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volume 112, issue 4, april 2022
1. title: who set your wage?
authors: card, david.
abstract: i discuss the recent literature that has led to new interest in the idea of monopsonistic wage setting. building on advances in search theory and in models of differentiated products, researchers have used a number of different strategies to identify the elasticity of firm-specific labor supply. a growing consensus is that firms have some wage-setting power, though many questions remain about the sources of that power.
2. title: public procurement in law and practice.
authors: bosio, erica; djankov, simeon; glaeser, edward; shleifer, andrei.
abstract: we examine a new dataset of public procurement laws, practice, and outcomes in 187 countries. we measure regulation as restrictions on the discretion of the procuring entities. we find that laws and practice are highly correlated with each other across countries, and better practice is correlated with better outcomes, but laws themselves are not correlated with outcomes. a closer look shows that stricter laws correlate with improved outcomes, but only in countries with low public sector capacity. we present a model of procurement in which both regulatory rules and public sector capacity determine procurement outcomes. in the model, regulation is effective in countries with low public sector capacity, but not in countries with high capacity because it inhibits the socially optimal exercise of discretion to exclude low quality bidders.
3. title: self-persuasion: evidence from field experiments at international debating competitions.
authors: schwardmann, peter; tripodi, egon; van der weele, jo�l j.
abstract: laboratory evidence shows that when people have to argue for a given position, they persuade themselves about the position's factual and moral superiority. such self-persuasion limits the potential of communication to resolve conflict and reduce polarization. we test for this phenomenon in a field setting, at international debating competitions that randomly assign experienced and motivated debaters to argue one side of a topical motion. we find self-persuasion in factual beliefs and confidence in one's position. effect sizes are smaller than in the laboratory, but robust to a one-hour exchange of arguments and a tenfold increase in incentives for accuracy.
4. title: labor market power.
authors: berger, david; herkenhoff, kyle; mongey, simon.
abstract: we develop, estimate, and test a tractable general equilibrium model of oligopsony with differentiated jobs and concentrated labor markets. we estimate key model parameters by matching new evidence on the relationship between firms' local labor market share and their employment and wage responses to state corporate tax changes. the model quantitatively replicates quasi-experimental evidence on imperfect productivity-wage pass-through and strategic wage setting of dominant employers. relative to the efficient allocation, welfare losses from labor market power are 7.6 percent, while output is 20.9 percent lower. lastly, declining local concentration added 4 percentage points to labor's share of income between 1977 and 2013.
5. title: measuring geopolitical risk.
authors: caldara, dario; iacoviello, matteo.
abstract: we present a news-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks. the geopolitical risk (gpr) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the korean war, during the cuban missile crisis, and after 9/11. higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment and is associated with higher disaster probability and larger downside risks. the adverse consequences of the gpr index are driven by both the threat and the realization of adverse geopolitical events. we complement our aggregate measures with industry- and firm-level indicators of geopolitical risk. investment drops more in industries that are exposed to aggregate geopolitical risk. higher firm-level geopolitical risk is associated with lower firm-level investment.
6. title: does context outweigh individual characteristics in driving voting behavior? evidence from relocations within the united states.
authors: cantoni, enrico; pons, vincent.
abstract: we measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. using a us-wide voter-level panel, 2008�2018, we examine voters who relocate across state and county lines, tracking changes in registration, turnout, and party affiliation to estimate location and individual fixed effects in a value-added model. location explains 37 percent of the cross-state variation in turnout (to 63 percent for individual characteristics) and an only slightly smaller share of variation in party affiliation. place effects are larger for young and white voters.
7. title: understanding the scarring effect of recessions.
authors: huckfeldt, christopher.
abstract: this paper documents that the earnings cost of job loss is concentrated among workers who find reemployment in lower-skill occupations, and that the cost and incidence of such occupation displacement is higher for workers who lose their job during a recession. i propose a model where hiring is endogenously more selective during recessions, leading some unemployed workers to optimally search for reemployment in lower-skill jobs. the model accounts for existing estimates of the size and cyclicality of the present value cost of job loss, and the cost of entering the labor market during a recession.
8. title: dynamic price competition, learning-by-doing, and strategic buyers.
authors: sweeting, andrew; jia, dun; hui, shen; yao, xinlu.
abstract: we examine how strategic buyer behavior affects equilibrium outcomes in a model of dynamic price competition where sellers benefit from learning-by-doing by allowing each buyer to expect to capture a share of future buyer surplus. many equilibria that exist when buyers consider only their immediate payoffs are eliminated when buyers expect to capture even a modest share of future surplus, and the equilibria that survive are those where long-run market competition is more likely to be preserved. our results are relevant for antitrust policy and our approach may be useful for future analyses of dynamic competition.
9. title: wetlands, flooding, and the clean water act.
authors: taylor, charles a.; druckenmiller, hannah.
abstract: in 2020 the environmental protection agency narrowed the definition of "waters of the united states," significantly limiting wetland protection under the clean water act. current policy debates center on the uncertainty around wetland benefits. we estimate the value of wet-lands for flood mitigation across the united states using detailed flood claims and land use data. we find the average hectare of wetland lost between 2001 and 2016 cost society $1,840 annually, and over $8,000 in developed areas. we document significant spatial heterogeneity in wetland benefits, with implications for flood insurance policy and the 50 percent of "isolated " wetlands at risk of losing federal protection.
10. title: selling consumer data for profit: optimal -market-segmentation design and its consequences.
authors: yang, kai hao.
abstract: a data broker sells market segmentations to a producer with private cost who sells a product to a unit mass of consumers. this paper characterizes the revenue-maximizing mechanisms for the data broker. every optimal mechanism induces quasi-perfect price discrimination. all the consumers with values above a cost-dependent cutoff buy by paying their values while the rest of consumers do not buy. the characterization implies that market outcomes remain unchanged even if the data broker becomes more powerful�either by gaining the ability to sell access to consumers or by becoming a retailer who purchases the product and sells to the consumers exclusively.
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