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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�j1bjbj�n�n24��a��a�� ""��8��<��sl��%%%�r�r�r�r�r�r�r$u��wfs9�%%%%%s��4ts%r��r%�r��0�#�@c��w|�rjs0�sx�fx�/x�yo�%%%%%%%ss9f%%%�s%%%%��x%%%%%%%%%"qs: world development volume 151, issue 3, march 2022 1. title: targeting social safety net programs on human capabilities authors: heath henderson, lendie follett. abstract: conventional approaches to targeting social safety net programs select beneficiaries on the basis of income or expenditure levels. we argue that these approaches neglect human diversity and agency, which can lead to counterintuitive targeting outcomes and thus a misallocation of benefits. in light of these issues, we develop an alternative method for targeting that is based on the capabilities approach, which we claim provides a more rigorous normative framework for targeting that respects both human diversity and agency. in particular, we adapt bayesian additive regression trees for the estimation of human capabilities and demonstrate how the resulting estimates can be used to target social safety net programs. we examine the targeting implications of our method through a variety of simulation exercises and also with real data from a field experiment conducted in indonesia. relative to more traditional approaches � including not only the full and proxy means test, but also community-based targeting � we find that our method identifies a fundamentally different and arguably more disadvantaged group of beneficiaries. 2. title: frontier ngos: conservancies, control, and violence in northern kenya authors: conrad schetter, kennedy mkutu, marie m�ller-kon�. abstract: during the last decades, the boundaries between humanitarian aid and development on the one side and security and physical force on the other side became increasingly permeable. several non-governmental organisations (ngos) operating in the field of humanitarian aid and development established their own security measures and structures of force in order to fulfil their mandates. in this article, we deal with the particular question of why and how ngos become involved in organizing force in nature conservation areas, and to what effect. this question is analysed using the example of the northern rangelands trust (nrt), which is the largest ngo governing conservancies in northern kenya. during the last two decades, nrt emerged as a state within the state: its influence and control reach far beyond the realm of conservation. to understand the role nrt is playing, we apply the approach of frontier studies. we shed light on the reshuffling of the organization of force in northern kenya � habitually considered to be the role of the state � as a consequence of the establishment of conservancies by nrt. nrt�s security personnel have become a decisive force in northern kenya, which is not only providing security, but is also drawn into intercommunal violent conflicts. we aim to explain why an environmental ngo could become such an outstanding player in the (re-)organization of force, and why the state at least tolerates the expansion of nrt. with this example, we would like to draw attention to the very fact that in frontier contexts ngos resemble non-governmental agents of the state. they become exposed to public discourses, while the government can easily absolve itself of any blame. 3. title: from public service access to service quality: the distributive politics of piped water in bangalore authors: tanu kumar, alison e. post, isha ray, megan otsuka, francesc pardo-bosch. abstract: public service access in low- and middle- income countries is shaped by how much governments spend on services and where they choose to prioritize delivery. accordingly, the local public goods and distributive politics literatures are largely focused on government spending and patterns of access. we argue that, even after access is granted, service quality can vary dramatically, and may vary with socio-economic and political characteristics. we provide one of the first analyses of a key dimension of service quality: intermittency, which affects vital services such as water and electricity for hundreds of millions of people. we illustrate how to study it by highlighting the specific facets of intermittency that must be managed within the network; we show that these dimensions may be manipulated separately, and that infrastructure network structure shapes the allocation of intermittency. the literature from urban india shows that access to water connections (like access to many other local public goods) is typically associated with higher socio-economic status. in contrast, we find that in our study sites in bangalore, water flows through pipes more frequently and predictably in low-income areas�thereby underscoring the importance of studying intermittency, and service quality more generally, as phenomena distinct from access. 4. title: boosting rural labor off-farm employment through urban expansion in china authors: yu sheng, yuhan zhao, qian zhang, wanlu dong, jikun huang. abstract: rural development is widely believed to interact with the structural transformation, but little is known about how this happens in developing countries. this paper explores the impact of structural transformation on rural development through the length of analyzing the role of urban growth in creating off-farm employment for rural labor in china. by combining five waves of farm surveys for 1,234 households for the period of 2000�2018 with a newly constructed urban gravity index for 370 cities, we show that rapid urban growth in china has significantly contributed to rural development by increasing off-farm employment for rural labor by 47�71 million since 2000. moreover, the positive impact started with the emergence of a few large metropolitan cities but ended with the growth of local, relatively small cities, suggesting the interaction between structural transformation and rural development is at a nationwide level. 5. title: corruption, institutional trust and political engagement in peru authors: celeste beesley, darren hawkins. abstract: widespread corruption and lack of trust in political institutions are common development problems that are likely deeply interconnected. we contribute to the existing understanding of their relationship using survey experimental methods and by investigating how different dimensions of corruption affect trust. does grand versus petty corruption affect citizen trust in political institutions? what about corruption with positive versus negative consequences? after presenting respondents in peru with randomly assigned information about these specific aspects of political corruption, we measure 1) attitudes about trust in government institutions and 2) behavioral engagement in anti-corruption efforts through donations to a well-known peruvian ngo. we find that petty corruption, but not grand corruption, decreased institutional trust compared to a control. additionally, in contrast to previous findings showing that �beneficial� corruption reduces electoral punishments for individual politicians, both positive and negative consequences decreased institutional trust. corruption information did not alter donations to an ngo. going beyond the correlations found in prior observational studies, this paper demonstrates a causal relationship between corruption information and institutional trust. our results signal the importance of addressing petty corruption to improve public trust. they also emphasize important difficulties in motivating citizen action against corruption because anti-corruption messaging can decrease trust, while failing to motivate even low-cost political action. 