of race war and miscegenation serves as the dark underside that both necessitates and threatens to undo this project. by reframing the problem of race war through his metaphysics, smuts resolves the challenge posed by race war by institutionalizing indirect rule and segregation as a project of pacification that ensured that settlement and the creative advance of the cosmos could proceed. 12. title: saving migrants� basic human rights from sovereign rule authors: lukas schmid abstract: states cannot legitimately enforce their borders against migrants if dominant conceptions of sovereignty inform enforcement because these conceptions undermine sufficient respect for migrants� basic human rights. instead, such conceptions lead states to assert total control over outsiders� potential cross-border movements to support their in-group�s self-rule. thus, although legitimacy requires states to prioritize universal respect for basic human rights, sovereign states today generally fail to do so when it comes to border enforcement. i contend that this enforcement could only be rendered legitimate if it was predicated on more desirable conceptions of sovereignty that supported the universal prioritization of basic human rights. specifically, desirable conceptions would not establish and require absolute state sovereignty over borders as a necessary precondition for true popular self-governance. 13. title: changing in-group boundaries: the effect of immigration on race relations in the united states authors: vasiliki fouka, marco tabellini abstract: how do social group boundaries evolve? does the appearance of a new out-group change the in-group�s perceptions of other out-groups? we introduce a conceptual framework of context-dependent categorization in which exposure to one minority leads to recategorization of other minorities as in- or out-groups depending on perceived distances across groups. we test this framework by studying how mexican immigration to the united states affected white americans� attitudes and behaviors toward black americans. we combine survey and crime data with a difference-in-differences design and an instrumental variables strategy. consistent with the theory, mexican immigration improves whites� racial attitudes, increases support for pro-black government policies, and lowers anti-black hate crimes while simultaneously increasing prejudice against hispanics. results generalize beyond hispanics and blacks, and a survey experiment provides direct evidence for recategorization. our findings imply that changes in the size of one group can affect the entire web of intergroup relations in diverse societies. 14. title: save the appearances! toward an arendtian environmental politics authors: laura ephraim abstract: drawing critical resources from hannah arendt, this article argues for a revaluation of the appearances of nature in environmental political theory and practice. at a time when pervasive anthropogenic contamination threatens the very survival of vulnerable communities and species, it would be wrong to revive the timeworn mythos of nature as an untrammeled beauty. instead, with arendt�s help, i advocate an environmental politics rooted in an alternative aesthetic of nature, one that respects and seeks to protect earth�s diverse lifeforms for the sake of their strange, disquieting appearances of otherness. earth�s living displays of alterity are valuable, i argue, for their propensity to upset the destructive logic of mass production and consumption and spur political action. in an arendtian frame, we can better recognize interdependence between biological and political life and appreciate the role of nonhuman lifeforms in constituting spaces of appearance where human freedom and plurality may flourish. 15. title: political legitimacy, authoritarianism, and climate change authors: ross mittiga abstract: is authoritarian power ever legitimate? the contemporary political theory literature�which largely conceptualizes legitimacy in terms of democracy or basic rights�would seem to suggest not. i argue, however, that there exists another, overlooked aspect of legitimacy concerning a government�s ability to ensure safety and security. while, under normal conditions, maintaining democracy and rights is typically compatible with guaranteeing safety, in emergency situations, conflicts between these two aspects of legitimacy can and often do arise. a salient example of this is the covid-19 pandemic, during which severe limitations on free movement and association have become legitimate techniques of government. climate change poses an even graver threat to public safety. consequently, i argue, legitimacy may require a similarly authoritarian approach. while unsettling, this suggests the political importance of climate action. for if we wish to avoid legitimating authoritarian power, we must act to prevent crises from arising that can only be resolved by such means. 16. title: labor migration and climate change adaptation authors: jamie draper abstract: social scientific evidence suggests that labor migration can increase resilience to climate change. for that reason, some have recently advocated using labor migration policy as a tool for climate adaptation. this paper engages with the normative question of whether, and under what conditions, states may permissibly use labor migration policy as a tool for climate adaptation. i argue that states may use labor migration policy as a tool for climate adaptation and may even have a duty to do so, subject to two moral constraints. first, states must also provide acceptable alternative options for adaptation so that the vulnerable are not forced to sacrifice their morally important interests in being able to remain where they are. second, states may not impose restrictive terms on labor migrants to make accepting greater numbers less costly for themselves because doing so unfairly shifts the costs of adaptation onto the most vulnerable. 