6. title: technological advancement, import penetration and labour markets: evidence from thailand authors: juthathip jongwanich, archanun kohpaiboon, ayako obashi abstract: this paper examines the impact of advanced technology and import penetration on changes in employment positions and income, as well as the possibility that workers become unemployed due to such technological progress. two proxies of advanced technology are used, ict and the intensity of robot usage. the analysis considers changes in employment status and income, together with workers� industrial adjustments in investigating the impact of technological advancements and imports, which are delineated into raw materials, capital goods and final products. the results show that in thailand, the impact of advanced technology in pushing workers out of the job market is limited. instead, it tends to affect the reallocation of workers between skilled and unskilled positions. the results vary among workers� industrial destinations and proxies of technology. skill upgrading is likely to occur more when workers stay or move within manufacturing sectors, while ict usage tends to generate more favourable outcomes than robot adoption. workers in comparatively capital-intensive industries, including the automotive and plastics and rubber sectors, tend to receive greater benefits from technological growth. our results highlight a diminished negative impact resulting from imports, particularly those of capital and final goods, in comparison to that of technological advancements. technology adoption and imports are likely to lower workers� income regardless of their industrial destinations and proxies of technology. 7. title: inflation news and the poor: the role of ethnic heterogeneity authors: frode martin nordvik. abstract: incomes are more unequally distributed in ethnically diverse populations than in more homogenous ones. in this paper, i help explain this pattern by showing that unanticipated inflation reduces the income share of the poor in ethnically fractionalized countries, while increasing it in ethnically homogenous populations. i propose a mechanism to explain the result, where inflation-hedging among the rich is more prevalent in ethnically fractionalized countries because inflation is more volatile. to identify episodes of unanticipated price increases, i construct a novel data set of inflation shocks across 189 countries, using the revisions to the inflation forecasts in imfs world economic outlook between spring and fall reports. 8. title: spousal concordance in joint and separate households: survey evidence from nepal authors: kate ambler, cheryl doss, caitlin kieran, simone passarelli. abstract: in household surveys, husbands and wives who are asked the same set of survey questions often provide different responses. the levels of concordance in responses to questions about who owns assets and makes decisions in a household may hold valuable information about household dynamics and women�s well-being. these relationships may be especially indicative in the south asian context where couples often reside in joint households with the husbands� parents, resulting in different power structures. using data from nepal, we study patterns of concordance between spouses on survey questions regarding household asset ownership and decision making. we analyze these patterns separately for couples that reside with the husband�s parents and those that do not. we consider concordance regarding both the asset ownership and decision making of wives and individuals other than the respondent couple. we find that discordance regarding wives� asset ownership and decision making is both substantial and systematic. wives are much more likely than husbands to report their own participation in asset ownership and decision making, in both joint and separate households. regarding the involvement of others, the modal response in joint households is concordance that others own assets and make decisions; however, wives are more likely than husbands to acknowledge this. spousal concordance that wives own assets or make decisions, and discordance in which wives report that they own assets or make decisions, are both correlated with some improved measures of wives� well-being. in households with in-laws present, concordance that others are involved is correlated with worse outcomes for wives. these results highlight that spousal concordance is not necessarily indicative of wives� well-being, especially in joint households. 9. title: the redistributive power of cash transfers vs vat exemptions: a multi-country study authors: ross warwick, tom harris, david phillips, maya goldman, karolina goraus-tadska. abstract: like high-income countries, low- and middle-income countries (lmics) offer reduced rates and exemptions on particular goods and services in their value-added tax (vat) systems. these policies are often motivated by distributional concerns and target items thought to take up a larger share of the budgets of poorer households. this paper explores the effectiveness of such policies in six lmics. we estimate their impact on tax revenues, inequality and poverty, and compare these effects to existing cash transfer schemes and a hypothetical universal transfer (ut) funded by broadening the vat base. to do so, we use tax-benefit microsimulation models incorporating input�output tables, allowing us to estimate the impact of exemptions on consumer prices due to vat embedded in supply chains. we show that although preferential vat rates reduce poverty, they are not well targeted towards poor households overall. existing cash transfer schemes are better targeted but generally have limited coverage. a ut funded by a broader vat base would create large net gains for the poorest households, reducing inequality and most measures of extreme poverty in each of the countries studied. our results suggest that the widespread practice of providing special vat treatment to certain goods and services is an expensive way of reaching poor households. in principle, expanding the vat base and social protection schemes in tandem has the potential to both raise tax revenues and reduce poverty. such reforms therefore warrant consideration for lmics as they pursue domestic revenue mobilisation and broader development objectives. 10. title: assessing gender parity in intrahousehold allocation of educational resources: evidence from bangladesh authors: sijia xu, abu s. shonchoy, tomoki fujii. abstract: gender parity in education�an important global development goal�has been primarily measured through school enrollment, and the gender parity in education quality has received limited attention until recently. we address this issue by highlighting the intrahousehold allocation of education expenditure. we extend the hurdle model into a three-part model to enable decomposition of households� education decisions into enrollment, total education expenditure, and share of the total education expenditure on the core component, or items relating to the quality of education such as private tutoring. we apply this model to four rounds of nationally representative household surveys from bangladesh, a country that offers a unique setting in south asia with the female stipend programs (fsps), a nationwide gender-targeted conditional cash transfer program. we demonstrate a strong profemale bias in the enrollment decision but contrasting promale bias in the other two decisions, conditional on enrollment. we argue that this contradirectional gender gap is unique to bangladesh and that it can be explained partly by the fsps. both the three-part model and a separate analysis of double-difference model show that the fsps promoted girls� secondary school enrollment. however, the fsps did not narrow the gender gap in the intrahousehold allocation of educational resources. consistently, we find a gender gap in on-time completion of secondary school. our findings collectively highlight the complex interplay of intrahousehold decisions and underscore the importance of minding the gender gap in the quality of education and implementing complementary policies to address it in developing countries. 11. title: the economic impact of weather anomalies authors: gabriel felbermayr, jasmin gr�schl, mark sanders, vincent schippers, thomas steinwachs abstract: how do weather anomalies affect the economy at the local level? this paper presents a new data set that links weather data to annual average night-light emission data for 24.000 0.5�� 0.5� grid-cells around the globe for the period 1992�2013. interpreting night-light emission as a proxy for economic activity, these data allow one to investigate how weather anomalies affect economic activity. global coverage avoids selection bias, while high spatial resolution avoids averaging out heterogeneity in local impacts at higher aggregation levels. our data show significant effects on the local growth of night-light for storms, excessive precipitation, droughts, and cold spells. moreover, we find evidence for significant spatial spillovers to neighboring areas. our results suggest that these offsetting spillovers are typically local. as positive and negative effects average out in larger areas, our results call for the analysis of economic effects of weather anomalies at a high geographical resolution. finally, our results are driven by events in lower income regions. as climate change is expected to make weather patterns more erratic, our new data can inform emerging debates on how this will affect the economy in both science and politics. 12. title: substitution versus wealth: dual effects of non-pastoral income on livestock herd size authors: jie zhou, hua zhong, wuyang hu, guanghua qiao. abstract: this study examines the non-linear impact of non-pastoral income on livestock herd size using balanced panel data collected through surveys in 2013, 2016, and 2018 in pastoral areas in inner mongolia, china. unlike previous studies, this analysis proposes that non-pastoral income has both substitution and wealth effects on livestock herd size. our theoretical model and empirical result reveal a u-shaped relationship between non-pastoral income and livestock herd size. initial increase in non-pastoral income and employment partially substitutes out livestock production, resulting in decreased livestock herd size. however, with continued increase in non-pastoral income, the wealth effect begins to dominate. due to the inability to trade pasture ownership and inefficient transfer of use rights given the current chinese land tenure system, wealth accumulated through non-pastoral income may enable additional animal production, which leads to increased livestock herd size and possible overgrazing. our findings suggest sustainable use and management of pastures should consider the nonlinear impact of non-pastoral income under the prevailing land tenure system. 13. title: debunking the chinese unitary state via legal pluralism: historical, indigenous and customary rights in china (1949�present) authors: peter ho. abstract: in the literature on legal pluralism, there is minimal attention paid to the state � apart from being generally conceptualized as a unitary entity vis-�-vis an otherwise legally pluralist society. however, this perspective has been critiqued by a modest, yet growing, group of scholars. in furthering the debate, this article postulates that states are constituted by competing semi-autonomous fields and are thus, to varying degrees, inherently inconsistent, contradictory, and pluralist in nature despite the superficial conveyed imagery of unity. to substantiate this thesis, the article: 1) equally applies the concepts of legal pluralism as hitherto applied to issues such as historical rights, indigenous peoples, and customary law; 2) employs this exercise to deconstruct what is perhaps one of the world�s most archetypal unitary states: the peoples� republic of china. as a strongly, centralist state governing a substantially socio-culturally and ethnically diversified society, china provides a noteworthy case of the workings of what is termed �state legal pluralism�. to demonstrate this, the article examines a critical right (ownership) around an equally critical resource (land). this is achieved with reference to different, coexisting legal orders that are considered highly sensitive and potentially explosive in china: historical, indigenous, and customary rights. the analysis is based on a comprehensive review of laws and policies, national people�s congress reports, verdicts of the supreme people�s court, (local) regulations, and court cases. it covers a period exceeding 70 years from 1949 to 2020. the data analysis ascertains that the different organs of the chinese state constitute competing semi-autonomous fields that, at times, put forward rules in flagrant contradiction with state law up to the point of upholding pre-revolutionary, private land ownership. 14. title: �to prevent this disease, we have to stay at home, but if we stay at home, we die of hunger� � livelihoods, vulnerability and coping with covid-19 in rural mozambique authors: judith e. krauss, luis artur, dan brockington, eduardo castro, ... clemence zimudzi abstract: non-pharmaceutical interventions (npis) such as social distancing and travel restrictions have been introduced to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus (hereinafter covid). in many countries of the global south, npis are affecting rural livelihoods, but in-depth empirical data on these impacts are limited. we traced the differentiated impacts of covid npis throughout the start of the pandemic may to july 2020. we conducted qualitative weekly phone interviews (n = 441) with 92 panelists from nine contrasting rural communities across mozambique (3�7 study weeks), exploring how panelists� livelihoods changed and how the npis intersected with existing vulnerabilities, and created new exposures. the npis significantly re-shaped many livelihoods and placed greatest burdens on those with precarious incomes, women, children and the elderly, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. transport and trading restrictions and rising prices for consumables including food meant some respondents were concerned about dying not of covid, but of hunger because of the disruptions caused by npis. no direct health impacts of the pandemic were reported in these communities during our interview period. most market-orientated income diversification strategies largely failed to provide resilience to the npi shocks. the exception was one specific case linked to a socially-minded value chain for baobab, where a strong duty of care helped avoid the collapse of incomes seen elsewhere. in contrast, agricultural and charcoal value chains either collapsed or saw producer prices and volumes reduced. the hyper-covariate, unprecedented nature of the shock caused significant restrictions on livelihoods through trading and transport limits and thus a region-wide decline in cash generation opportunities, which was seen as being unlike any prior shock. the scale of human-made interventions and their repercussions thus raises questions about the roles of institutional actors, diversification and socially-minded trading partners in addressing coping and vulnerability both conceptually and in policy-making. 