17. title: the politics of sight: revisiting timothy pachirat�s every twelve seconds authors: jasmine english, bernardo zacka abstract: in his ethnography of industrialized slaughter, every twelve seconds, timothy pachirat coins a label to describe political interventions that use visibility as a catalyst for reform�the �politics of sight.� we argue that the politics of sight rests on three premises that are all mistaken or misspecified: (1) that exposing morally repugnant practices will make us see them, (2) that seeing such practices will stop us from acquiescing to them, and (3) that owning up to such practices is preferable to keeping them concealed. to develop our argument, we propose an alternative interpretation of pachirat�s own ethnographic material informed by theories from social psychology�one that leads to a different critique of the politics of sight than the one pachirat offers and to a different understanding of the conditions under which it can succeed. methodologically, we seek to illustrate the value of reanalyzing interpretive research through close reading. 18. title: unrepresentative claims: speaking for oneself in a social movement authors: samuel hayat abstract: sometimes, people engaged in politics actively refuse to speak for anyone but themselves. these unrepresentative claims multiply in social movements in times of crisis. during the french yellow vest movement of 2018�2019, such unrepresentative claims were routinely made by yellow vest leaders, to the point of being a condition for having a leadership position in the movement. by making these unrepresentative claims, they declined any representative mandate, asserting their freedom from any instituted influence. however, by claiming to speak only for themselves, they also selected the aspects of their identity they performed. this allowed them to embody the people sharing this identity, recalling the medieval repraesentatio identitatis, but in a way adjusted to today�s greater personalization of politics. drawing on this movement and on other examples of unrepresentative claims, we can delineate three broad ideal-types of identities that may be put forward by unrepresentative claims: generality, particularity, and individuality. 19. title: group size and protest mobilization across movements and countermovements authors: anselm hager, lukas hensel, johannes hermle, christopher roth abstract: many social movements face fierce resistance in the form of a countermovement. therefore, when deciding to become politically active, a movement supporter has to consider both her own movement�s activity and that of the opponent. this paper studies the decision of a movement supporter to attend a protest when faced with a counterprotest. we implement two field experiments among supporters of a right- and left-leaning movement ahead of two protest�counterprotest interactions in germany. supporters were exposed to low or high official estimates about their own and the opposing group�s turnout. we find that the size of the opposing group has no effect on supporters� protest intentions. however, as the own protest gets larger, supporters of the right-leaning movement become less while supporters of the left-leaning movement become more willing to protest. we argue that the difference is best explained by stronger social motives on the political left. 20. title: ethnic bias in judicial decision making: evidence from criminal appeals in kenya authors: donghyun danny choi, j. andrew harris, fiona shen-bayh abstract: understanding sources of judicial bias is essential for establishing due process. to date, theories of judicial decision making are rooted in ranked societies with majority�minority group cleavages, leaving unanswered which groups are more prone to express bias and whether it is motivated by in-group favoritism or out-group hostility. we examine judicial bias in kenya, a diverse society that features a more complex ethnic landscape. while research in comparative and african politics emphasizes instrumental motivations underpinning ethnic identity, we examine the psychological, implicit biases driving judicial outcomes. using data from kenyan criminal appeals and the conditional random assignment of judges to cases, we show that judges are 3 to 5 percentage points more likely to grant coethnic appeals than non-coethnic appeals. to understand mechanisms, we use word embeddings to analyze the sentiment of written judgments. judges use more trust-related terms writing for coethnics, suggesting that in-group favoritism motivates coethnic bias in this context. 21. title: the curse of good intentions: why anticorruption messaging can encourage bribery authors: nic cheeseman, caryn peiffer abstract: awareness-raising messages feature prominently in most anticorruption strategies. yet, there has been limited systematic research into their efficacy. there is growing concern that anticorruption awareness-raising efforts may be backfiring; instead of encouraging citizens to resist corruption, they may be nudging them to �go with the corrupt grain.� this study offers a first test of the effect of anticorruption messaging on ordinary people�s behavior. a household-level field experiment, conducted with a representative sample in lagos, nigeria, is used to test whether exposure to five different messages about (anti)corruption influence the outcome of a �bribery game.� we find that exposure to anticorruption messages largely fails to discourage the decision to bribe, and in some cases it makes individuals more willing to pay a bribe. importantly, we also find that the effect of anticorruption messaging is conditioned by an individual�s preexisting perceptions regarding the prevalence of corruption. 22. title: �i�m not sure what to believe�: media distrust and opinion formation during the covid-19 pandemic authors: stephanie ternullo abstract: social scientists have documented rapid polarization in public opinion about covid-19 policies. such polarization is somewhat unsurprising given experimental studies that show opinions on novel issues can diverge quickly in the presence of partisan frames. in this paper i describe a different process that operates alongside polarization: not centrism but a lack of opinion formation. drawing on four rounds of in-depth interviews with 86 midwesterners, conducted between june 2019 and november 2020, i take an inductive approach to understanding variation in the processes by which people gathered and interpreted information about covid-19. i find that those with universal distrust in all media struggled to adjudicate between conflicting interpretations of reality, particularly if they also had low political knowledge. the result was that they felt little confidence in any opinions they formed. these findings suggest that deteriorating trust in media is an important and understudied factor shaping trajectories of opinion formation. 23. title: the provenance problem: research methods and ethics in the age of wikileaks authors: christopher darnton abstract: how should political scientists navigate the ethical and methodological quandaries associated with analyzing leaked classified documents and other nonconsensually acquired sources? massive unauthorized disclosures may excite qualitative scholars with policy revelations and quantitative researchers with big-data suitability, but they are fraught with dilemmas that the discipline has yet to resolve. this paper critiques underspecified research designs and opaque references in the proliferation of scholarship with leaked materials, as well as incomplete and inconsistent guidance from leading journals. it identifies provenance as the primary concept for improved standards and reviews other disciplines� approaches to this problem. it elaborates eight normative and evidentiary criteria for scholars by which to assess source legitimacy and four recommendations for balancing their trade-offs. fundamentally, it contends that scholars need deeper reflection on source provenance and its consequences, more humility about whether to access new materials and what inferences to draw, and more transparency in citation and research strategies. 24. title: �outside lobbying� over the airwaves: a randomized field experiment on televised issue ads authors: joshua l. kalla, david e. broockman abstract: we present the first field experiment on how organized interest groups� television ads affect issue opinions. we randomized 31,404 voters to three weeks of interest group ads about either immigration or transgender nondiscrimination. we then randomly assigned voters to receive ostensibly unrelated surveys either while the ads aired, one day after they stopped, or three days afterwards. voters recalled the ads, but three ads had a minimal influence on public opinion, whereas a fourth�s effects decayed within one day. however, voters remembered a fact from one ad. our results suggest issue ads can affect public opinion but that not every ad persuades and that persuasive effects decay. despite the vast sums spent on television ads, our results are the first field experiment on their persuasive power on issues, shedding light on the mechanisms underpinning�and limits on�both televised persuasion and interest group influence. 25. title: trump and the shifting meaning of �conservative�: using activists� pairwise comparisons to measure politicians� perceived ideologies authors: daniel j. hopkins, hans noel abstract: although prior scholarship has made considerable progress in measuring politicians� positions, it has only rarely considered voters� or activists� perceptions of those positions. here, we present a novel measure of u.s. senators� perceived ideologies derived from 9,030 pairwise comparisons elicited from party activists in three 2016 yougov surveys. by focusing on activists, we study a most-likely case for perceiving within-party ideological distinctions. we also gain empirical leverage from donald trump�s nomination and heterodox positions on some issues. our measure of perceived ideology is correlated with nominate but differs in informative ways: senators with very conservative voting records were sometimes perceived as less conservative if they did not support trump. a confirmatory test shows these trends extended into 2021. even among activists, perceived ideology appears to be anchored by prominent people as well as policy positions. 26. title: india�s farmers� protest: an inclusive vision of indian democracy authors: natasha behl abstract: india, the world�s largest democracy, has been experiencing a democratic decline. since coming to power in 2014 and winning reelection in 2019, prime minister narendra modi and the bharatiya janata party have become increasingly illiberal and authoritarian. the rule of law has deteriorated, rights and liberties have been curtailed, and scholars and the media have been silenced. if electoral constraint, constitutional design, judicial independence, and a free press haven�t slowed india�s march toward illiberalism, what can? in november 2020, india�s farmers began a highly organized protest against the government. in this research note, i ask, how has this protest protected indian democracy from further degradation, and has it radically altered india�s political future? i argue that the farmers� protest provides an alternative vision of democracy, one rooted in radical egalitarianism. protesting farmers have actualized the spirit of dissent enshrined in the indian constitution by holding the current government accountable to it. 27. title: does competence make citizens tolerate undemocratic behavior? authors: kristian vrede skaaning frederiksen abstract: are citizens willing to tolerate violations of democratic rules and norms by competent political leaders? i examine this question employing well-powered conjoint experiments in the united states, the united kingdom, the czech republic, mexico, and south korea. the findings yield good as well as bad news for democracy. i find that undemocratic behavior by political candidates decreases voter support, 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