15. title: natural disasters and labor migration: evidence from nepal�s earthquake authors: shishir shakya, subuna basnet, jayash paudel. abstract: the 2015 earthquake in nepal affected approximately 8 million people, resulting in an economic loss of 10 billion us dollars. we exploit the quasi-random spatial and temporal nature of ground tremors to evaluate the impact of the 2015 earthquake on international labor migration per 100,000 population in nepal. using different sets of difference-in-differences research designs, we show that the number of work permits issued to nepalese individuals for international migration decreased significantly in districts severely affected by the 2015 earthquake. results further indicate that the effect of the earthquake on international labor migration is statistically significant and negative only among males. together, these results provide strong evidence that natural disasters induce significant changes in labor market outcomes in a developing country setting. 16. title: employment effects of economic sanctions in iran authors: ali moghaddasi kelishomi, roberto nistic�. abstract: this paper investigates the effect of economic sanctions on employment. we exploit the imposition of a series of unexpected and unprecedented international economic sanctions on iran in 2012 and estimate the short-run effects of the change in import exposure on manufacturing employment at the industry level. our estimates indicate that the sanctions led to an overall decline in the manufacturing employment growth rate by 16.4 percentage points. however, we uncover significant asymmetric effects across industries with different ex-ante import shares. interestingly, the effects are mostly driven by labor-intensive industries and industries that heavily depend on imported inputs. this suggests that the overall negative impact of the sanctions on employment might be largely due to the decline in productivity experienced by industries with a high propensity to import inputs from abroad. 17. title: the economic burden of non-communicable diseases on households and their coping mechanisms: evidence from rural vietnam authors: pham tien thanh, pham bao duong. abstract: in developing countries, the economic burden of non-communicable diseases (ncds) on households may be very high, especially in rural areas where the social protection and public health care systems are inadequate and underdeveloped. however, there has been very little research on the economic burden of ncds on households in rural areas. we used two rounds of panel data from rural vietnam to examine the economic burden of ncds on households and determine which coping mechanisms the affected households adopted to mitigate these burdens. we employed a difference-in-difference combined with propensity score matching method to account for selectivity bias. our results revealed that ncds are associated with higher numbers of labor days lost and lower earned income (particularly, income from non-farm self-employment and wage activities). we also found that the ncd-affected households resort to remittances, sales of assets, and loans in response to ncds. in addition, households with ncds in adults tended to experience greater economic burden and adopted more coping mechanisms than households with ncds in the elderly or children. our research underscores the importance of measures and policies designed to protect rural households against the economic burden of ncds. 18. title: winds of fire and smoke: air pollution and health in the brazilian amazon authors: rudi rocha, andr� albuquerque sant�anna abstract: in this paper we assess the effects of fire-related air pollution on population health in the brazilian amazon. our empirical strategy is based on a municipality-by-month fixed effects model, coupled with an instrumental variables approach that explores wind direction and air pollution in surrounding areas in order to exogenously shift exposure to air pollution at the locality. we find that exposure to air pollution, measured by pm2.5 concentration levels, is robustly associated with an increase in hospital admissions for respiratory conditions. the effects are higher among children and the elderly, and increase non-linearly with pollution levels. our benchmark estimates indicate that an increase of one standard deviation in pm2.5 is related to an increase of 1.5% of the monthly hospitalization rate for respiratory conditions. the latter estimate reaches 14% if monthly average pm2.5 crosses thresholds as high as 75 g/m3. we do not observe significant effects on hospitalization rates related to other health conditions nor on mortality rates. 19. title: diversifying violence: mining, export-agriculture, and criminal governance in mexico authors: joel salvador herrera, cesar b. martinez-alvarez abstract: a growing body of evidence suggests that criminal organizations across the global south actively exploit natural resources in the communities where they operate with important sociopolitical consequences. in this article, we investigate the case of mexico where the incursion of criminal groups into the mining and export-agricultural sectors impacts violence at the local level. we propose two mechanisms that explain why criminal groups diversify. first, the war-profit motive suggests that competition and state repression prompt criminal organizations to look for non-traditional sources of incomes and to build up their violence-making capacities. second, the governance motive suggests that extracting rents from key industries represents a strategy for these organizations to establish territorial control in local communities. using homicide data from 2007 to 2011, we demonstrate that access to primary sector revenues is associated with higher levels of violence among mexican municipalities. using qualitative evidence from michoac�n, we show how the introduction of criminal governance systems to rural areas was a key factor in explaining why criminal groups diversified toward mining and export-agriculture. 20. title: local corruption, total factor productivity and firm heterogeneity: empirical evidence from chinese manufacturing firms authors: firat demir, chenghao hu, junyi liu, hewei shen. abstract: this paper examines the effects of local corruption on total factor productivity (tfp) of manufacturing firms in china. the empirical analysis is based on a novel corruption dataset we developed on local corruption in china at various disaggregation levels. the empirical results using fixed effects and instrumental variable estimation methods suggest that corruption has an economically and statistically significant negative effect on firm productivity. the estimated economic cost of corruption is found to be high; a one standard deviation increase in corruption reduces firm tfp by around 3.8%. we also find that firm heterogeneity shapes business reactions to corruption in a given geographical location. increasing corruption hurts firms less when they are publicly owned, export-oriented, more profitable, have faster growth, or operate in industries with lower levels of competition. we also show that firms in cities with higher levels of human capital and higher levels of public spending on education and scientific research are less sensitive to corruption. as for transmission channels, we find that corruption is likely to hurt tfp through its negative effects on private ownership, investment rate, export intensity, innovation, leverage, employment growth, and profit. 21. title: curtailing covid-19 on a dollar-a-day in malawi: role of community leadership for shaping public health and economic responses to the pandemic authors: iliana v. kohler, fabrice k�mpfen, alberto ciancio, james mwera, hans-peter kohler. abstract: utilizing population-based data from the covid-19 phone survey () of the malawi longitudinal study of families and health (mlsfh) collected during june 2nd�august 17th, 2020, we focus on the crucial role that community leadership and trust in institutions played in shaping behavioral, economic and social responses to covid-19 in this low-income sub-saharan african context. we argue that the effective response of malawi to limit the spread of the virus was facilitated by the engagement of local leadership to mobilize communities to adapt and adhere to covid-19 prevention strategies. using linear and ordered probit models and controlling for time fixed effects, we show that village heads (vhs) played pivotal role in shaping individuals� knowledge about the pandemic and the adoption of preventive health behaviors and were crucial for mitigating the negative economic and health consequences of the pandemic. we further show that trust in institutions is of particular importance in shaping individuals� behavior during the pandemic, and these findings highlight the pivotal role of community leadership in fostering better compliance and adoption of public health measures essential to contain the virus. overall, our findings point to distinctive patterns of pandemic response in a low-income sub-saharan african rural population that emphasized local leadership as mediators of public health messages and policies. these lessons from the first pandemic wave remain relevant as in many low-income countries behavioral responses to covid-19 will remain the primary prevention strategy for a foreseeable future. 22. title: the multiple meanings and uses of south�south relations in extraction: the brazilian mining company vale in mozambique authors: eric cezne, jana h�nke abstract: south-south relations have raised hopes of a new development geography � one based on solidarity and more horizontal partnerships among countries in the global south. in recent years, however, many of these aspirations have proven far-fetched. in the case of brazil, the presidency of jair bolsonaro may even suggest that the south�south hype is now over and done. however, empirical accounts of the engagement of southern, emerging market-based multinationals across the global south, such as that of brazil�s mining corporation vale in mozambique, remain scarce. one missing perspective in defining south-south relations is the agency of other actors beyond emerging powers� governments. this article therefore goes beyond the pre-eminence of the brazilian state. instead, it analyses how south�south relations have been signified and used by two critical actors in the context of vale�s extractive operations in mozambique: first, the professionals involved in corporate responsibility projects and second, the mozambican power elites. there is a range of analyses of south�south ties, the imaginaries and hopes associated with them, and their practical possibilities which change according to the expectations, demands, and interests of different actors. we observe that brazilian professionals in particular have built on specific cultural framings and imaginaries associated with south�south relations to claim a distinct vision and practice of corporate responsibility. taking note of the prominent role played by mozambique�s ruling party frelimo, we further demonstrate how mozambican power elites have harnessed, through gatekeeping practices, the country�s commodity-spurred architecture of south�south relations to reaffirm political power and amplify individual economic interests. in light of vale�s current withdrawal from mozambique, we posit that our analysis provides a timely opportunity to reflect on the multiple makings, and implications of south-south engagement, the controversies linked to the role of brazilian capital in africa, and mozambique�s development through extraction. 23. title: policy instrument choice under globalization: do authoritarian states choose differently? authors: olga ulybina. abstract: do authoritarian states differ from non-authoritarian ones in their social policy choices? the paper presents new data on childcare deinstitutionalization policies in 15 ex-soviet countries in eastern europe and central asia. the data suggest significant convergence among countries in the adoption of both deinstitutionalization policy �ends� and �means�, despite drastic differences in political regimes. in particular, i trace the adoption of several instruments, which have been actively promoted by international organizations (e.g., foster care, case management, downsizing of institutions, etc.). the data suggest that authoritarian states in the ex-soviet region do not differ from non-authoritarian governments in their deinstitutionalization instrument choices, suggesting that political regime is not always a major policy determinant. the results are significant because they show that authoritarian regimes can also select modern, non-coercive instruments for childcare deinstitutionalization, which are underpinned by the idea of agentic actors and the centrality of the individual. 24. title: fewer, better pathways for all? intersectional impacts of rural school consolidation in china�s minority regions authors: emily hannum, fan wang abstract: primary school consolidation�the closure of small community schools or their mergers into larger, better-resourced schools�is emerging as a significant policy response to changing demographics in middle income countries with large rural populations. in china, large-scale consolidation took place in the early 21st century. because officially-recognized minority populations disproportionately reside in rural and remote areas, minority students were among those at elevated risk of experiencing school consolidation. we analyze heterogeneous effects of consolidation on educational attainment and reported national language ability in china by exploiting variations in closure timing across villages and cohorts captured in a 2011 survey of provinces and autonomous regions with substantial minority populations. we consider heterogeneous treatment effects across groups defined at the intersections of minority status, gender, and community ethnic composition and socioeconomic status. compared to villages with schools, villages whose schools had closed reported that the schools students now attended were better resourced, less likely to offer minority language of instruction, more likely to have han teachers, farther away, and more likely to require boarding. much more than han youth, ethnic minority youth were negatively affected by closure, in terms of its impact on both educational attainment and written mandarin facility. however, for both outcomes, significant penalties accruing to minority youth occurred only in the poorest villages. penalties were generally heavier for girls, but in the most ethnically segregated minority villages, boys from minority families were highly vulnerable to closure effects on attainment and written mandarin facility. results show that intersections of minority status, gender, and community characteristics can delineate significant heterogeneities in policy impacts. 25. title: perceptions of inequality and social mobility in mexico authors: raymundo m. campos-vazquez, alice krozer, aurora a. ram�rez-�lvarez, rodolfo de la torre, roberto velez-grajales. abstract: using new survey and experimental data, we investigate how perceptions about inequality and social mobility affect preferences for redistribution in mexico. in addition to the perceived level of inequality typically measured in previous studies, we explore perceptions about who is rich and poor and their share of the population. the shape of perceived inequality that we find provides new insights as to why people tolerate large differences between the rich and the poor. we find that mexicans generally perceive poverty and inequality not too far from measured levels, but they overestimate the income of the rich and their proportion of the population. their perceptions of social mobility correctly estimate persistence rates at the top and bottom of the distribution, but they overestimate upward and downward mobility. providing people with more information about observed income inequality and social mobility could be one way to encourage a demand for redistribution. however, randomly providing selected participants with this information has almost zero effect on their desired levels of equality, social mobility, and tax rates. finally, we find that mexicans want a progressive tax system in which the poor pay an average tax rate of 14% and the wealthy pay 41%, and that preference for a more progressive tax structure is negatively related to socioeconomic status. 26. title: the times are changing: understanding past, current and future resource use in rural papua new guinea using participatory photography authors: mirjam hazenbosch, shen sui, brus isua, e.j. milner-gulland, emilie beauchamp. abstract: there is a need to include local people�s voices in research and planning processes to better understand what they see as opportunities and challenges for their future. this is necessary because of the intrinsic importance of public participation, and because it can help produce more useful and implementable adaptation plans. we apply participatory photography in a papua new guinean smallholder farming community to explore local perspectives on resource management, drivers of change and adaptive strategies. twenty-four farmers of different clans, genders and ages took photos of items important to their livelihoods, focusing separately on the past, present and future. we discussed the photos and their meanings in individual and group interviews, encouraging farmers to lead the conversations. results show that farmers are shifting from relying mainly on natural capitals to using financial, social and physical capitals, and that this causes changes in people�s well-being. villagers see cash crop diseases, land shortages and lack of training as their main challenges. so far, people have adapted to changes by shifting to crop species that still yield well, and setting up small businesses and projects to have additional sources of income. farmers see education as key to their future as it would allow for better land management and diversification of livelihoods. the participatory photography process provided triangulation of scientific studies, gave insights into farmers� perceptions, and highlighted adaptive strategies and the complexities of realising them. overall, the results can be used in future research and planning processes in papua new guinea. 27. title: the impact of domestic and foreign r&d on tfp in developing countries authors: dierk herzer abstract: there are few studies on the impact of domestic r&d on tfp in developing countries and even less on the impact of both domestic and foreign r&d on tfp in developing countries. only one of these studies�a single-country study�also tests semi-endogenous and schumpeterian r&d growth models against each other. all these studies focus on a relatively small number of developing countries, and none examines the extent to which there are differences in the effects of domestic r&d and international r&d spillovers on tfp between middle- and low-income countries. using a large panel of countries, this study (i) tests the predictions of schumpeterian theory against the predictions of semi-endogenous theory regarding the r&d-tfp relationship for developing economies, (ii) examines and compares the effects of domestic r&d and international r&d spillovers on tfp in developing countries, and (iii) investigates differences in the effects of domestic r&d and international r&d spillovers on tfp between middle- and low-income countries. it is found that an increase in the level (growth rate) of domestic r&d expenditures has a positive effect on the level (growth rate) of tfp, as semi-endogenous growth theory predicts, but this effect is greater in middle-income than in low-income countries. it is also found that domestic r&d has a much greater effect on tfp in developing countries than international r&d spillovers. 28. title: is schooling the same as learning? � the impact of the learning-adjusted years of schooling on growth in a dynamic panel data framework authors: linda glawe, helmut wagner abstract: recent research shows that schooling is not the same as learning. still, the mean school years are the standard metric of education-based human capital. we propose a new database on the learning-adjusted years of schooling (lays) over the period 1995�2015 by using the world bank (2018) methodology. the lays combine measures of school quantity and school quality into a single measure. using a dynamic panel data framework, we find that the lays have a positive association with growth and appear to be a more robust predictor of economic outcome than the traditional measures of education such as the mean school years. we also investigate the interrelationship between institutional quality and the lays. our evidence suggests that human capital and �good� institutions serve as substitutes in the growth process, meaning that the positive association of the lays with growth is smaller in countries where institutions are already strong than in countries with poorly functioning institutions. our results have important policy implications, since investments in human capital and institutional quality are both costly measures, especially for developing countries. 29. title: food policies and obesity in low- and middle-income countries authors: kibrom a. abay, hosam ibrahim, clemens breisinger abstract: understanding the public health implications of food policies is crucial to combat recently increasing overweight and obesity rates in many low-and-middle income countries (lmics). this study examines the implication of food policies, mainly tariff rates on �unhealthy� foods (sugar and confectionery products as well as fats and oils) and governments� subsidies, on individuals� body weight outcomes. we compile several macro- and micro-level datasets that provide macro-level information on food policies and micro-level anthropometric data for several lmics. we exploit temporal dynamics in tariff rates on �unhealthy� foods and governments� spending on subsidies to estimate fixed effects models characterizing the evolution of body weight outcomes. we find that temporal dynamics in tariff rates on unhealthy and energy-dense foods are significantly and negatively associated with body weight. conditional on several observable and time-invariant unobservable factors, a decrease in tariff rates on sugar and confectionary foods or fats and oils is associated with an increase in overweight and obesity rates. on the other hand, an increase in subsidy rate, as a share of government expenditure, is significantly associated with higher overweight and obesity rates. interestingly, we find that the implications of these food policies are more pronounced among poorer individuals. this may be explained by the fact that poorer households usually spend a larger share of their income on food consumption or unhealthy foods; and that poorer individuals are often beneficiaries of government subsidies in many lmics. these findings have important implications for informing public health policies in lmics, which are experiencing an unprecedented rise in overweight and obesity rates. 30. title: impact of an integrated youth skill training program on youth livelihoods: a case study of cocoa belt region in ghana authors: vidhya unnikrishnan, melanie pinet, lukasz marc, nathaniel amoh boateng, ... sophie bridonneau abstract: this paper assesses the impact of an integrated skills training program given to youth aged 17�25-year-old living under the $2/day poverty line in the cocoa belt region of ghana. despite being a leading producer of cocoa and having a burgeoning youth population, it is estimated that the average age of a cocoa farmer in ghana is greater than 50 years. to introduce young people to cocoa farming and address the potential barriers they face in order to do that; a multi-faceted skills training programme was designed with the ultimate aim of improving and diversifying youth livelihoods. the training had three key components: i) cocoa academies (which includes agricultural practices; life skills and financial literacy); ii) business incubators (including entrepreneurial training, networks, mentoring) and iii) supporting enabling environment (access to land and finance). combining quasi-experimental methods propensity score matching with difference in differences, we estimate the causal effect of the programme on agricultural outcomes (farming, agricultural practices), financial behaviour outcomes (saving practices, mobile banking) and livelihood outcomes (employment, income, poverty likelihood) one year after the completion of training. the results of the impact evaluation suggest that compared to the control group (youth non-participants), youths who participated in the training adopt better agricultural practices (26 percentage points (pp)), cultivate cocoa (24 pp), and are more likely to engage in farming (22 pp). we also find a 28.7% increase in income in the last seven days and hours worked by 12.4%. youth also increase the use of banks for saving (16 pp), save using mobile money (6.7 pp), the use of village savings and loan associations (1.7 pp) and, in general, the use of mobile money for both sending and receiving transfers (10.6 pp). the sex-disaggregated sub-sample analysis provides other valuable insights on the intervention. 31. title: mosaic glimpses: serious games, generous constraints, and sustainable futures in kandal, cambodia authors: jean-philippe venot, casper bruun jensen, etienne delay, william's dar� abstract: this paper uses a series of serious games � a form of participatory modelling designed and played in kandal, cambodia - as an entry point for reexamining relations between development projects, participatory formats, landscape transformations, and sustainable futures. critics of development and participation have shown that participatory formats simplify real-world complexities by rendering them technical. this is also the case for serious games. but contrary to what is often assumed, �depoliticization� is not the unavoidable outcome. instead, participatory outcomes depend on specific sociotechnical patterns of more or less generous constraints. to support collective exploration requires tinkering with these patterns of constraints to keep the boundaries between virtual and real worlds, insiders and outsiders, and the present and future relatively permeable. generous constraints and permeable boundaries do not keep power out of participation but facilitate glimpses of different possibilities. in kandal, they made it possible to shift from narrow technical discussions on the rehabilitation of specific preks (water channels) towards a collective exploration of sustainable futures for the full mosaic landscape. in general, we argue, serious games hold potentials as experimental systems, which are serious to the extent that they work like technologies of humility. in this capacity, they can support efforts to do difference together, and explore more-than-human worlds and divergent practical ontologies. learning from this multiplicity matters for moving towards sustainable forms of living in kandal and elsewhere. 32. title: a place-based framework for assessing resettlement capacity in the context of displacement induced by climate change authors: solomon zena walelign, p�ivi lujala abstract: place-based resettlement capacity assessments to identify potential resettlement places for climate migrants are needed to guide resettlement programs related to climate change. this article proposes and validates a conceptual climate change resettlement capacity (ccrc) framework that can be used to identify potential resettlement places for climate migrants. the ccrc framework focuses on livelihood reconstruction, as this is the primary aim of most resettlement programs and a key for successful resettlement and mitigation of impoverishment of resettled people and communities. the framework has two main dimensions � assets and conditions � as its foundation, with a set of subdimensions and generic indicators identified for both of them. expert evaluation was used to validate the framework. the operationalization of the framework is illustrated through a case study of two regions of ethiopia vulnerable to climate change. the framework is designed to assist international organizations, governments, planners, and policymakers in identifying both the most suitable and least suitable places to resettle communities in the face of actual or anticipated displacements due to climate change. in addition, the framework can be used by researchers to undertake theoretical and empirical studies on resettlement induced by climate change. with minor modifications, the framework can also be applied to resettlement capacity assessments for non-climate resettlement programs and research. 33. title: linking human capabilities with livelihood strategies to speed poverty reduction: evidence from rwanda authors: kate bird, bastien chab�-ferret, alexandre simons. abstract: acute land scarcity in rwanda limits poor people�s ability to accumulate and move out of poverty. options for livelihood diversification are restricted by the absence of a vibrant and job-rich non-farm rural economy, and by high rural�urban inequality which makes the urban economy somewhat inaccessible, particularly given the regulated nature of the urban informal sector, limiting opportunities for migration. competition for employment is made more challenging by low capabilities, which place high-return jobs beyond reach for many poor people. this paper relies on mixed methods research to explore a land-education-jobs nexus and identify the linked human capital and livelihood determinants of poverty escapes to understand the factors slowing poverty reduction in rwanda. the quantitative analysis uses three waves of nationally representative panel data between 2010/11 and 2016/17 to investigate correlates of poverty trajectories. the qualitative analysis uses content analysis to explore life histories, focus group discussions and key informant interviews from 14 study sites to explore factors driving change in livelihoods and well-being. our findings show that the triple challenges of acute land scarcity, low capabilities and a sluggish non-farm economy lock together to form a nexus which limits sustained poverty escapes. in the regression analysis, households headed by primary school graduates are half as likely to be poor as those headed by a primary school dropouts while secondary completion or higher virtually eliminates the risk of poverty. despite demand, secondary school completion in the fieldwork is beyond the reach of most children from poor households, limiting their later options for livelihood diversification. near landlessness constrains accumulation and rwanda�s thin rural non-farm economy provides few jobs or opportunities for self-employment. rebooting poverty reduction in rwanda particularly following the covid-19 pandemic will require finding ways to sustain poverty escapes through fuelling job-rich �growth from below� by generating additional demand in the rural economy, continuing to boost agricultural productivity and including even the poorest peasant farmers in that, creating a more conducive business environment for small enterprises and continuing to stimulate investment in job-rich enterprise. underpinning these strategies should be strengthened efforts to enhance capabilities, education quality, and progression into secondary education. 34. title: sustaining escapes from poverty authors: vidya diwakar, andrew shepherd abstract: the objectives of this research are to identify the difference between sustained and temporary poverty escapes for policy and program design, based on research in bangladesh, cambodia, ethiopia, kenya, malawi, nepal, niger, the philippines, rwanda, tanzania, and uganda. the method adopted is the q-squared method used in studies on the dynamics of poverty, embedded in a conceptual extension of the capability approach through a risk chain analysis. the results show that key livelihood factors conducive to sustained escapes include diversification of economic activities typically spanning agricultural and off-farm sectors, and sometimes involving rural-urban migration. important tangible assets include general asset holdings of consumer durables, farm or business equipment, livestock, and electricity. intangible assets include the completion of at least lower secondary education of the household head, good health, and different forms of social relationships and networks. however, while livelihood strategies help improve income and build assets necessary for resilience, various risks permeate. in these risky contexts, the study finds that the enabling environment is critical in determining whether households can ultimately sustain escapes from poverty. interactive features of this environment that are conducive to sustained escapes include context-specific pro-poor policy and infrastructure, for example around livestock insurance, climate-smart agriculture alongside predictable disaster risk management, universal health coverage, and supporting a negotiated approach to norm change. together, these features place an emphasis on collective risk management, beyond a focus only or even primarily on inclusive growth policies. the paper argues that it is essential to understand the circumstances in which people live, from the local (micro) up to the societal (macro) contexts that can influence their ability to sustain a poverty escape, and respond in ways that together address the multifaceted sources of risk and vulnerability, which in turn allows for the less interrupted development of people�s capabilities. 35. title: women�s empowerment and gender equality in south asian agriculture: measuring progress using the project-level women�s empowerment in agriculture index (pro-weai) in bangladesh and india authors: agnes quisumbing, ruth meinzen-dick, hazel malapit abstract: this introduction to a special section describes how a recently developed measure, the project-level women�s empowerment in agriculture index (pro-weai) can be used to assess empowerment impacts of agricultural development interventions in india and bangladesh as well as broader changes in rural labor markets. the special section comprises three papers. the first examines the impact of membership in self-help groups in five states in rural india on women�s and men�s empowerment and gender equality. the second presents experimental evidence from a pilot project in bangladesh that provided trainings in agricultural extension, nutrition behavior change communication, and gender sensitization to husbands and wives together. the third investigates changes in women�s roles within the jute value chain in the southern delta region of bangladesh as household members migrate out of the study area and the availability of male labor declines. although these papers focus on bangladesh and india, pro-weai can be applied to impact assessments of agricultural development projects more generally. the three papers show both the usefulness of this new measure in detecting changes in empowerment indicators within the lifespan of a project and the value of having explicit empowerment objectives in agricultural development projects. the papers also demonstrate the value of having data on both men and women so that project designers can be more intentional about including both of them and monitoring outcomes for both to promote more gender equitable outcomes. 36. title: the political behavior of family firms: evidence from brazil authors: pablo bal�n, juan dodyk, ignacio puente abstract: we study the political behavior of family firms, the most prevalent corporate structure across the developing world. we argue that family firms are more politically active because their longer time horizons enable them to build and sustain relationships with political actors and to extract benefits from their political investments. combining previously untapped firm-level information on family ties in publicly listed brazilian firms with data on corporate campaign contributions, we document that family firms are 15 percentage points more likely to contribute to political campaigns compared to non-family firms � an 82 percent increase. we also find that individuals with family ties in a firm�s leadership positions are more likely to make 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